The Granite State Poll has its
fall numbers (link is PDF): (Summer numbers in parenthesis):
Dean 30 (16)
Undecided 20 (30)
Kerry 17 (18)
Clark 10 (3)
Lieberman 6 (11)
Edwards 5 (2)
Gephardt 5 (3)
Kucinich 3 (0)
Sharpton 1 (1)
Braun 1 (1)
One interesting point about this poll is the discussion, on page 2, about how little endorsements really matter in campaigns:
While endorsements by politicians are often sought by candidates for office, most endorsments have little impact on elections ...When asked about Shaheen's endorsement [of Kerry] on their vote, 15 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said that Shaheen's endorsement made them more likely to vote for Kerry, 7 percent said it made them less likely to vote for Kerry, 76 percent said it would make no difference...
Note that "more likely" is not the same as "will definitely vote for". So while the Shaheen endorsement is nice to have, it won't really have an effect on the race. Very few endorsements would (perhaps Bill Clinton and Al Gore).
Also note the poll's small sample size -- 274. Take with appropriate grain of salt (like any other poll).
Meanwhile, a
McLaughin poll of "Democrats with a history of caucus attendance" in Iowa shows a three-way race between Dean, Gep, and Kerry. (No trend lines)
Dean 23
Undecided 22
Gephardt 20
Kerry 17
Clark 7
Note that any poll that filters for "history of caucus attendance" will underreport Dean's and perhaps Clark's support. Those are guys that will bring out people who have never voted in caucuses before and whose supporters are rabid about their guy.