House and Senate Roundup: Primary Day!

In addition to the Montana and South Dakota Presidential primaries, which should finally seal the nomination of Barack Obama, there are several primaries being held around the country today for non-Presidential races. In addition to the standard roundup news, below is a brief listing of races to watch.

Senate Races

NM-Sen: As many of you know, all three of New Mexico's Congressfolk entered the race for U.S. Senate this year to fill the seat of the retiring Pete Domenici. Democratic Rep. Tom Udall (NM-03) stands alone on our side, while Republicans Steve Pearce (NM-02) and Heather Wilson (NM-01) have slugged it out for the bad guys.

The latest polling from SurveyUSA shows their race essentially deadlocked: Pearce draws 48% to Wilson's 47%.

Happily, both candidates are as the proverbial sacrificial lamb in the general election: Udall leads them both by an overwhelming margin, 60% to 35% over Pearce, and 60% to 36% over Wilson.

Udall may not win the general by 20+ points, but it's hard to see how the proudly right-wing Pearce and the ethically damaged Wilson can catch him.

CO-Sen: Tom Udall's cousin Mark, of course, is also running for the Senate, from Colorado, and enjoys a (much smaller) lead in his own race.

Mark Udall has just released a new TV ad on national security. The ad is the essence of simplicity, in a good way:

Meanwhile, Udall's opponent, the hapless Bob Schaffer, is the target of yet another hilarious DSCC "Road to Victory" video, once again playing on Schaffer's disastrous first ad. Apparently, Schaffer's knowledge of Colorado geography is inferior not only to Mark Udall's, but to that of small children as well.

It's rather impressive that Schaffer, whose mistakes have been manifold since he entered the race, is still competitive in this race. He's been an almost Romneyesque easy target so far.

NJ-Sen: Today is primary day, and incumbent Democratic Senator Frank Lautenberg is expected to win fairly comfortably against his primary opponent, Congressman Rob Andrews, though one never knows how turnout will affect this race.

The primary hasn't always been courtly, of course, but as the race ends, here's a lighthearted video made by some of Andrews' volunteers (posted at Blue Jersey), which will hopefully make some folks smile:

We'll have results for you tonight once the race is called.

House Races

TX-10: IVR Polls has some thrilling news for us, if their latest poll is accurate: Republican incumbent Michael McCaul leads Democrat Larry Joe Doherty, attorney and star of the television show "Texas Justice", by just six points, 52% to 46%.

In 2006, IVR released a poll showing McCaul vulnerable, and while many were skeptical of the poll at the time, the final election results indicated that it was likely correct; McCaul received just 55% of the vote against a badly underfunded challenger.

Doherty has been a decent enough fundraiser, and if he really enjoys this kind of support now, he stands a real chance of taking down McCaul in an R+13 district.

IL-11: In an open-seat race (and Democratic pickup opportunity) that is already widely listed as "Leans Democratic", Democrat Debbie Halvorson currently holds a double-digit lead over Republican Marty Ozinga, 43% to 32%.

This is a long way from over, but one can't complain so far.

MN-01: Former netroots candidate and current U.S. Rep. Tim Walz holds Grand Canyon-sized leads over his Republican opponents, Dick Day and Brian Davis.

The seat leans slightly Republican, R+1, and Walz was high on the Republicans' list of Dems to target this cycle. This kind of performance from their top candidates is pathetic, and speaks to the sorry state of today's Republican Party.

CA-04, CA-42: Two primary-day races that should be of special interest to Kossacks today are the Fourth District Republican primary, between Conservative Icon Tom McClintock and former Rep. Doug Ose, and the 42nd District Democratic primary, between Kossack Ron Shepston and fellow Democrat Ed Chau.

We'll have the results when they're clear tonight.

NJ-03, NJ-07: More primary day excitement. While Democrats John Adler and Linda Stender are the presumptive nominees in their races (and both are well-positioned for the general election), Republicans are scuffling for the nomination in both districts for these open-seat races. In the 3rd District, GOPer Chris Myers probably has a slight edge over Jack Kelly, while Repubs Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman lead the pack in the Seventh.

IA-03: In one of the most serious primary challenges to a incumbent Democrat, Rep. Leonard Boswell faces a challenge from the left from former state legislator Ed Fallon, who lost a 2006 bid for governor to fellow Dem Chet Culver.

Boswell's district is a swing district; Bush and Kerry each drew 50% there, and Gore won 49-48. Boswell has enjoyed a comfortable lead in polling to date, and it's very likely that he will prevail tonight.