House and Senate Roundup, 7/7

CO-Sen: Mark Udall has shown strong positive movement in polling lately, expanding his slim lead to a substantial one (he leads Republican Bob Schaffer by about nine points currently).

Udall's support from organized labor is considered a potential political touchstone as Republicans try to make up the gap.

While Colorado isn't a state where labor issues tend to move voters, Republicans sense an opportunity, painting the Employee Free Choice Act as the doom of small business and a violation of basic democratic principles. (Unlike current law, EFCA would require businesses to recognize a union if 51 percent of their employees signed a union card, a process known as "card check." Currently, such recognition is voluntary.)

Besides supporting the legislation, Udall has longstanding fundraising ties to unions, and given the recent dust-up over labor issues in the state, Republicans see a potential Achilles' heel in the Boulder County congressman's positive image among voters.

"This would destroy the relationship between management and workers across the state. You would have massive unionization if this becomes law," said Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., who is leading the GOP's national Senate election effort this year.

Udall has been solid on labor issues in general and the EFCA in particular; it seems that the GOP is going to try and capitalize on voter ignorance to twist his support of EFCA to their advantage.

NC-Sen: Check out these (slightly) different ads from Liddy Dole, thoughtfully posted and analyzed by Senate Guru.

Seems that Dole's people edited out a short clip of a military aircraft.

No one knows why, but according to the Guru:

Someone who saw the footage suggested that the military aircraft in the first version of the ad is actually a French Naval aircraft!  Imagine that, Liddy Dole taking credit for work with the military by using footage of a French military aircraft.  If true, this would be quite a bit of egg on Dole's face.

Allez, Les Bleus!

AK-Sen: Don Young isn't the only Alaska Republican drowning in mounting legal bills these days. Via the Huffington Post, we get this fascinating tidbit about Ted Stevens' own legal troubles:

In a personal financial disclosure document for 2007, submitted in May of this year, Stevens claimed an outstanding debt of between $15,000 and $50,000 to the high-powered Washington, D.C. firm of Williams & Connelly, LLP.

On its website, the firm touts its past service to such high-flying defendants as President Bill Clinton and Oliver North (whose ultimate price tag for legal defense during the Iran-Contra scandal has been pegged at $20 million). Given the firm's history for racking up princely sums, it would seem unlikely that the total figure for legal services rendered to Stevens could fit inside the range of numbers indicated in his personal disclosure form. (For his part, Young has spent over $1 million in total on legal fees.)

And while neither Stevens nor Young has thus far been charged with any wrongdoing, it is clear, at minimum, that the hint of scandal has already rocked the political status quo in a state where Republicans normally win in a walk. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee says it recently conducted a poll that showed Barack Obama ahead of John McCain 45-43. Compared to 2004, when John Kerry lost the state by 25 points to President Bush, Democrats think they have a shot this time. (Obama has pledged to campaign in Alaska before November, and purchased television ads there as part of his first national buy.) While the DSCC is not releasing any details of its internal poll, a source there said it showed Mark Begich, the Democratic mayor of Anchorage, with a slight lead over Stevens, as well. If true, such competitiveness may bode well for overall Democratic hopes for a filibuster-proof Senate majority.

I still consider it a small miracle that Stevens is actually vulnerable this year. The best part is that Stevens really has no one to blame but himself; it is his own questionable ethics that made this a race in the first place.

House Races

IL-10: Per a campaign press release, Dan Seals raised $635,000 last quarter, which is a pretty good haul, even for the Chicago media market. Congratulations to all those who helped him out during our final fundraising push (or before! or after!), and to the Seals campaign, of course.

VA-05: Tom Perriello's campaign against Virgil "Rude" Goode is really starting to gain traction, and after another fine fundraising quarter, national media is starting to take notice.

No doubt this is because of Goode's high profile in the wake of Korangate, but it's also a testament to the strength and durability of Perriello's campaign.

Democrats rarely have bothered to put up much of a fight to unseat Virgil H. Goode Jr. , the Republican — and former conservative Democrat — who is in his sixth term representing south-central Virginia’s 5th District. But this year is different. The emergence of Tom Perriello as a vigorous and well-funded Democratic challenger has prompted CQ Politics to change its rating on the race to reflect the possibility of a competitive contest this fall.

The rating, which was Safe Republican, is now Republican Favored. This means Goode still is considered likely to win re-election in the 5th, a sprawling area that stretches from just north of Charlottesville to the state’s border with North Carolina. But it also means that the contest is at least mildly competitive at the moment.

Perriello will run well in the precincts in and near Charlottesville, which includes the liberal academic community surrounding the University of Virginia. But the rest of Virginia’s 5th is very conservative, particularly in Bedford and Campbell counties near Roanoke and Lynchburg and also in Pittsylvania County outside of the independent city of Danville. President Bush took 56 percent of the overall district vote in the 2004 election.

Goode himself seems aware that this race will be the toughest of his political life:

Perriello, who holds a law degree from Yale University, has worked for international nonprofit organizations and founded faith-based groups, is probably the strongest candidate ever to oppose Goode and is certainly the best-funded. Perriello announced Tuesday that he had raised more than $900,000 through the end of June, compared to the just more than $600,000 that 2006 Democratic challenger Al Weed raised over the entirety of his campaign.

The congressman himself has acknowledged that this campaign will be his toughest in a career in which he has won all six of his races with at least 59 percent of the vote. His low water mark came two years ago against Weed, a military veteran and former World Bank employee.

NJ-01: So now that Rob Andrews has theoretically retired from his seat, and his wife has theoretically won the nomination for it, we ought to be set for the fall in this safe Democratic area, right?

Well, not exactly. See, Camille Andrews seems about ready to step aside for a "real" candidate, and has since before she won the primary.

Southern New Jersey party leaders have yet to publicly announce whether Democratic nominee Camille Andrews will remain on the 1st District ballot, leaving the open seat election in flux.

Her "placeholder" candidacy drew some blowback from critics, such as the editorial board of the Philadelphia Inquirer, which expressed its displeasure with what they described as "backroom politics." But Andrews easily won her party’s nomination in the June 3 primary over three lesser known candidates (including one who received no votes.)

No official decision has been made about who will be on the Democratic ballot in November and Andrews’ Republican challenger, minister Dale Glading, is growing impatient with a process he says is robbing voters of their choice.

Rob Andrews says he isn't running for his old seat, but...

But one of the biggest names still raising eyebrows is Robert E. Andrews himself. Before Andrews was soundly defeated by Democratic Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg in the state primary, Democrats speculated that Andrews and his supporters put up Andrews’ wife as a "scam" to get the Congressman back on the House ballot if his Senate bid failed. Andrews has consistently stated he will not run for the House, but local leaders continue to note the nine-term incumbent’s strong local appeal.

Political analyst Reed said an upset in the strongly Democratic district would be "very difficult," but cautioned that if Rob Andrews is chosen to replace his wife on the ballot, "that would just feed into cynicism in New Jersey. This can’t help build confidence in the system or in public officials."

I couldn't agree more.