WY-AL, Pres Polling: Race Tightens for Trauner

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (5/20-21)

Lummis (R) 42 (41)
Trauner (D) 42 (44)

Hoo doggie, this is shaping up to be a nail biter. All the months of really ugly primary campaigning for Lummis didn't do much for her numbers. In hostile territory, and it's hard to think of a seat more hostile than the one that launched Dick Cheney's "public service" career, Gary is holding his own.

There's a huge number of undecideds in this race, most of them Republican (see the crosstabs below the fold). That wariness could come from the ugly Republican primary. The dirty tricks have bled over, with Lummis's press secretary (a Barbara Cubin alum) stupid stunt of calling into a Trauner press conference, posing as one of his supporters, trying to derail the press conference. She was forced to resign, but it's the kind of petty, nasty stunt that Cubin liked to pull, something Wyoming voters are unlikely to want to see more of that.

One factor in Gary's favor in this state: Wyoming's voters are notorious ticket-splitters. They have a Democratic governor, after all, and have had for 24 of the last 32 years. They vote for Democrats there, and Gary is the likeliest of recipients. My recommendation for who Gary needs to target in the state: Seniors. Even with the current economic crisis, Lummis wants to privatize Social Security.

On the Presidential front, well, no one had particularly high expectations for Wyoming. Obama is outperforming Kerry, who lost 69-29.

McCain (R) 57 (53)
Obama (D) 36 (40)

Full crosstabs below the fold.

On the Web:
Gary Trauner for Congress
Orange to Blue

WYOMING POLL RESULTS – SEPTEMBER 2008

The Research 2000 Wyoming Poll was conducted from September 22 through September 24, 2008. A total of 500 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  242 (48%)
Women                258 (52%)

Democrats            116 (24%)
Republicans          240 (48%)
Independents/Other   144 (28%)

18-29                 85 (18%)
30-44                153 (30%)
45-59                167 (33%)
60+                   95 (19%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Trauner? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         40%         22%         14%         11%

MEN                 12%         38%         25%         16%          9%
WOMEN               14%         42%         19%         12%         13%

DEMOCRATS           27%         58%          7%          5%          3%
REPUBLICANS          6%         29%         35%         21%          9%
INDEPENDENTS        14%         44%         13%         10%         19%

18-29               16%         42%         19%         11%         12%
30-44               13%         40%         23%         15%          9%
45-59               12%         40%         24%         16%          8%
60+                 12%         38%         22%         14%         14%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Lummis? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 14%         40%         20%         12%         14%

MEN                 16%         42%         18%         11%         13%
WOMEN               12%         38%         22%         13%         15%

DEMOCRATS            6%         24%         40%         22%          8%
REPUBLICANS         20%         51%          7%          6%         16%
INDEPENDENTS        12%         36%         24%         13%         15%

18-29               12%         33%         22%         14%         19%
30-44               13%         42%         21%         11%         13%
45-59               16%         43%         19%         12%         10%
60+                 15%         42%         19%         11%         13%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Gary Trauner the Democrat or Cynthia Lummis the Republican?

                   TRAUNER     LUMMIS      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 42%         42%         16%

MEN                 39%         46%         15%
WOMEN               45%         38%         17%

DEMOCRATS           85%         12%          3%
REPUBLICANS         13%         62%         25%
INDEPENDENTS        56%         33%         11%

18-29               45%         40%         15%
30-44               42%         41%         17%
45-59               41%         44%         15%
60+                 41%         43%         16%

QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Nick Carter the Democrat or John Barasso the Republican?

                   BARASSO     CARTER      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 58%         34%          8%

MEN                 61%         32%          7%
WOMEN               55%         36%          9%

DEMOCRATS            8%         82%         10%
REPUBLICANS         85%          7%          8%
OTHER               55%         39%          6%

18-29               53%         37%         10%
30-44               61%         32%          7%
45-59               59%         32%          9%
60+                 58%         34%          8%

QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Chris Rothfuss the Democrat or Mike Enzi the Republican?

                   ENZI        ROTHFUSS    UNDECIDED  

ALL                 59%         35%          6%

MEN                 61%         34%          5%
WOMEN               57%         36%          7%

DEMOCRATS           10%         83%          7%
REPUBLICANS         86%          8%          6%
OTHER               55%         39%          6%

18-29               55%         38%          7%
30-44               62%         33%          5%
45-59               60%         34%          6%
60+                 59%         35%          6%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 57%         36%          4%          3%

MEN                 61%         32%          5%          2%
WOMEN               53%         40%          3%          4%

DEMOCRATS            9%         85%          3%          3%
REPUBLICANS         84%          9%          3%          4%
OTHER               53%         40%          6%          1%

18-29               54%         39%          3%          4%
30-44               59%         35%          5%          1%
45-59               58%         35%          5%          2%
60+                 57%         36%          3%          4%