We're Going To Win, Believe It!

This should in no way be taken as any kind of excuse for you to do anything less than your absolute most this election cycle. That said, if you have don’t have a smile on your face about this election cycle, then you must not be a Democrat! The Dog is here to tell you guys, gals and others that we have all the face cards this Nov. What you don’t believe the Dog? Lets go to the tape (or the electrons, anyway) as they say.

Let’s start with what we all know, but perhaps had not thought through. In April the CBS/New York Times poll found that 81% (let that number sink in for a minute) of the country felt that it was on the wrong track. In 2006 that number was around 68% and the Dog remembers saying (correctly) that people were fed up and wanted something different and that was going to show in the election. We are 13% higher today in terms of unhappiness with the direction of the country. In the same poll, 78% said that they were worse off now than five years ago. It might seem like a clever campaign tactic to say that Sen. McCain is proposing more of the same that we have had from President Bush, but it has the virtue of being true and devastating for him in terms of the electorate.

In issue after issue, the public says that they trust the Democrats over the Repugs, including terrorism. Here is what Rasmussen Reports has as of today:

Issue
Economy:  Trust Dems More 50%, Trust Repugs More36%,Net Dem Advantage +14
Nat Security Trust:Dems More 46%,Trust Repugs More 43%,Net Dem Advantage+3
Iraq War:Trust Dems More 47%, Trust Repugs More 39%,Net Dem Advantage +8
Gov Ethics:Trust Dems More 39%,Trust Repugs More 26%,Net Dem Advantage +13
Health Care:Trust Dems More 52%,Trust Repugs More 35%,Net Dem Advantage+17
Social Security:Trust Dems More 47%, Trust Repugs More 36%,Net Dem Advantage+11
Education:Trust Dems More 50%,Trust Repugs More 34%,Net Dem Advantage +16
Taxes:Trust Dems More 44%,Trust Repugs More 42%,Net Dem Advantage +2
Immigration:Trust Dems More 39%,Trust Repugs More 35%,Net Dem Advantage +4
Abortion: Trust Dems More43%,Trust Repugs More 36%,Net Dem Advantage +7

Now, these numbers are for what is important in the next Congress, but they are a good indicator of how people will look at the party over all. As you can see, Dems have an advantage in every category, with a range of +2 on taxes to a stunning +17 on health care. On the issue that is of most important to those surveyed was the economy, a category where the Dems lead in trust by a huge +14! In fact that is one of three categories that we have a trust more of 50% or more.

So it seems clear on the issues that we, Sen. Obama and our Congressional Dems are in good shape. The public trusts us more on these issues and we are not the incumbent party (okay for all those who suffer under the curse of pedantic-ism we are in the House and Senate, but it is clear the public does not really view us that way). This leads to the 47% Dem to 34% Repug generic ballot numbers. To have a +13 in July is a very good thing indeed.

Now let’s look at some of the other features that are going to make this a Dem sweep, starting with the presidency. One of the things that has allowed the Repugs to run rough shod over us for the last few presidential cycles has been their ability to raise huge amounts of money. It is sad, but true that money often trumps policy in our elections. The good news is that this is no longer the case. Sen. Obama raised over a quarter of a billion (yeah with a B) during his primary run. That is written like this $250,000,000.00! For those that don’t remember, that is more than half of all the money raised for the entire cycle of 2004, including the DNC and RNC fund raising. His small donor list is over a million people and while most of those people are going to be feeling the squeeze this summer and fall, the potential there is enormous!

In terms of campaign organization, can there be any doubt that Sen. Obama is way ahead. With over 7,000 organizing fellows out there and the existing ground operations left over from our historic 50 state primary fight the Obama machine is ready and willing to make a battle ground of every state, even ones where we are likely to lose, if for no other reason than not ceding any state to the Repugs. Compare that to Sen. McCain’s campaign where we have seen a semi-purge of lobbyists (but not enough to keep it from being an issue, if we want it to be) and the shake up in the top of the day to day operations. It is clear that the Senior (very, very senior) Senator from AZ is not the most organized or decisive campaigner. This is another very real problem for him, as part of the reason that Sen. Obama is our nominee is a truly masterful campaign.

One of the things that propelled an unfit Governor from Texas into the White House was an everyman appeal. Even though he was the son of a president, the grandson of a Senator, even though he went to Harvard and Yale, even though he had owned baseball teams he was perceived (or sold) as a everyman. We have a choice of a son of a single mother of mixed ethnic backgrounds, someone who has lived on food stamps, who had to borrow to pay for college, and a son and grandson of US Admirals, a man that is married to one of the wealthiest people in the country. Senator McCain may say my friends at every opportunity, but it just points out that we are not his friends, he does not even know us or what a gallon of milk costs.  On the real everyday fella front (which the Dog thinks is the worst way to choose a president) we have him beat going away.

There is a lot of debate as to why Sen. Clinton lost her bid to be our nominee. To the Dog the biggest one is her Iraq war vote. The Dog has defended this vote as he understands how she got there, but it does not matter. With over 70% of the country still convinced that the war was a mistake and about the same number wanting to end it now (even while saying that the surge worked) it is clear that this is going to be final nail in Sen. McCain’s electoral coffin. He is in favor of staying there, basically forever, and this is completely on the wrong side of the country. This is going to be even a bigger problem if the Iraqi’s stick to their new demand for a time table for withdrawal in a new Status of Forces Agreement. This will expose the Repugs as never truly believing that Iraq has been a sovereign state for the last two years. It will cut all of their arguments out from under them and give the public even more reason to want us to leave, as those that argue most for staying are often worried about what will happen there if we leave. If the Iraqi’s are less worried than we are, what is left to argue over?

If you are a fan of one last, over the top, piece of data, the Dog has that for you too. It is very simple and it ties all of this back together. The president currently enjoys one of the lowest approval ratings every. That includes Nixon before his resignation and Carter in the midst of the Iranian hostage crisis. Sen. McCain is not only a member of his party but has spent the last four years supporting and voting with this odious man. There is not enough time or money in the world for him to distance himself from President Bush, even if he were not following the same policies. There is long tradition of punishing the incumbent party when things are going badly and with a wrong track number of 81%, the people in this country think things are going very badly indeed.

When it is all laid out like this there is very little doubt that we will be the victorious party in November. We have the money, the trust of the public and the issues on our side. We have a desire for change and an opponent that is offering more of the same. We have a truly talented candidate who people would pay to hear read the phone book, compared to a man that is, at the very best, stilted and boring in his speech. We have the built in image of an older man with tiered ideas and a young man with a new way of looking at things and speaking about them.

Sure, there will be Traditional Media story lines that go against us, that is to be expected. They have to make money and boring stories of how the Dems are going to crush the Repugs don’t sell ads. There will also be lots and lots of racist and other slime chugged out by the RNC, Karl Rove and 527 groups that want things to stay the same way. They will not go down without a fight. However when we stack that up compared to our advantages, it is clear that we have all the Aces.

Now, that does not give us an excuse for apathy. We are likely to take six Senate seats and twenty House seats, as well as the White House, but if we bust our asses, if we stay focused on the goal of changing the country, we could have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate and a 100 seat majority in the House. With those kind of numbers we could do more than just fix the problems of 8 years of misrule, we could genuinely change the way things are done in this country!

So, my fellow Kossacks put on a happy face and get to work. This is our time, and we should not let the disappointments of the past make us think otherwise. To steal a phrase, Yes. WE. Can!!!