TX-Sen, Pres: Texas is in play all around

Texas is purple this year.

First of, the Senate race:

Rasmussen. 5/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Cornyn (R) 47
Noriega (D) 43

That is nothing short of remarkable, and a hint that this may be a top-tier race before long. Research 2000 is polling Texas for me over the next couple of days, with results due on Thursday, so we'll have a second poll to compare to this one. Outlier or trend? We'll soon see. But don't forget (especially you super delegates), this is all post-Wright.

In the presidential, Democrats will be hugely competitive:

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 43

McCain (R) 49
Clinton (D) 43

It's even better for Obama than the numbers above indicate.

            Total  Male  Female  Rep   Dem
McCain  (R)  48     45     52     80    16
Obama   (D)  43     47     40     17    69

McCain  (R)  49     52     46     85     7  
Clinton (D)  43     40     47     13    82

Clinton supporters are being a bit ornery here, but given it's mostly women supporters, they'll have to choose between holding the grudge all the way into November and letting McCain deliver a solid anti-Choice Supreme Court in the next four years (Stevens is 88 and Ginsburg 75). Ultimately, both candidates would rally the base, and there's no doubt that Obama will score better than 69 percent of the Democratic vote and 40 percent of women.

McCain will be constrained by public financing and his own fundraising incompetence, facing a cash-flush Barack Obama. The last thing he needs to do is be forced to defend a huge, expensive state like Texas. But that looks like exactly what will happen this fall.

Perhaps the single biggest gain of this long primary season was the activation of Texas' Latino voters, something long promised but frustratingly elusive. And for that, we have the Clinton campaign to thanks. And even though she won't be on the ballot this November, the combination of Noriega and Obama will hopefully keep them as engaged through this election season as they were back in March. (Unfortunately, Ras didn't break out his sample by ethnicity and race.)

But Obama has made his contributions as well -- his activation of the youth vote is a key factor in the expansion of the Democrats' map this year. Noriega wins the 18-29 cohort by a stunning 61-25. How's that for a taste of the future of Texas politics? The youth vote is a strong factor in the presidential as well:

           18-29  30-39  40-49  50-64  65 and up
McCain  (R)  28     45     51     55     58
Obama   (D)  56     54     42     39     27

McCain  (R)  28     54     44     54     55  
Clinton (D)  59     38     48     39     39

That is a stark generational divide between Obama, McCain and Clinton. Obama crushes McCain with the under-40 crowd, and gets crushed above that line. Clinton is competitive up to the age of 50 (probably thanks to her strong support among boomer women). The 71-year-old McCain represents the past.

Again, that foretells a bright future for Texas Democrats.

p.s. Bush has a weak 39 percent approval rating in his own home state. It's fun seeing his incompetent ass bring down his entire party with him. It's the least we can expect given what he's done to this country and world the last seven+ years.