SAFE DEMOCRATIC
Senate
Arkansas (Pryor, uncontested), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson).
Virginia (OPEN-R): Pollster's average gives Democrat Mark Warner, the extremely popular former state governor, a 26-point polling edge over Republican Jim Gilmore, 58% to 32%. That about says it.
Gilmore's candidacy for the Senate may have been even more pathetic than his abortive presidential campaign, if only because this time he facs a serious, talented, and well-liked opponent, whereas in the presidential primary he faced one of the most incompetent collections of stumble bums ever assembled on a political stage.
Governor
Montana (Schweitzer), New Hampshire (Lynch), West Virginia (Manchin). Nothing to see here, folks.
Delaware (OPEN-D): Democratic State Treasurer Jack Markell has a 35-point polling edge in his bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Ruth Ann Minner. Hard to see how that gap can close in just over five.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Senate
New Mexico (OPEN-R): There was some cause for concern here for a time, as a few Rasmussen polls showed Republican Steve Pearce within single digits of Democrat Tom Udall. This was largely due to the intervention of several third-party organizations on behalf of Steve Pearce; while Udall hasn't been a target to the same degree his cousin Mark has in Colorado, New Mexico has seen a disproportionate amount of IEs from Republican-leaning groups this cycle.
Recent polls, however, have shown Udall with the healthy 15-20 point lead he has enjoyed most of the cycle. The race will undoubtedly tighten by election day, but Udall's reputation - he was the state's popular attorney general before being elected to the U.S. House - as well as a shortage of resources from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (which has pulled out of New Mexico), put Udall solidly in the drivers' seat.
Udall isn't just up in the polls, he has never once trailed in any poll conducted this cycle, nor has he even polled below 50% since he entered the race. That's the mark of a winner.
New Jersey (Lautenberg-D incumbent): Not a lot has changed since last month. Democratic incumbent Frank Lautenberg is vulnerable in theory, but pretty safe in reality. He's polling under 50% currently, but that's hardly a new thing for New Jersey, where incumbents frequently poll badly (they generally don't especially like politicians in Jersey).
His lead is under 10 points per Pollster's average - they have him leading Republican Dick Zimmer, 48% to 39% - but to be honest, Zimmer is hardly a world-beater of a candidate, and was essentially a C-list recruit for the NRSC. It's possible Lautenberg will lose, but not very likely, especially in a Democratic-leaning state. Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Jersey since 1972, and they've fielded much better candidates than Zimmer (Pete Dawkins, Millicent Fenwick, Christie Whitman, and Tom Kean Jr. being among them). This race isn't locked away, or gaffe-proof, but Lautenberg should be pretty confident.
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
Senate
Louisiana (Landrieu-D incumbent): Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu has been considered the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent this cycle. She still is, but a series of masterful ads from her campaign (nailing Democrat-turned-Republican opportunist and State Treasurer John Kennedy) have given Landrieu a wide lead, 55% to 40% according to Pollster's average (which basically consists of the last two Rasmussen polls).
Landrieu isn't out of the woods, not least because this is Louisiana, a state which ought to give McCain a 10-15 point victory. Also, Rasmussen is the only pollster currently giving her the substantial lead Pollster indicates. So we are keeping the race as "Leans Democratic", but we feel pretty confident about Landrieu's chances.
Colorado (OPEN-R): Colorado moves in just ahead of New Hampshire and Alaska this month. The reason for this has more to do with tightening polls in those two states than any movement in Colorado.
Colorado has been ground zero for third-party spending in this race. With a relatively weak Republican candidate (Bob Schaffer) facing a relatively strong Democrat (Mark Udall), the Club for Growth, Chamber of Commerce, and all their right-wing pals have dumped millions of dollars into this race. Between the Schaffer campaign and third parties, the toll for Colorado is over $9 million.
The DSCC has countered with several ad buys of their own, and as a result, the race is more or less where it's always been...Udall leads in single digits, mid-to-high single digits. Pollster's average gives the Democrat an edge of roughly six points, which seems about right.
This race is in roughly the same boat as New Hampshire. It's ranked ever so slightly higher here for two reasons; first, it is an open-seat race, and second, Obama has been polling particularly well of late in Colorado.
New Hampshire (Sununu-R incumbent): Polls appear to be tightening in New Hampshire, though New Hampshire polling can be notoriously screwy.
Rasmussen depicted the first Sununu lead all cycle earlier this month, showing him up 52-45. That was also the first time Sununu had polled over 45% all year. The poll was clearly an outlier, but several other polls lately have shown the race drawing to within a few points.
On the other hand, the Concord Monitor's latest shows a nine-point lead for Shaheen, 50% to 41%.
