MS-Sen: Neck and neck, and look at Obama

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/21-23. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/22 results)

Wicker (R) 45 (46)
Musgrove (D) 44 (42)

Looks like float within the MoE. This one is tight. Note, there was a methodological difference in this poll from the last -- we omitted the party ID of the candidates since the ballot will omit them. Ultimately, it seemed to make little difference.

And check out the presidential:

McCain (R) 51 (54)
Obama (D) 42 (39)

Obama is getting 19 percent of the white vote in this poll, just shy of the 20 percent DavidNYC identified as key for winning the state. The second part of that equation is to boost African American turnout in the state to 40 percent of the total vote. In this poll, African Americans represent 37 percent of the vote. The undecided African American vote -- 15 percent (!) -- will come down for Obama. Now it's a question of turning them out in historic numbers.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

Mississippi Poll
July 21-23, 2008, 600 likely voters

Sample Figures:

Men        289       49%
Women      311       51%

Dem        242       40%
Rep        267       45%
Ind         91       15%

White      368       63%
Black      222       37%

18-29      108       18%
30-44      186       31%
45-59      192       32%
60+        114       19%

Delta/Jack 223       37%
NE         162       27%
SE         215       36%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ronnie Musgrove?

         Very                          Very       No
         Fav       Fav       Unfav     Unfav     Opinion

All       16%       32%       27%       14%       11%

Men       14%       29%       31%       16%       10%
Women     18%       35%       23%       12%       12%

Dem       26%       44%       13%        8%        9%
Rep        7%       21%       41%       20%       11%
Ind       17%       32%       25%       13%       13%

18-29     19%       36%       24%       10%       11%
30-44     16%       32%       26%       14%       12%
45-59     15%       31%       28%       15%       11%
60+       14%       29%       30%       17%       10%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roger Wicker?

         Very                          Very       No
         Fav       Fav       Unfav     Unfav     Opinion

All       17%       34%       26%       13%       10%

Men       20%       37%       23%       11%        9%
Women     14%       31%       29%       15%       11%

Dem        8%       20%       38%       21%       13%
Rep       26%       48%       15%        6%        5%
Ind       15%       31%       26%       13%       15%

18-29     13%       30%       31%       17%        9%
30-44     16%       33%       27%       15%        9%
45-59     19%       36%       23%       11%       11%
60+       20%       37%       23%        9%       11%

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Ronnie Musgrove or Roger Wicker?

         Wicker    Musgrove  Undecided

All        45%       44%       11%

Men        49%       41%       10%
Women      41%       47%       12%

Dem         6%       85%        9%
Rep        81%        6%       13%
Ind        43%       46%       11%

White      67%       26%        7%
Black       8%       75%       17%

18-29      40%       49%       11%
30-44      45%       45%       10%
45-59      47%       42%       11%
60+        48%       40%       12%

Delta/Jack 40%       51%        9%
NE         49%       39%       12%
SE         47%       41%       12%

If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican ?

         McCain    Obama     Undecided

All        51%       42%        7%

Men        54%       37%        9%
Women      42%       47%       11%

Dem        10%       84%        6%
Rep        89%        5%        6%
Ind        51%       40%        9%

White      78%       19%        3%
Black       4%       81%       15%

18-29      46%       47%        7%
30-44      53%       40%        7%
45-59      52%       41%        7%
60+        54%       38%        8%

Delta/Jack 45%       49%        6%
NE         56%       37%        7%
SE         54%       38%        8%

Do you approve or disapprove of the  job George W. Bush is doing as  President?

        Approve   Disapprove  Not Sure

All       40%       59%        1%

Men       43%       56%        1%
Women     37%       62%        1%

Dem        5%       95%
Rep       73%       25%        2%
Ind       37%       62%        1%

18-29     31%       68%        1%
30-44     41%       58%        1%
45-59     43%       56%        1%
60+       45%       54%        1%