Senate picture

Yesterday I ranked Senate races per Rasmussen polls, based on the latest Louisiana Ras poll. Today, let me do a better version of that post, this time using the Pollster.com polling composites (a more accurate way to gauge the state of these races).

I've ranked them in order of likelihood of switching, including all races within 20 points:

State Incumbent   Margin over challenger

 NM    Open (R)       -26.3
 VA    Open (R)       -25.3
 AK    Stevens (R)    -18.2
 NH    Sununu (R)     -10.6  
 CO    Open (R)        -6.4
 MS    Wicker (R)      +1.5
 MN    Coleman (R)     +6.8
 OR    Smith (R)       +7.6
 GA    Chambliss (R)   +7.7
 NC    Dole (R)        +8.7  
 KY    McConnell (R)  +12.1
 ID    Open (R)       +12.5
 ME    Collins (R)    +12.9
 NJ    Lautenberg (D) +12.9
 TX    Cornyn (R)     +13.8
 LA    Landrieu (D)   +15.2
 OK    Inhoffe (R)    +16.3
 IA    Harkin (D)     +17.2
 KS    Roberts (R)    +19.6

So there are 14 Republican-held seats that are more endangered than Louisiana. New Jersey, always such a tease, is actually close than Louisiana, though Republicans seemed to have wised up to the Garden State's shenanigans. Too bad. The more money they sunk into NJ, the less money they'd have to try and hold those other 14. And there are signs that Oklahoma may be more competitive.

Bottom line? NM, VA, AK, and NH look like solid pickups. Colorado is shoring up, likely (D) in my book. I think we pull off Mississippi, which gets us to six.

If the elections were today, I think that's where things would settle. Can we get four more from that list in the next 2 1/2 months to get to a Lieberman-proof 60? I'm increasingly optimistic. It's not just the favorable political climate, but also this:

DSCC: $43 million
NRSC: $25.4 million

That's the Senate party committees cash on hand at the end of July. Democrats quite simply have the cash to create mass havoc behind enemy lines. Republicans barely have enough to keep the lights on at party HQ, much less actually play defense. While Republicans spent $2.8 million in July, Democrats have been barraging Republicans with over $8.5 million in ads and other spending.

The DSCC artillery assault has already begun, and Republicans have half the cash the Dems have to respond.