The Expectations Game on Palin

The expectations game is underway on Palin and her speech. In a sense, it's already been underway for some time, starting with the sub-rosa circulation of the Republican meme in which the brassy, gun-totin' Hockey Mom^TM is transformed into the delicate flower that Joe Biden has to "be careful" with.

Tonight's game centers on lowering expectations for the big speech, and runs roughly around these points:

• "Gosh, she's nice and all, but she's new. She's hasn't gone all DC, so don't expect her to..."
• "See? She's not so bad! She didn't mention anything about her separatist or militia friends even once!"

But the reality is that you should expect not just a polished presentation from Palin tonight, but a stellar performance. Remember, this is someone who started out not only as a pageant contestant, but as an on-air personality for the local television station.

But it's more than just media training. You also need to keep in mind that Palin is a creation of GOPAC, the Republican "farm team" organization that grew to prominence under now-disgraced putative presidential candidate Newt Gingrich.

It was under Gingrich's direction that the organization became a one-stop shop for campaigns-in-a-can, where aspiring Republicans who coveted the trappings of power but just didn't know what to say could turn for coaching, advice, and even scripted building blocks for entire speeches. It's where your local earnest but otherwise-clueless Republican businessman-type would turn in order to learn to "speak like Newt."

And while training candidates to win was the outward goal, the real payoffs came once they were in office:

The Republicans are able to enforce discipline in their Conference with amazing efficiency, largely because the Membership of their Conference differs in kind from the Membership of our Caucus, not because of any difference in their rules. They're more susceptible to discipline because they arrived in DC beholden to that brand of discipline, and more importantly, to the leaders -- personally -- who impose it.

In 1992, 41 of the 48 GOP freshmen were trained by GOPAC -- in many cases, having their campaigns virtually scripted from beginning to end. In the 1994 "Revolution," 73 GOP freshmen were elected, 72 of whom were signatories to the "Contract With America." The numbers of Republican Members of the House who owe their careers and elections to GOPAC continues to grow, albeit at a slightly slower pace now that GOPAC is no longer involving itself in federal races, though it continues to develop its state and local level "farm team."

What the activity of the early 90s produced was a solid core of the Republican Conference who were literally swept into office on the premise that trusting the instincts of the GOP leadership was the key to success.

Now GOPAC's got one of its own on the ticket, and you should expect her to deliver the goods every bit as much as they do. The speech-in-a-can can be expected to be a sterling product, smoothly and sympathetically delivered. Absent an unfortunate teleprompter accident, that is.

GOPAC robots are exactly what's led us to disaster for the past 14 years now. Even out of the majority, their cohesion as a unit (they have no other choice but to cohere, since they're lost as individuals) makes them dangerous, as we saw in their willingness to risk sinking even the supposedly necessary FISA revisions in holding out for telecom immunity.

Though GOPAC is the Sinn Fein to DeLay/Cheney's IRA, it's the ability to put this happy-faced veneer on Republican graft, legbreaking and looting that's behind the continuing impression that this street gang in suits is a legitimate political party. And it's what's preventing Washington from ever realizing the kind of reform Palin will strain every muscle telling you she's all about.

Watch it in action tonight.