The Red State of Texas is turning blue. New polling today suggests that across the board, Texas needs to be added to the cadre of states considered competitive for both President and Senate. New Rasmussen data proves it. Let's look at the very surprising Numbers.
First, the Senate Seat, which is probably the easiest race and probably the most important. Getting a 6 year Senate seat is Crucial; getting John Cornyn out of the Senate is simply Moral.
It’s time to add United States Senator John Cornyn to the list of potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents in Election 2008. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state find Cornyn leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega by just four percentage points, 47% to 43%. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. That is especially true when a little known challenger is so competitive in an early general election match-up.
This has got to be a shot in the arm to the DNC and TDC.
Noreiga leads among voters earning less than $40,000 a year. Cornyn leads among those with higher incomes. Cornyn leads among Evangelical Christian voters and other Protestants. Noreiga leads among those with a different faith background. Both candidates do well within their own party and are fairly evenly matched among unaffiliated voters.
This race is a Toss-Up. Learn more about the Candidate here. You can Donate to Rick today at his Act Blue Page. Rick is also a Feingold supported Progressive Patriot if you were unaware. Here is the candidate on Youtube speaking to Young Democrats.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey find McCain leading Clinton 49% to 43%. Against Obama, McCain attracts 48% of the vote while the Democrat earns 43%.
While the topline results are the same, the dynamics of the race is different depending upon the Democratic candidate. Clinton attracts 82% of the vote from Democrats in the state while Obama gets just 69%. However, Obama and McCain are essentially even among unaffiliated voters while Clinton trails by seventeen among unaffiliateds.
Just 67% of those who vote for Clinton against McCain would also vote for Obama. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Obama voters would also vote for Clinton.
McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of Texas voters, Obama by 51%, and Clinton by 45%. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama.
It's great to see both candidates close in Texas. 6% or 5% are both doable odds. Having McCain under 50%, even though his favorables are at 58% is certainly news to me. It seems that Obama has the groundwork to get a win in texas and Clinton has a bit of a tougher road to hold.
In my opinion, the fact that Obama's support is a crossection of Democrats and Independents bodes well for his chances to keep the race competitive. In the end, when the party unifies, in states like Texas, Obama will begin polling better. Having Noriega in the race for Senate will drive up Hispanic participation and having Obama at the top of the ticket will drive up African American Participation. If Obama is able to capture Noriega's voters, possibly by campaigning and coordinating with him, while retaining his hold on the Independents, I'd say Obama can make Texas a Toss up.
Hillary on the other hand has that 17% deficit with Independents. I honestly don't see how she gets beyond that. And I really don't see Clinton contesting a state like Texas, even though for a Candidate like Noriega, having a competitive Presidential race in Texas, to drive up Democratic Turnout, could create a Democratic Seat Pick Up.
The way I see it, if Obama is the Nominee, He has a shot at Texas's 32 Electorial College Votes, greater infact than any election in 20+ years IMO. Down here in Houston, we're busily preparing to join Obama's Registration efforts on May 10th.
Saturday I did my part and attended a class where I was deputized to register voters in Harris County Texas, Noriega's homebase and Obama's Stronghold. Harris County has countless unregistered voters and the County has aimed at registering 200,000 new voters between now and October 6th. Our own efforts with the local Obama organization has set it's sight on 2400 new voters to be found on May 10th alone, and we're busy setting up stations around the city at Malls, High School Graduations, Flea Markets and other places to find the general Population and get them registered to Vote. Harris County trends heavily Democratic, and if you go into the right areas, you'll essentially manufactur 75%+ new Democrats just by randomly registering people to vote.
If you live in Texas, Know that we have some very competitive Races on our hands and join the efforts on May 10th in the following Locations.
