House and Senate Race Roundup, 7/28

NM-Sen: This barely qualifies as "news" anymore, but Rasmussen's latest poll shows Democratic Rep. Tom Udall with a big fat wide lead in his Senate race over Republican Steve Pearce. From Rasmussen:

Udall (D) 59
Pearce (R) 34

Udall has enjoyed a consistent 20-30 point polling lead for months now. It's highly likely that that gap will close somewhat before election day, as the anti-Udall ads start to fly from both Pearce's campaign, and third-party organizations.

That said, Udall has run a near-flawless campaign so far, and this race is looking a lot like the Amy Klobuchar/Mark Kennedy Senate race in Minnesota in 2006. If you recall, Klobuchar won that race with 60% of the vote. Whether Udall ends up in that territory or not, it's difficult to see a road to victory for Steve Pearce.

KY-Sen: We noted last week that the Kentucky press has picked up on Mitch McConnell's dishonest demagoguery on gas prices. Now, the campaign of Democratic candidate Bruce Lunsford is out with a new ad, nicely summing up McConnell's treachery.

Op-eds like the ones attacking McConnell on his oil dishonesty are gifts to an opposing candidate, and the Lunsford campaign has used them quite well.

NC-Sen: The Huffington Post noted last week that Elizabeth Dole appears to have supported offshore drilling not before she was against it, but at the same time.

Senator Elizabeth Dole, who is facing reelection this fall, is a recent convert to the GOP issue du-jour: offshore drilling. For a while, the North Carolina Republican was a fierce opponent of the concept, expressing concern that it could damage her state's coastline and thus damage the tourism industry. But now, it seems, she's all for drilling off the North Carolina coast, labeling it an important step to achieving energy independence.

The one problem: Dole's position change came so fast her staff simply couldn't keep up. Right now, the Senator has two completely incongruous statements listed on her official Senate website.

HuffPo even posted screenshots of the two statements, one staunchly opposed to drilling off North Carolina's coast, the other favoring energy exploration.

Well, it seems that Dole's staff has been shamed into fixing their website. Good catch for the Huffington Post.

KS-Sen: Jim Slattery's campaign has launched a new blog, Blog for Kansas.

House Races

TX-10: Mad Rachel reports on Mike McCaul's madrassa madness.

McCaul, it seems, watched a documentary entitled "Karachi Kids" about two young Pakistani-American children who were reportedly being held against their will in a madrassa in Karachi, one which Osama bin Laden had visited prior to 9/11, where they were taught to hate and fear Americans and such.

Good global warrior on terror that he is, McCaul took his battle to the floor of the House, ultimately applying enough pressure to succeed in extricating the poor boys from their captivity. Mad Mike has himself been on Fox News, taking credit for this.

Only thing is, they weren't captives. The particular madrassa at which they studied is well known for being moderate in its teachings, and is recognized as such even by Bush's State Department. The madrassa the documentary makers had in mind was actually across the street from the one they featured.

And the boys were treated well there, learned about the Koran, and seem to be none the worse for wear.

CNN did an entire expose here:

Good one, Rep. McCaul.

ID-01: Well, the good news is that, at long last, Bill Sali has filed his second-quarter FEC report.

This is nearly two weeks late, but you can't have everything.

The bad news, such as it is, is that...well, there isn't much actual good news for Sali. First of all, he came in behind Democrat Walt Minnick for the quarter.

Second, Sali both submitted the wrong number in the "election cycle receipts to date" column, and after claiming that he'd repaid a portion of his existing campaign debt...well, his filing indicates that he actually hasn't.

Third...well, check out this press release from Minnick's campaign:

- Although Sali's congressional spokesman repeatedly told the media that the campaign had paid some of its debts, the report shows that the campaign has not paid off any debt since its last report. Sali's spokesman also told the media that the campaign had raised $155,000 during the reporting period. In fact, the campaign raised almost $20,000 less than that amount, according to the report.

- Sali held a fundraiser on May 6 where he invited oil and gas lobbyists. Although he paid a lunch bill to a Washington, D.C. restaurant for the event, his report oddly shows zero contributions on that day.

- The Sali campaign took more than $6,800 from a family associated with Ameritel Inns in Boise. However, in what appears to be an attempt to circumvent campaign finance laws, the Sali campaign accepted $2,000 from something called the Tax Fairness PAC, even though no such group is registered with the FEC. The address listed for the PAC (10200 Emerald in Boise) is the same as that for the corporate office of Ameritel Inns.

I wonder if Sali will blame brain fade.

IN-03: Roll Call reports on the race between Republican incumbent Mark Souder and his resilient Democratic challenger, 27-year-old attorney Michael Montagano:

Although it might not be his toughest race to date, seven-term Rep. Mark Souder (R-Ind.) said he has no doubt that 2008 is his toughest year yet.

"The year is as tough as any year that I’ve run," Souder said in a phone interview Monday afternoon. "The last time my challenger was a lot tougher. ... But it’s hard to think of a worse year to run as a Republican than this one."

