Hillary 2008 is now McCain 2008

In brief:

1.  Hillary Clinton has no chance at winning in the fall if she is nominated.

2.  She knows and believes she can’t win.  She is not a fool.

3.  Therefore, she must intend the consequences of her actions: to help McCain win the election.

Let's stop making excuses for her and face the ugly, but much simpler, truth.

An analysis follows ...

The first issue is whether Hilary Clinton can win in the fall if she is nominated.  

The general rule is that in today’s political climate, a candidate without the base of her party has no chance of winning.  I don’t have the energies tonight to explore how wedge issues destroy a candidate if they do not have a base to rely on.  Instead, I simply ask you infer from the 2000 and 2004 “one state to win it” elections that it would be political suicide for the Democratic Party to alienate the majority of its own party.  

Let’s say, by some miracle, Hillary Clinton stays in until the convention and then gets the nomination.  How will Obama supporters react?  Do you think it will help or hurt turnout in the fall?  Forget for a moment what should happen. It’s one thing to personally say “I’ll support the nominee.”  Think of what will happen for everyone else, that you don’t know and can’t convince to go vote for Hillary in November.  When they stay home, we’ll lose.  

In contrast, when Obama is nominated, there will need to be no delegate contortion for it to happen.  The longstanding primary rules will not need to be broken.  The super delegates will not veto the people’s delegates.  The process will function as it should.  That’s a far less incindiary situation for the party.  And futhermore, any harm that the Obama nomination will cause to party unity is a direct result of the continued campaigning of someone who has no legitimate path to nomination.  The longer she stays in while her chances fade, the more she owns the division she’s creating.

I think it’s self-evident that if Hillary is nominated, she will alienate a huge portion of the party.  I believe it follows in light of recent elections that without her base, she cannot win in the fall.   And what’s more, I believe Hillary Clinton knows that.

So the second question is whether Hillary Clinton is foolish enough to believe otherwise (or broke enough, or crazy enough, pick your favorite easy-to-swallow explanation here.)  It’s convenient to assign to Hillary Clinton some excuse other than an intension to hurt Obama in the general or lose herself to McCain.  It helps us avoid some very nasty conclusions about the state of the nation (and our party) at the moment.

Is it that she needs to pay off millions of dollars in campaign debt?  Are we to believe  that Hillary is in it to pay off her debts, despite 120 Million in personal wealth, and a career path that includes multimillion dollar book deals and $100k a pop speaking fees like her spouse.  I think that’s quite a leap to say she needs the money.

Are we to believe she is stupid?  Hillary?  No way.  That simply is not reasonable to believe.

Is it some complex psychiatric problem?  Or simple human nature?  Again, all leaps.  

If Hillary Clinton punched you in the gut and took your wallet, would you spend time analyzing whether she intended to pay back her campaign debt, or was too foolish to have intended to rob you, or had agressive-politician disorder?  No.  You’d say she’s a bright, grown woman, and that the simplest explanation is she intended the consequences of her actions.

So let’s face up to the consequence of her actions:  She’s campaigning for McCain now, not Hillary.  This is McCain 2008 who is fighting for the Democratic nomination.

If this seems too crazy, do some research into McCain and Hillary’s cozy friendship; it has been diaried to death on this site.  Then ask yourself:  at this point, who does Hillary want in the White House if it can’t be her, Obama or McCain?