We shouldn't take South Dakota for granted - hit the phones people.
Thu May 29, 2008 at 10:03:32 PM PDT
Today, the AP came out with an article, which stated that the South Dakota Democratic presidential primary was going to be close. Kossack bawbie wrote a scathing diary, posted a few hours ago, extremely critical of that AP story.
The diarist noted how surrounding states had gone for Obama overwhelmingly and noted how popular Barack was with Native Americans who are the state's largest ethnic minority. I certainly hope bawbie is right, the logic of his arguments are sound, but, with all due respect, I don't think we should assume that this is going to be an easy victory.
The main reason I am becoming concerned about South Dakota is due to my experience phone banking for Barack to that state today. Of the 4 targeted voters whom I spoke with, one had voted for Hillary, one stated that he would not vote for Barack, one simply hung up when I identified myself and why I was calling, and one was undecided. The number I called were in Sioux Falls and Rapid City, major urban centers by that state's standard.
I have phone banked to other states before, including states where Barack lost, and have never seen such unfriendly territory. Granted, I may have just had a bad day and you can't make too much out of such a small sample, but I would have expected to find at least one Obama supporter in a state where he was going to win handily.
As a side issue, it should be noted that there was only one poll conducted on the Dem primary in SD. This poll, was conducted about 6 weeks ago and showed Obama leading by 12 points. HOWEVER, the sample for the state was tiny with a MOE of 6%. I think most people on this site would agree that it is a mistake to get complacent on one poll. It is not unreasonable to think that the race has tightened since then. Especially as Hillary has been hitting the state, hard. I hope that Barack gets out there soon.
South Dakota, with is 15 delegates, isn't that important as far as the mathematics of the nominating process. However, being one of the last two states that vote give it a psychological importance belies its small size. Here's a quote from the AP article mentioned in this diary's intro that I think few here will disagree with.
The last two primaries in the Democratic race, South Dakota and neighboring Montana, whose voters will distribute 16 delegates the same day, provide a final opportunity to display vote-getting power that might sway uncommitted superdelegates nationwide.
I hope that bawbie and everybody else who posted comments to his diary are right and that my concerns turn out to be unfounded. Let's not take the chance. Start hitting those phones!
Update As request in the comments, here is the link to the campaign's phone bank.