Next Year's Model: Oklahoma through South Dakota

In the fifth installment of our ongoing series analyzing 2009 and 2010 elections, we look at Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina and South Dakota.

Oklahoma

First, the bad news. Here's Oklahoma's recent trend at the Presidential level:

1992. Bush (R) 43%, Clinton (D) 34%, Perot (I) 23%

1996. Dole (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 40%, Perot (I) 11%

That's the high-water mark, unfortunately, and not by a little.

2000. Bush (R) 60%, Gore (D) 38%

2004. Bush (R) 66%, Kerry (D) 34%

2008. McCain (R) 66%, Obama (D) 34%

Since David Boren retired, the best we've been able to do in the state has been two single-digit losses by Bill Clinton, coupled with an 11-point loss by Brad Carson in the 2004 Senate race...

...and the almost flukish election of Brad Henry as Governor in a three-way race in 2002 (which was followed, however, by Henry winning every county in the state in his reelection bid in 2006).

So given the strong recent Republican trend in the state - leading to 30-point blowouts at the presidential level - what hope is there for winning something here in 2010?

Some hope, actually, especially for the Governor's race.

Term-limited Democrat Brad Henry has been an exceptionally popular Governor, and he will leave office with Democrats controlling a host of other statewide offices - Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins, Attorney General Drew Edmondson, Treasurer Scott Meacham.

Edmondson, who has served as the state's Attorney General since 1994 and is the scion of a prominent Oklahoma political family, is considered a leading candidate for Governor. He would seem to be the slight frontrunner in a Democratic primary, and would have a good shot in the general election as well. It's possible Askins or Meacham may also try for the Governorship, but the long-tenured Edmondson would seem to have the early edge, assuming he runs.

One advantage Edmondson may enjoy is that he's shown the ability to win even in strongly Republican years. As mentioned, he won his first election for Attorney General amid the Republican landslide of 1994, and he beat Corporation Commissioner Denise Bode (a strong candidate and a potential opponent in the Governor's race) by 20 points in 2002.

For the Republicans, possible candidates include Bode, as well as U.S. Reps. Mary Fallin (the former Lieutenant Governor) and Tom Cole (the failed NRCC chairman for the 2008 cycle), as well as Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett.

Usually, it would be assumed that the 2010 political climate would help Republicans - but then, it's difficult for the climate to get any worse for Democrats in Oklahoma than it already is. As such, the Governor's race here (assuming a high-profile Democratic nominee like Edmondson or Askins, against Fallin or Cole on the GOP side) would probably start out as a tossup.

The Senate race, on the other hand, is all but lost if incumbent Republican Tom Coburn runs again.

There's only one Democrat who could make it a race against Coburn, and that's Brad Henry. You'd think that that would make a Henry run likely, but he seems completely uninterested in challenging Coburn (though he hasn't ruled out future runs for Senate, perhaps in 2014). Henry is only 45 years old, and can wait more or less as long as he wants to run for office again.

As such, if Coburn does stick around, he shouldn't garner much more than a "kamikaze candidate" Democratic opponent (meaning a candidate who doesn't really expect to win, but hopes to gain favorability and name recognition for a future run). State Senator Kenneth Corn, who considered running last year against Jim Inhofe, might be such a candidate.

Will Coburn actually retire? It's possible - he doesn't seem to enjoy being a Senator, and certainly doesn't seem to fit into Washington very well. I imagine that the good doctor would probably be quite a bit happier at home in Muskogee than in the Senate, where he's something of a pariah even within his own party.

On the other hand, Coburn is the kind of true-believer ideologue who might stay in the Senate even though he doesn't enjoy it - he really believes he's waging a one-man crusade against wasteful spending, immorality, and so forth. I suspect that for this reason, he may run for reelection indeed rather than go home.

If Coburn did decide to retire, Democratic chances at the seat improve substantially, though Team Blue will still have an uphill battle.

The pool of potential candidates is probably more or less the same (Askins and Meacham for the Democrats, Cole and perhaps Cornett or Bode for the Republicans) with a few additions. Democratic Rep. Daniel Boren (one of the most conservative Democrats in the House) would be another potential candidate for the seat, as would State Senator Andrew Rice (the 2008 nominee) and Boren's predecessor Brad Carson (the 2004 nominee for Senate against Coburn).

Boren (son of former Governor, Senator, and OU president David Boren) might be the strongest Democratic candidate, but he'd also probably be the least desirable for progressives.