Third-party organizations have been targeting New Hampshire heavily, correctly identifying Sununu as the most-endangered Republican incumbent, and that is no doubt part of the reason for the tightening poll numbers. Still, Shaheen has been hanging tough, and still leads in Pollster's average by five points, 48% to 43%.
This isn't a done deal by any stretch, but Shaheen is favored. It's possible that the national tide in New Hampshire could determine the outcome of this race. If Obama takes New Hampshire, it's likely Shaheen will be the state's next Senator. If McCain takes the Granite State, he may bring Sununu with him.
Alaska (Stevens-R incumbent): The polling in this race has fallen back to earth after Orange to Blue Democrat Mark Begich enjoyed a tremendous initial bounce in the wake of Ted Stevens' retirement.
Where once Begich consistently led by double digits, his lead is now down to an average of just over two points, 48% to 46%.
Begich's favorables are high, and Stevens is still under indictment, though he's enduringly popular himself. For those reasons, plus a consistent (if slim) Begich lead, he merits a slight edge, but the race is perilously close to tossup status.
Governor
Missouri: This race could easily be ranked "Likely D", s polls give Democrat Jay Nixon a twelve-point edge over Republican Kenny Hulshof. It's ranked as "Lean" because races are almost invariably close in Missouri.
Claire McCaskill won her 2006 Senate race by three points, after losing the Governorship in 2004 by the same margin to Matt Blunt. In 2002, Jim Talent won his Senate seat by just one point over Jean Carnahan, whose late husband Mel had posthumously won the seat in 2000 by less than three points. That same year, Democrat Bob Holden won the governorship over Talent, by just one point.
Given that electoral history, it's dangerous to get overconfident in Nixon's chances. He should win, but probably not by 12 points.
TOSSUP
Senate
North Carolina (Dole-R incumbent): This is quite possibly the most prominent Senate matchup in the nation, as it pits a high-profile (if ineffective) Senator, Elizabeth Dole, against an impressively strong Democratic challenger (Kay Hagan) in a race where the polling has been essentially deadlocked. All this, in a state considered a swing state this cycle.
Hagan actually merits a two-point advantage in Pollster's average right now, 44% to 42%. She has run an impeccable campaign, sticking to message with ruthless precision, and the DSCC's ads in North Carolina have been brutally effective.
This race is a tossup, but the momentum is with Hagan, and Liddy Dole is in very serious trouble.
Oregon (Smith-R incumbent): Gordon Smith joins Elizabeth Dole in the "seriously endangered" category this month, as recent polls have shown the two-term incumbent plummeting. For the first time all cycle, Democrat Jeff Merkley merits an edge (albeit the slightest of edges) in Pollster's average, 43% to 41%.
The recent polling trend has favored Merkley strongly, and Oregon is very likely to go solidly Democratic in the presidential election.
For the first time all cycle, Merkley has as good odds as not to beat Gordon Smith.
Governor
North Carolina (OPEN-D): Uh, there's no telling what might happen here a month from now. The gubernatorial race is a battle of the titans between Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) and Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue (D).
McCrory leads in the Pollster average by one point, 42.4% to 41.4%. With five weeks to go in the election, it's anyone's game.
With the state's 15 electoral votes up in the air, perhaps the hottest U.S. Senate race in the country and one of the hottest gubernatorial races, at least one competitive House race (in the Eighth District) and perhaps another (the Tenth District), North Carolina is one of the most fascinating states to watch over the next month.
Washington (Gregoire-D incumbent): The 2004 gubernatorial election here, pitting Attorney General Christine Gregoire against State Senator Dino Rossi, was decided after three recounts. Gregoire, the Democrat, won by 129 votes in the final recount, and an enraged Rossi filed to run again in 2008.
Polling suggests that the state may be headed for another photo finish: Pollster indicates that after trailing all cycle, Rossi now leads by less than a point, 48.4% to 47.6%.
Rossi has flooded the state with TV advertising over the last month, and this has likely propelled him into his negligible lead. The momentum is with him, but he still faces the challenge of winning election in a Democratic-leaning state. Gregoire's saving grace may come from the national tide; Obama is expected to win Washington handily, and his margin may bring Gregoire with him.
LEANS REPUBLICAN
Senate
Minnesota (Coleman-R incumbent): Norm Coleman has led Orange to Blue Democrat Al Franken all cycle, and often by a significant margin. However, the race has tightened up significantly in recent weeks, with several polls showing him within a few points of the GOP incumbent.
This has been one of the nastiest races in the cycle, at least from the GOP side, with Coleman running some of the worst negative ads we've seen this year. However, recent trends seem to indicate that that strategy isn't working particularly well, with Coleman's lead shrinking and his polling well below 50%.
