The big picture and the big concern from Chuck Schumer

DSCC chair Chuck Schumer came by the Big Tent today, and among other things, he gave an update on competitive Senate races and overall strategy for November.

He painted a highly optimistic picture of Democratic Senate prospects. On the defense side, Louisiana's Mary Landrieu, long considered the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, is now holding a double-digit lead. Of 23 Republican seats, he pointed to Colorado, New Hampshire, Alaska, Virginia, and New Mexico as races in which Democrats are and have been significantly ahead. He said that Kay Hagen in North Carolina, Al Franken in Minnesota, and Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi are about even with their opponents, while Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky, and Tom Allen in Maine are close enough that the races could be winnable. "Those are the 11 -- 5 ahead, 3 even, 3 close."

He also pointed to Andrew Rice's strong campaign in Oklahoma, and Jim Martin's recent polling in Georgia as places for optimism.

The major concern Schumer identified with the overall Senate picture is independent expenditures by 527s and other groups. Right-wing forces such as the Chamber of Commerce and anti-Employee Free Choice Act groups have been pouring millions of dollars into defeating Democratic Senate candidates. Schumer suggested a reason for this targeting:

I think what the right wing has decided is 527s aren't going to make that big a difference in the presidential, they don't have the House, they're focusing on us. We had to counter-respond by putting a million dollars in Colorado in August because we didn't want Mark Udall to be out there 5 to 1 against. It worked, but that's a million dollars we don't have to put somewhere else in October.

He stressed the importance of responding to such attacks within 24 hours -- not just for Senate candidates but for the Obama campaign.