As for the House, if Fallin, Cole or Boren runs for higher office, there could be spirited races for the open seats despite the state's Republican trend (or, in the case of Boren's district, because of it). For Fallin's seat, both Andrew Rice and Kenneth Corn are possible Democratic candidates, while Mick Cornett and Denise Bode (both of whom ran for the seat in 2006, losing the primary to Fallin) could run for the Republicans, along with any number of State Reps and Senators.

For Cole's seat, my off-the-wall dream Democratic candidate is State Senator Randy Bass, a former professional baseball player who is a legend in Japan (having broken the single-season record for batting average and nearly broken the home-run record as well), and hit 455 home runs between the minor leagues, Japanese Central League, and Major League Baseball.

Oregon

Incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski is term-limited for 2010, and it's just as well; he's hardly the most popular governor in the nation at the moment.

Senior Senator Ron Wyden is also up for reelection, but he's the most popular politician in the state (sufficiently so that Republican Gordon Smith used Wyden in his ads in 2008). Unless 2010 is an exceptionally bad year for Democrats - like 1994-level bad - Wyden should draw limited opposition.

So the Governor's race should draw most of the focus in the state. Republicans are apparently trying to recruit former Senator Gordon Smith into the race. El Gordo, who at least pretends to act like a moderate, would be a pretty decent candidate even in this increasingly Democratic state, especially if 2010 isn't quite as friendly for Democrats as the 2008 wave which narrowly knocked off Smith.

If El Gordo doesn't run, two potential Republicans stand out - conservative Congressman Greg Walden, and State Rep. Jason Atkinson.

While Walden would appear to be too conservative to run statewide, Blue Oregon's Kari Chisholm thinks Atkinson might be somewhat tough:

If it's Smith or Walden, I don't see Atkinson having a chance. (And frankly, if it's Walden, I expect Atkinson to run for Congress.)

But he's a dynamic and charismatic guy, and would give our candidate a tough run.

I know there are folks out there that don't want to think about 2010 until 2010. But if we're going to beat Gordon Smith, Greg Walden, or Jason Atkinson in a governor's race - we need our candidates to get started in the next few months.

For the Democrats, one potential candidate who could clear the field - and probably defeat anything the Republicans threw at him - is beloved former Governor John Kitzhaber.

If he's out of the pool, possible candidates include Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (who got drilled by Smith in his 2002 Senate race), U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio (who has considered running for Governor or Senate a few times, and has routinely decided not to), and a number of state legislators. DeFazio could probably clear the field if he ran.

At the House level, Democrats aren't especially likely to seriously contest Greg Walden's seat even if he does run for Governor. The Republicans, on the other hand, will no doubt throw a serious challenge at freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader (OR-05), and surely will recruit a stronger candidate than Mike "White Lines" Erickson this time out.

Pennsylvania

Topping the list of exciting Pennsylvania races - and there are several - is the U.S. Senate race for the seat currently held by ancient Republican Arlen Specter.

With the news that MSNBC's Chris Matthews will not run for the seat (amusing though it would have been), the biggest names in the pool are U.S. Reps. Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz (whose predecessor, Rep. Joe Hoeffel, ran for the seat in 2004), along with State Rep. Josh Shapiro (per Pennsylvania native Adam B).

Specter would be a difficult, though not unbeatable, opponent for any of these candidates...if he's the GOP nominee himself.

Specter may face a primary challenge in his race, possibly from Club for Growth President Pat Toomey, who lost a very close primary race to Specter in 2004 (Toomey may also run for Governor). State Senator Jane Orie is also a possible candidate for a primary challenge, if Toomey declines. With Toomey (or Orie) in the race, the Democratic candidates would instantly be favored to win the Senate seat, while Specter gets the edge if he's the nominee.

The other top-of-the-ticket race in 2010 will be the Governor's race, where Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell is term-limited.

Republicans have high hopes for winning the governorship, with Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett, U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach, and U.S. Attorney Patrick Meehan all interested in the race (along with Toomey, and perhaps Lt. Gov. Joe Scarnati).

The most delicious name in the field, for Democrats, is surely former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum - Little Ricky would be a most delightful target for any Democrat seeking the Governorship.  

The Democratic field is just as crowded - Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato, State Auditor Jack Wagner, former Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf, businessman Tom Knox, and Lehigh County executive Don Cunningham.

With so many potentially in the field for both parties, it's a sucker's game to try and handicap the race at the moment.

