New[ly Published] Latino Poll: In The Southwest, Obama Leads By 45

Bad news for McCain in this Democracy Corps poll (July 11 – August 3, 2008).

A special Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of Hispanic voters in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada shows that Barack Obama holds a commanding lead among Latinos in the southwest. The Democratic nominee leads John McCain by 45 points and has a chance to perform better among Hispanic voters than any Democratic presidential candidate in recent history.

and

In the four southwestern states, he is running an average 10 points ahead of John Kerry’s share of the vote four years ago, while McCain receives only a bare majority of Bush’s 2004 Latino vote.

And the bottom line:

As these results suggest, Obama has clearly been able to establish a connection with Hispanic voters, and the concern among some that Hispanics would not vote for a black presidential candidate has largely shown to be unfounded.

Meanwhile, as most of you know, Gallup has Obama +8 and Rasmussen has Obama +4, and Scott Rasmussen has some thoughts:

Obama’s four-point lead reported on Friday morning is based on polling data collected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights. Virtually all of the interviews were completed before Obama’s acceptance speech and it is impossible to tell what will happen next. Normally, the bounce would continue for a few days. But, this year, with McCain’s VP announcement and the Republican convention happening so quickly, we are in uncharted territory.

Still, here are some different ways of looking at Obama’s bounce:

· Obama’s pre-convention lead of three points has increased by a point. That’s something John Kerry failed to accomplish. His polling numbers peaked just before the convention in 2004.

· But, Obama is still below his biggest lead of the year—six points—which he achieved with the bounce from his Berlin speech and surrounding hoopla.

· Obama has gained three percentage points compared to a week ago.

· Obama is now supported by 83% of Democrats, up from 79% a week ago.

· Sixty-six percent (66%) of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama, up from 58% a week ago.

· Thirty-five percent (35%) of all voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama, up from 32% a week ago.

Also there were 38 million viewers for Obama's speech:  

Nielsen Media Research said more people watched Obama speak than watched the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, the final "American Idol" or the Academy Awards this year. Obama talked before a live audience of 80,000 people in Denver.

His TV audience nearly doubled the amount of people who watched John Kerry accept the Democratic nomination to run against President Bush four years ago. Kerry's speech was seen by just over 20 million people.

 The images will last.