I hust wanted to throw my predictions for the primary out there, so they're on the record :)
First, Dean wins Iowa, Gephardt second, Edwards/Kerry third/fourth.
Second, Dean wins NH, Kerry second, faaaar behind, Clark, right behind Kerry, Edwards fourth. Meaning: Kerry and Gephardt are out, Lieberman in great trouble.
Third, Seven "southern" primaries, John Edwards wins South Carolina and maybe Delaware, Clark wins Arizona, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Missouri and North Dakota will be in Dean's coloumn and ... (scratches head). .... Lieberman is out.
After that, we will basically be down to a fist-fight between Clark and Edwards for the not-Dean place in the final dust-up with Dean on super-Tuesday, when liberal states like New York and California will rally for Dean, and Florida for Clark (or whomever not-Dean is). Did that make sense?
The "who will be the not-Dean-candidate"-primary, is the most interesting, at this moment. And here's my side-note observation: after Gore's (and Bradley's, Harkin's) blows against the not-Dean "liberals", Gephardt and Kerry, and the supposedly "Gore-staffer" candidate, Clark, and the former Gore running-mate, Lieberman, there is one man who really stands to gain a lot from Gore's endorsement: John Edwards. Not that I see that happening or anything, so my math must be wrong somehow.
Conclusion: Dean will most likely win the nomination (and be defeated in the general).
(This is a slightly edited version of a previous post in my My livejournal, January 7th.)