Enter Attorney Mike Montagano (D), this year’s challenger, who had more money in the bank than Souder at the end of June.

At the tender age of 27, Montagano impressed the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee enough to put Indiana’s 3rd district on its list of "emerging" races to watch. Souder is quick to point out that his 2006 opponent, longtime Fort Wayne City Councilmember Thomas Hayhurst, was also on the DCCC’s emerging races list and lost by 8 points.

This is a savagely Republican district, with a PVI of R+16. Still, Hayhurst ran a surprisingly strong campaign in 2006, holding Souder to just 54% of the vote. Given Montagano's fundraising strength, it's conceivable that he, too, could give Souder a run for his money. An upset here would be truly stunning, but not out of the realm of possibility.

FL-13: Rep. Vern Buchanan rode bad ballot design in a Democratic county to a hotly contested victory in 2006.

It appears that his 369-vote victory may also have been due to some illegal campaign contributions, as well. One former employee is claiming that his $1,000 dollar donation to Buchanan for Congress was reimbursed by his employer...Vern Buchanan himself.

Bell, the former finance director at Venice Nissan Dodge, said the day he made a $1,000 donation to the Buchanan campaign, he was given $1,000 in cash from his boss at the auto dealership.

Bell gave the Herald-Tribune bank records, which included copies of a canceled check dated Sept. 17, 2005, to the Buchanan campaign for $1,000 and a cash deposit made to his account the same day for $960. He said he took the rest as spending money.

"I was told I was going to be reimbursed," Bell said. "I either had to do this, or I was told I wouldn't be considered a team player. I took it as a threat. There was no gray area."

Reimbursed? You, er, can't do that. Threatening a reprisal? Also very bad.

Another of Buchanan's employees was apparently promised use of Buchanan's Vail, CO resort house in exchange for a $2,000 donation. As SSP's James L. notes,

This sort of thing is, of course, very illegal.

Whether or not Buchanan has broken federal law, this is hardly good press for a candidate who was extremely fortunate to have eked out a victory in 2006.

OH-02: Jean Schmidt just can't help herself.

By now, most Republicans have given up trying to convince the populace that China is drilling for oil off the coast of Cuba, for as Republican Senator Mel Martinez says, this is just an urban legend.

But Daredevil Jean is undaunted. Her latest fundraising mailer attacks her Democratic opponent Vic Wulsin for, well, calling her out on this lie:

 "Now they've decided to come after me because I stood on the House Floor and pointed out that Cuba was drilling off our shores."

OK...

"While Vic Wulsin's friends in Congress are blocking our bipartisan effort to open up some areas off our coasts to off-shore drilling, the Chinese and others have partnered with Cuba to drill for oil. Now, whether they are drilling on the coast of Cuba or offshore less than 60 miles from Florida, it doesn't change the fact that the Communists in China understand the laws of supply and demand more than the Democrats!"

Frankly, Schmidt sounds almost unhinged as she keeps sticking to her debunked talking points, as Buckeye State Blog notes. Schmidt writes:

Third, please keep me and my family in your prayers. These personal attacks have been taxing on my family and we covet your prayers as we continue in this tough fight for our country.

I would submit that Schmidt is the last Member of Congress who has any right to complain about personal attacks.

AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, Republican candidate for Alaska's sole House seat, apparently thought he could coast into Washington on the coattails of his boss and mentor, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

Only thing is, Palin is enmeshed in quite the scandal, the latest episode of which involved her firing Alaska's top cop, Chuck Kopp (yes, that's really his name).

Alaska -- Gov. Sarah Palin has announced that Public Safety Commissioner Chuck Kopp will step down from his recent appointment.

The announcement this afternoon brings to a close Kopp's brief tenure as the governor's choice to replace former Commissioner Walt Monegan.

...

Palin fired Monegan on July 11 without explanation.

Since nominating Kopp on July 14 the former Kenai police chief has found himself the subject of intense scrutiny over past allegations of sexual harassment.

Kopp had been appointed because the former public safety commissioner, Walt Monergan, had been summarily canned after he declined to fire a personal enemy of Palin's, ostensibly at Palin's request.

So left to his own devices, without Palin to hold his hand, what kind of a candidate is Sean Parnell? The answer is, apparently, "an invisible one".

ANCHORAGE -- A month before the primary election that will decide candidates for congressional races, Alaska Democrats are asking a question: Where is Sean Parnell?

...

But with decision-time looming, Democrats are targeting Parnell, accusing him of ducking campaign forums where he can be grilled on issues.

"We need to know who he is and what he stands for," said Democratic Party Chairwoman Patti Higgins. "We're not getting that."

This may be due to Parnell's unwillingness to actually engage his opponents face-to-face:

The lieutenant governor last Sunday opted to join Gov. Sarah Palin at her annual picnic in Fairbanks rather than face Young and potential Democratic opponents in a candidate forum in Anchorage sponsored by the Alaska Women's Political Caucus.