Daily Kos

Two Clinton superdelegates waver. (UPDATE with another waverer.)

Mon May 05, 2008 at 07:59:44 AM PDT

The Los Angeles Times reports from the past weekend's California Democratic Council meeting [EDITED for correct name of the CDC] that a couple of superdelegates pledged to Hillary Clinton made comments that they would reconsider their support.  While neither committed like Joe Andrew last week, their statements reveal an end game at hand in the Democratic nomination process.

Christopher Stampolis of Santa Clara, a superdelegate who endorsed Clinton after the Iowa caucuses, said that he remained in the New York senator's camp but that his commitment expired with the end of the primaries.

"When it's done, all of us, whether we're committed or not, we're going to take a look" at the final eight contests, said Stampolis, who until recently worked in external relations for a Bay Area environmental firm. "Our job is to represent the constituents who trusted us to win the White House."

Garry Shay, a Los Angeles attorney, said that if Clinton remained about 150 pledged delegates behind Obama, the current estimated margin, he would have to "reassess the entirety of the situation."

"It doesn't mandate me switching," he said, "but it does mandate me reconsidering."

Are these comments guarantees that either Stampolis or Shay are certain to switch to Obama?  No, however they are indications that the end of the nomination race will be the first week of June, not the convention in August.  The hopes in the Clinton camp that superdelegates will consider Obama unelectable appear to have no basis in reality.  Now with Joe Andrew's switch, superdelegates who committed to Clinton now have an opening to change sides.  Whether any will take the stand Andrew took and switch with a handful of states left to vote is hard to say.  This weekend's comments from California indicate that many will move when the primaries end in June.  Since Obama is now within 300 total delegates of securing the nomination and will add a chunk of those through the states left to vote and add-ons (and, potentially, much of the freshman House class that is staying unannounced in their support until the conclusion of the primaries), it will not take many superdelegates changing sides to officially end this race.

The Clinton campaign is continuing this race despite Obama's insurmountable pledged delegate lead because (as the campaign has stated) superdelegates can use their discretion for the good of the party, and if Clinton can convince superdelegates that Obama is unelectable they will move to her.  Already-committed superdelegates are reconsidering their support at this stage in the race, and to my knowledge none of them are ones who are wavering in their support of Obama after a couple of months of nasty campaigning.  That two of Clinton's superdelegates are making these statements now may disabuse her campaign that she has a path to the nomination.

Thanks to The Field for the link.

UPDATE:  Stampolis and Shay are not alone.  The Washington Post  reported over the weekend that DC-area superdelegates pledged to Clinton are making similar statements.

"This is the most stressful thing I've been through in my whole life," said Virginia Del. Jennifer L. McClellan (D-Richmond), a superdelegate who endorsed Clinton last year but is now wavering. "It was never supposed to be like this...."
Of the 27 superdelegates in Maryland, nine are pledged to Clinton, including Gov. Martin O'Malley and Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski. Of the 16 superdelegates from Virginia, six are pledged to Clinton. Her superdelegate support in Virginia includes Del. Lionell Spruill Sr. (D-Chesapeake), who, like McClellan, is African American and unsure whether he will stick with Clinton.

"I'll decide after the primaries," Spruill said last week.

Spruill's comment is the strongest statement of wavering in the Post article, which mostly focuses on the pressure applied to superdelegates.  An interesting read, one that supports the view that superdelegates have no desire to overturn the results of the primaries.

Thanks to debrazza for mentioning this story.

Tags: 2008, elections, president, primaries, Democratic Party, superdelegates, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, California, Christopher Stampolis, Gary Shay (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

View Comments | 29 comments