Poll Visibility Advice for Primaries

In this primary season, I've volunteered for Obama in three different primaries (New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Vermont).

But the biggest surprise for me was the number of people who come to the polls without having made up their mind who they are voting for.  Some people literally haven't picked a candidate until minutes before they fill out the ballot. This makes them VERY susceptible to last minute influence (the recency effect in psychology). Although it varies significantly by contest, we know that as much as 9% of the electorate make their decision the day they vote (and probably 1/3 of those at the polls), and I would guess another 3% can still be swayed by poll-place experiences. In close elections, like today in Indiana, this can make a big difference.

Hence the importance of having a presence (visibility) at the poll places.

But visibility itself isn't enough, there seem, in my own unscientific analysis, to be better and worse ways of influencing people at this crucial moment.

Details after the fold.

Poll Visibility advice, an ad-hoc guide:

The first 3 points assume you are the one coordinating visibility:

1. Basic Visibility

The main strategy, in use everywhere, is to get as many people as possible to stand near the polls holding signs and showing their support and excitement for a particular candidate. This seems to work best early in the election cycle when it is still a multi-person (over 3) slate as it was in New Hampshire. Having people holding a candidate's sign, legitimates the candidate as a selection (bandwagon effect in psychology). So for example, the complete absence of Gravel supporters in New Hampshire made it clear to people, if it wasn't before, that he stood no chance.

In basic visibility people just stand around with signs and use warm bodies to show support for a candidate, but there are other things that can be done to effect the outcome.

2. Community Members

Often at polling places there are a number of out of town students effectively bused in to show their support for Obama. This works for basic visibility, but doesn't really help that much. It can even alienate older voters and community residence who see a bunch of students in say New Hampshire, with Columbia University shirts and Obama signs. It reinforces the cliche that Obama has only won young people from outside the area and while some folks enjoy the excitement. It won't sway a lot of people.

It is better if you can get people to stand near the polls who are respected members of the community. I remember in Vermont standing in the rain with a older cardiac surgeon who lived and worked in the area. People would recognize Doctor Such-and-such and show surprise that he was supporting Obama. They would talk to him, sometimes at length, and I know he was much more effective than I was at getting people to look at Obama differently and I know he changed some votes.

3. Present a Desired Demographic

Also, on the same day an older retired woman, who had driven up from Massachusetts was good at connecting with other retirees and helping other older women embrace Obama. In that sense, the degree to which Obama supporters at the polls can mirror the demographic of the community (even if they come from elsewhere) they can have a bigger impact, because people seeks folks like them (or like they want to be) supporting a candidate. A basic strategy in advertising.

I'm not saying student should stay home, but perhaps it would be good for students to swap with folks possible (and do phonebanking etc) while maximizing the number of locals at the polls.

In summary, I suspect that if possible the poll visibility should be filled with people in the target demographic (aka the demographic of the community with in this case extra-older women) as well as upstanding members of the community. It is probably even worth pulling this type of person off of last minute phone banking to bring them to the polls.

But ok. Say you are already volunteering at the poll, what can you do?

As I'm sure you all know, when you stand in front of the polls with your candidate's paraphernalia you represent them. You become their surrogate and people's impression of the candidate can be changed by the way you behave.

4. Making a Connection

This might seem obvious, but it is important not just to be seen, but to connect with people coming to the polls. But most of the time I've been at polls Obama supporters just stand around talking to each other. Sure it is fun to hang and get to know like minded folks, but we could be making a bigger difference.

Instead, in a non-aggressive way, you can reach out to people as they walk up to the polls. Try and connect with them ask them how they are doing, if they've made up their mind yet, etc.Don't over do it.  Or be pushy. But you'd be surprised how much difference this can make. I remember talking to one person who wanted to know details about Clinton and Obama's respective Iraq exit strategies. If I hadn't talked to her and asked her how she was doing and if she'd made up her mind, she probably would have just voted for Clinton. Again, only 1 vote, but every vote counts.

Similarly, I've helped old people out of their cars and held open doors. Carried umbrellas, etc. This lets people see you as a nice person and Obama becomes a nice person by association. You should of course do this for Clinton supporters as well, which brings me to my next point:

5. Supporters of the Rival Candidate

People actually seem to expect hostility from supporters of the rival candidate, and I remember personally being jeered at by a group of grumpy old Clinton ladies. But the most important thing to remember is that we are all really on the same side, and will be needing their support in the fall. So even if they are steady in their support for someone else, it can make a huge difference down the road to reach out and be nice to them.

Just some hastily formed suggestions.

If you include other suggestions (or your experiences) in the comments I'll update this dairy.