According to most news sources, the race for the top spot in the new Iraqi government is down to two names.
One of these men is Dr. Ibrahim Jafari. Dr. Jafari's party, Dawa is the second largest in the Iraqi Alliance. Since the other major candidates have stepped aside, Jafari seems to have the inside track to form a new government.
Only one man stands in his way and threatens to tear the fragile alliance apart. You guessed it, it's our man, Ahmad Chalabi.
Yes, hot off his "lie to them and leave them" tour of the U.S. and his handing of intelligence to the Iranians, it's time for more fun with Ahmad.
At first glance, Chalabi, who was #10 on the alliance list and headed up a smaller contingent, would look to have no chance. When it comes to the public, Jafari definitely has an edge.
While Mr. Chalabi has ranked among the least popular of Iraqi leaders in public opinion polls, Dr. Jafari has ranked the highest. In addition, Dr. Jafari leads an organization known for its deep roots in Iraq, and for the repression it suffered under Saddam Hussein, while Mr. Chalabi is known for leading an organization, the Iraqi National Congress, that was composed mostly of exiles.
With a much smaller group of followers on the slate, and the public against him, the odds may seem to be against Chalabi. After all, he appears to have betrayed people at both ends of the game, and he has a lawsuit hanging over his head. But don't count him out yet.
While aides to Dr. Jafari were predicting victory, people close to Mr. Chalabi said he had gathered enough votes to secure the post for himself. Mr. Chalabi's aides said they planned to call for a vote of the alliance's 140 likely assembly members at a meeting on Wednesday.
At least on paper, Mr. Chalabi appeared to have a chance. Although Dawa and Sciri are the largest parties in the Shiite coalition, known as the United Iraqi Alliance, together they have only about a quarter of the 140 seats captured in the election. The rest of the winning candidates are members of other parties or politically independent.
Chalabi expects to win. And even if he "loses" among his own alliance, he's already put the word out that he's available to play on another team.
The rivalry between Dr. Jafari and Mr. Chalabi appeared to pose significant risks for the Shiite alliance. If Mr. Chalabi fails to persuade the alliance to back him, he could take some of his followers with him and join a coalition of Kurds and secular Shiites, led by the current prime minister, Ayad Allawi, to form a government.
To quote St. Jon of Stewart... whaaaaaaaa?
So Chalabi is planning not only to secure the top spot, but to bring Allawi back into the mix. Allawi's group came in third and most Iraqis thought they were electing a religous Shiite group as thier leaders, but they could end up with the people Bush favored all along.
After everything that's happened, the government could end up right back in the hands of the U.S. appointed leaders. And the religious Shiites could be cut off by an end run from the secular group and the Kurds.
How do you expect that to play?