GA-Sen: Martin (D) nipping at Chambliss' heels

Last week, the DSCC released a poll showing Democratic Senate candidate Jim Martin, riding the wave of a convincing primary runoff victory, trailing Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss by only six points.

The smallest margin recorded in any poll, prior to the DSCC's stunner, had been the 11-point Chambliss lead which Rasmussen demonstrated in July.

Rasmussen's latest, however, confirms the DSCC poll, and suggests that Georgia's Senate race is highly competitive right now.

Rasmussen. 8/14. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (7/17 results)

Chambliss (R) 48 (51)
Martin (D) 43 (40)

With leaners included, Chambliss leads 50% to 44%.

As this is independent confirmation of the DSCC's previous poll, it can probably be taken more or less at face value. It reflects a pretty healthy primary bump for Martin, one which may well fade a little as Chambliss uses his formidable war chest to go on the air.

But if Martin - the beneficiary of healthy name recognition from his 2006 bid for lieutenant governor - can stay relatively competitive financially, and avoid being drowned on the airwaves, he has an outside shot at winning this race. Martin's success will also depend in part on Democratic efforts to register hundreds of thousands of new voters in Georgia. The Obama campaign has made this a priority, and in a close race, it could prove to be a boon to Martin's candidacy.

We're quite fortunate to have a candidate like Jim Martin in the race. He's essentially turned a no-hope race into a serious challenge, and is a candidate progressives can be proud of. Georgia's Senate race was barely on the radar just a few months ago, but it has become one of the top sleeper races this cycle.

With this poll added to the pile, Pollster's average now indicates an eight-point race, with Chambliss averaging 50% to Martin's 42.3%

Georgia's Senate race can now be considered "Likely Republican". Chambliss has a big money advantage (though Martin's own fundraising has been fairly good in a fairly short time, and the DSCC has a good bit of money themselves). Given Chambliss' money, Georgia's red tilt, and Chambliss' lead, he has to be favored.

But Chambliss has a legitimately tough race on his hands, and that should warm the hearts of Democrats across the nation.

On the web:
Jim Martin for U.S. Senate