Coleman would win if the election were held today, but Franken is gaining on him rapidly.
Mississippi (Wicker-R incumbent): The latest polls in this race have given Republican interim Senator Roger Wicker a consistent 5-6 point lead. Democratic challenger Ronnie Musgrove has been hanging tough, with a terrific bio ad airing, and the DSCC is quite actively involved in this race as well.
It's unclear as of now how the financial crisis will affect the race - Musgrove has been running as a champion of the middle class, and he might derive some benefit from Wicker's being a creature of Washington (he has been there since 1995, and is partly responsible for all the worst excesses of the Gingrich/Bush years.
Musgrove's certainly in the hunt. He may well be the beneficiary of abnormally high black turnout for Obama; in a state with an exceptionally high black population, that could carry Musgrove over the top. On the other hand, it's a Republican state, and one has to figure that undecideds will break Republican.
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Senate
Kentucky (McConnell-R incumbent): This one may move up fast. The last two polls on this race, both conducted post-financial-meltdown, have Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell barely edging Democrat Bruce Lunsford. SurveyUSA has a three-point race, and Mason-Dixon has just a one-point edge for McConnell.
Mason-Dixon is one of the best pollsters in the business, and SUSA is no slouch. The polling average indicates that Lunsford has generally trailed 7-12 points, but obviously if the new polls indicate a trend, this race could close rapidly in the next month. McConnell is the most prominent and powerful Republican in Congress, so he should be taking a considerable (and well-deserved) amount of heat for the economic crisis.
Call this race Likely Republican, especially given McConnell's war chest and ruthlessness as a campaigner. But we'll be watching closely to see what happens here over the next few weeks.
Georgia (Chambliss-R incumbent): It's very difficult to tell where this race stands, judging by recent polling. There are two branches of polling here:
- Rasmussen and the DSCC internals, which have shown a lead of 5-7 points for Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss, and
- SurveyUSA, Chambliss' internals, and the Republican-leaning Strategic Vision, which show Chambliss with a consistent double-digit lead.
Pick your poison...Rasmussen and the Democrats versus SUSA and the Republicans. Research 2000 will be polling this race for Daily Kos over the next few weeks, as well.
Democratic candidate Jim Martin has focused his campaign on the middle class, and as such, the current financial crisis could take a serious toll on GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss, a loyal Bush lieutenant.
Depending on which group of pollsters is on the mark, this race could be the biggest sleeper in the country. Or Chambliss could win big. This race really only came onto the national radar in August (prior to that, only Rasmussen had really been polling it), so a lot of folks are still pretty much flying blind.
Maine (Collins-R incumbent): Democrat Tom Allen's support has leveled off in the low forties, after he spent several months making slow and steady gains. If there's a real Democratic landslide on November 4, it's conceivable Allen could pull off a stunning upset, but don't hold your breath. Incumbent Susan Collins is just too popular, and Allen hasn't been able to successfully separate her from her perceived "moderate" image.
Governor
Indiana: Jill Long Thompson has run a mediocre-at-best campaign against GOP incumbent Mitch Daniels. Polling has Daniels well ahead; only one recent poll (Selzer, for the Indianapolis Star) indicates a close race. That is the only reason we still consider the race even "Likely Republican"; it will take a near-miracle for Long Thompson to pull this one out.
RACES TO WATCH
Oklahoma (Inhofe-R incumbent): With the exception of a DSCC poll from August, recent polling results have been pretty brutal. Orange to Blue candidate Andrew Rice has run a fine campaign, but incumbent Jim Inhofe has just proven nearly impossible to take down. Pollster's average gives him a 19-point lead over Rice.
We'll see where the race goes, and if the DSCC pollsters know something the others don't, it's still possible Rice could make this one competitive. But given Oklahoma's ruby-red tilt, it's unlikely.
Fortunately, if Rice does lose, the 34-year-old would appear to have a particularly bright future in the Oklahoma Democratic Party.
Nebraska (OPEN-R): Orange to Blue Democrat Scott Kleeb has a big institutional advantage in that he is remarkably popular for a Democrat in the western part of the state - usually forbidden territory for Democrats. It's conceivably possible that the Democrat could pull off a Chuck Hagel-esque upset on election day, if he can amass the resources to advertise heavily in Omaha, usually fertile territory for Democrats but, in this cycle, a stronghold for Republican Mike Johanns. State polling results have shown a challenging racefor the Democrat.
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Senate
Alabama (Sessions), Kansas (Roberts), Mississippi-A (Cochran), South Carolina (Graham), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), Wyoming A,B (Enzi, Barrasso).
Governor
North Dakota (Hoeven), Utah (Huntsman), Douglas (Vermont)
