House and Senate Roundup, 7/22

AK-Sen: Here's a terrific poll. Maybe it is an outlier, but it's notable anyway.

Rasmussen. 7/17. MoE 4.5%. (6/26 numbers in parentheses)

Begich  (D) 50 (44)
Stevens    (R) 41 (46)

Begich has 63% favorables, an eye-popping number. If that's accurate, and he can maintain it, he's in great shape.

He also has a new ad up:

CO-Sen: CQ Politics is not digging the electoral prospects of Bob Schaffer.

CQ Politics is changing its rating of the high-profile Colorado Senate race to reflect a slight edge for Udall, who is facing Republican former Rep. Bob Schaffer.

By shifting the rating of the Colorado Senate race to "Leans Democratic" from "No Clear Favorite," CQ Politics now considers Udall as a narrow front-runner in a highly competitive race that had been previously classified as a toss-up. Udall, who represents the Boulder area, and Schaffer, who represented Colorado’s eastern plains from 1997 through 2002 and sought Colorado’s other Senate seat in 2004, are unopposed in their party’s primaries on August 12.

They're a bit late to the "Lean Dem" party, but all is one.

KS-Sen: Jim Slattery is on the air, and he's hitting hard.

KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell is running an ad which blames gas-tax increases, and consequently his opponent Bruce Lunsford, for the high price of gasoline. Fortunately, Mitchie gets his just desert from the press:

McConnell's commercial is essentially dishonest.

But that's not the worst of it.

He's confusing an already perplexing picture at a time when the country desperately needs to hear the truth. We need campaigns that illuminate the nation's challenges, and energy is at the top of that list. Until we understand where we are and how we got here, we can't build a more secure future.

Hear, hear.

McConnell's misleading ad isn't unexpected. Manipulation has long been his strong suit, and the senior senator must be very pleased with the way his ad uses Lunsford's own words against him.

But this dishonesty from McConnell is disappointing all the same. It's a discredit to his lofty position and an insult to the people who have kept him in Washington for 24 years.

Savage.

House Races

NE-02: Who does Lee Terry have managing his campaign?

David Boomer, of whom it was written at My Left Nutmeg in 2006:

Nancy Johnson's campaign manager David Boomer strikes me as about as low a form of amoebic slime as one finds in politics. Boomer has led a dirty campaign against Chris Murphy and now, as Murphy's challenge is conceded by the NRCC as likely to unseat Johnson in a wave, Boomer reaches deep into the barrel of Republican smears like those used against Harold Ford and Mike Arcuri, and accused Murphy of buddying up with drug dealers.

Fortunately, Boomer's underhanded tactics backfired badly in 2006, as Chris Murphy won election by 12 points. We'll see if he's as low this time out, as Terry faces the race of his life against Democrat Jim Esch.

AL-03: Sen. Russ Feingold is holding a fundraiser for Democratic candidate Josh Segall.  

The low-dollar event — it costs just $25 to get in — takes place from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. at Union Pub, on the Senate side.

Segall has been highly touted by Democratic House leaders but faces an uphill climb both politically and on the financial front. Through June 30, he had $411,000 in his campaign account while Rogers banked more than $1.1 million.

Incumbent Republican Mike Rogers has other friends to help him:

Meanwhile, Vice President Cheney is coming to Alabama to help Rogers — and every other Republican on the Magnolia State ballot this November.

Feingold versus Cheney. Let the games begin!

CA-11: In a truly weak year for Republican recruiting, the GOP is now getting punked even by their good recruits.

One of the most highly touted GOP House recruits is turning out to be one of the party’s weakest fundraisers, a development that has national Republicans wondering whether a prime opportunity to pick off a vulnerable Democratic freshman is slipping away.

Former GOP California state Assemblyman Dean Andal raised only $190,500 in the most recent fundraising period, marking the fourth straight quarter he has raised less than $200,000 in his race against Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.).

Andal ended June with $663,000 in his campaign account, a respectable total but well short of the money necessary to fully advertise in the expensive Sacramento and San Francisco media markets. With the National Republican Congressional Committee facing an expansive field of races and limited resources, there may not be enough national money to help him make up the difference.

As for Congressman McNerney himself? $416K last quarter, $1.3 million on hand, $2.1 million raised in toto.

KY-03: Rep. John Yarmuth has a solid lead, albeit not as strong a lead as SUSA had previously shown. Their latest, with June numbers in parentheses:

Yarmuth  (D) 53 (57)
Northup    (R) 43 (40)

Yarmuth is still over 50%, which is great, especially considering that Northup, the district's former Rep and a former gubernatorial candidate, hardly lacks for name rec.