House and Senate Race Roundup: Still More Stevens, Still More Stupid Songs

AK-Sen: Kos wrote earlier on Rasmussen's new AK-Sen numbers. They are impressive:

Begich (D) 50 (50)
Stevens (R) 37 (41)

Stevens' trial is to be on September 24, less than two months from now.

Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens pleaded not guilty to corruption charges Thursday and received an unusually speedy trial date, which he hopes will clear his name before voters consider re-electing him in November.

Stevens, a Capitol Hill bulldozer accustomed to winning political battles, wrangled control of the normally sluggish judicial process. The Senate's longest-serving Republican faces a tough re-election fight and made it clear Thursday that he does not want his seven-count indictment getting in the way.

"He'd like to clear his name before the election," attorney Brendan Sullivan told U.S. District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan. Sullivan added: "This is not a complex case. It should be one that moves quickly."

Until and unless Stevens does get an acquittal, this race should be considered "Leans Democratic".

MS-Sen: For the first time in a long time, a poll is out with less than desirable results for Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove. From Rasmussen, with June numbers in parentheses:

Wicker (R) 48 (47)
Musgrove (D) 42 (46)

This is not a bad poll. It's within the margin of error of Rasmussen's previous polls in Mississippi. Also, this particular poll seems a bit odd (the same poll shows Mississippi black voters going 100-0 for Obama, which is unlikely).

Cotton Mouth Blog notes another potential problem with the poll:

There is one major flaw with this poll. Being that this is a special election, there will be no reference to party on the ballot. The candidates will NOT be identified as Republican or Democratic in the polling booth. This poll erroneously identifies their parties, which has to be worth a few points to Roger Wicker.

If Rasmussen did use party ID, that is a possible liability, indeed.

Even if this poll is spot-on, a six-point deficit is a decent position for Musgrove, given Wicker's recent ad campaign in the state.

The DSCC is currently advertising on Musgrove's behalf, and hopefully we will conduct his own ad blitz shortly.

NC-Sen: It seems everyone's backing away from Ted Stevens at this point.

John Ensign, NRSC chairman, certainly is:

Uh oh. Here's another sign that top Republicans are backing away from Sen. Ted Stevens: Roll Call reports that NRSC chairman John Ensign refused to give a definite answer when asked if he was endorsing Stevens for re-election.

"I'm not going to make any comment," Ensign said. "There's a process in place and we're going to wait to see how that process plays out."

So is Mike Johanns in Nebraska:

A shelter for domestic violence victims will receive the $6,000 in campaign contributions that Senate candidate Mike Johanns received from Sen. Ted Stevens' political action committee.

Johanns spokeswoman Sarah Pompei said Wednesday that the Republican Johanns decided to give the money to the Friendship Home shortly after the Alaska senator was indicted Tuesday. He's accused of lying about accepting gifts from an oil contractor.

The Nebraska Democratic Party on Tuesday issued a news release calling for Johanns to return contributions from the Northern Lights PAC.

Everybody, it seems, but Elizabeth Dole:

OR-Sen: The DSCC has released a new ad on behalf of Senate candidate Jeff Merkley, hitting Gordon Smith for his role in enabling the Bush economy:

Merkley was also endorsed by the Oregon Independent Party, which can't hurt.

OK-Sen: Young Orange to Blue candidate Andrew Rice liveblogged at Future Majority today, sharing his thoughts on his race and on young voters:

Two years ago, when I ran for State Senate and won, I watched a wave of young progressives sweeping across the nation. I was not just watching history happen, I was part of it with all of you.

This year, however, is proving that 2006 was just a prelude to a national movement, a generational shift that makes our nation’s hope for the future incredibly bright. And once again, I’m honored to be a part of history as it happens. This wouldn't be a pivotal year without your work and your involvement, and I wouldn't be here without the support of young people in Oklahoma.

I’m running for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma in part because I’m inspired by these times. A new group of people who have grown up believing that government can be a force for good in people’s lives are working to make sure that it fulfills that mission. We’re changing our nation from the inside out, from the state house to Washington. And the need for well-qualified and hopeful people to serve in the public sphere has never been greater.

Rice has also made a couple of very big hires in Geri Prado and Phil Singer:

Rice said Geri Prado, former deputy national political and field director for the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, has joined his staff as campaign manager.

"I'm excited to be a part of this organization," Prado said. "Andrew's story, his passion and his hard work in the State Senate are going to make him a great U.S. Senator who focuses on what is best for Oklahoma families."

Prado was Deputy Political Director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the 2006 cycle when Democrats won control of the Senate. Originally from Colorado, she has worked in states like Missouri, New Mexico and Colorado at all levels of campaigns.

Rice also brought on top communications operative Phil Singer as a communications consultant.

Singer was recently the Deputy Communications Director for Hillary Clinton for President and previously worked for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Sen. Charles Schumer as communications director.

These are certainly high-profile additions to the campaign staff, and they speak to the legitimacy and seriousness of Rice's challenge.

House Races

NY-26: OK, the Brand New Man was pretty awful.

But Jack Davis' new radio ad/ridiculous campaign song is even worse. To the tune of "Build Me Up Buttercup", no less.

Check it out. Seriously, it's fantastic. From the Albany Project:

It's called, and I'm not making this up, "Who's Gonna Clean it Up?". It's an act of cultural ghoulism that is every bit as horrific as you probably imagine.

And when you're done, send some love to Orange to Blue candidate Jon Powers.

MI-13: No risk of losing this D+32 seat for the party, but Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is in serious trouble in her primary. She faces State Sen. Martha Scott and Rep. Mary Waters in her race, and has a narrow, narrow lead:

Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) 37
Mary Waters (D) 29
Martha Scott (D) 24

Cheeks Kilpatrick's popularity has no doubt been damaged by the, er, controversial tenure of her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. One has to believe that she'd be dead in the water if she didn't have two challengers splitting the vote.

FL-13: The NRCC is run by idiots. From their own website's news section:

Rep. Vern Buchanan (R), the subject of recent news reports about alleged illicit campaign contributions in the previous cycle, on Tuesday began airing his first television spot on cable and broadcast outlets

Way to pump up your own candidates, folks. That's got to instill confidence.

IN-09: The latest poll on fall blockbuster "Hill-Sodrel IV: The Beginning of the End of the Beginning". Democratic Rep. Baron Hill leads former Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel in their fourth matchup in four cycles. According to SUSA:

Hill (D) 49 (51)
Sodrel (R) 42 (40)
Schansberg (L) 4 (4)

Hill has had the best of it twice so far, Sodrel once. Hill should be favored, albeit slightly, until Sodrel can show a similar polling result.

MN-02, MN-06: DFL candidate Steve Sarvi won the endorsement of Minnesota's Independence Party, which should aid him slightly in his long-shot bid to upset incumbent John Kline. So did fellow Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg, who faces down one of Congress' finest nutters, freshman Rep. Michelle Bachmann:

In a recent news release, the Sarvi campaign said that the Independence Party endorses candidates from different parties when they don't have one from their own, but the candidate must agree with at least 75 percent of the party's key issues and meet several other qualifications.

"I'm proud to have this endorsement," Sarvi said in the release, "and I look forward to having the Independence Party as an integral part of our team working for victory."

The Independence Party has also endorsed DFL candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg for the Sixth Congressional District seat now occupied by Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann.

On the web:

Orange to Blue ActBlue Page