As for the House, the Republicans will be going after Patrick Murphy's seat (particularly if he runs for Senate), along with Kathy Dahlkemper's (PA-03), Jason Altmire's (PA-04), Chris Carney's (PA-10), and Paul Kanjorski's (PA-11).

On the Democratic side, Jim Gerlach (PA-06) is endangered every year, and 2010 shouldn't be different (particularly if he runs for Governor). Other possible targets include Charlie Dent (PA-15) and Tim Murphy (PA-18).

Rhode Island

The only game in town is the Governor's race, as Republican Don Carcieri is term-limited.

The Democratic candidate list starts with the state's Lieutenant Governor, Elizabeth Roberts; the Attorney General, Patrick Lynch; and the State Treasurer, Frank Caprio. As the Lieutenant Governor, Roberts may have the early edge.

Former State Senator and perennial candidate Myrth York is hopefully done with running for the Governorship. She's lost three times.

Former lieutenant governor Charlie Fogarty nearly knocked off Carcieri in 2006 despite high approval ratings for the Republican, so he may well be a strong candidate.

Providence Mayor David Cicilline is a possible candidate as well - he would be the nation's first openly gay Governor (if you don't count the last few months of Jim McGreevey's tenure).

This leaves the current and recent U.S. Reps (Jim Langevin, Patrick Kennedy and Robert Weygand), but given that the field is likely to be crowded, the incumbents may eschew running in favor of staying in the House. Kennedy is still very young, and has a solid future in the party.

The Republicans' leading potential candidates are Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey (a Club for Growth nut who lost the 2006 Senate primary to Lincoln Chafee) and Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian (a Chafee ally, moderate Republican, and potentially the strongest GOP candidate in the general election).

Avedisian may be disinclined to run against personal friend Roberts, who is likely to run; this was the reason he did not run for lieutenant governor in 2006. In any case, he's said he'd prefer not to run:

On the Republican side, Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian flirted with the idea of running for state office, with Chafee, on an independent slate, but said early last week that he was most interested in running for Rhode Island’s 2nd Representative District seat should James R. Langevin, the Democratic incumbent, opt out. Langevin spokeswoman Joy Fox says the congressman has no plans to leave.

But Avedisian, who is up for reelection as mayor in November, said: "I don’t see myself running for governor at this point.... My first choice is to still wait for a chance to run for Congress." Lest there be any doubt where his party loyalties lie, he is also burnishing his Republican credentials by running for a seat on the Republican National Committee.

That leaves Laffey, or perhaps the Republicans can find a socially liberal business type to come out of nowhere (as Carcieri did). I get the feeling, however, that 2010 won't be their year.

Lest you wonder about the possible entry of Lincoln Chafee into the race - it's conceivable he might run, but probably only as an independent. A Roberts/Chafee/Laffey three-way race would be pretty fascinating political theater.

South Carolina

2008 was one of the best Democratic years in South Carolina in recent memory (Seriously! It was!) - Democrats came out of nowhere to force competitive races in SC-01 (where openly gay businesswoman Linda Ketner came within four points of knocking off incumbent Henry Brown) and SC-02 (where Iraq War veteran Rob Miller came within single digits of incumbent Joe Wilson).

Meanwhile, Barack Obama was also within single digits of John McCain.

This being the case, it's likely that Democrats will take the races for Governor and U.S. Senate seriously, rather than putting up another candidate like 2008 Senate nominee Bob Conley. That's not to say that Democrats stand a great shot at winning either race (even with Republican governor Mark Sanford term-limited), but they're worth kicking the tires on.

The Democratic bench in South Carolina isn't great, but here are some of the possibilities for the races:

• Former state party chair Joe Erwin. He’s expressed interest in running for office before, having mulled a 2008 challenge to Lindsey Graham.

• Former Governor Jim Hodges. He lost narrowly in 2002 to Mark Sanford, but he may have had enough time off to rehabilitate his image somewhat.

• Charleston Mayor Joe Riley. He’s been mayor since time immemorial, ran for Governor once before, may do so again.

• Robert Barber, 2006 candidate for lieutenant governor. He lost by a very narrow margin to incumbent Andre Bauer, and perhaps the second time is the charm for him.

• Education Superintendent Jim Rex. I doubt he’s looking for higher office, as he’ll be 69 years old in 2010, but one never knows. He’s the most prominent Democrat in state government at the moment.

• Former Ed. Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum. She lost in 2004 to Jim DeMint, but she won statewide twice before that – perhaps in a better political climate than 2004, she’ll have a shot at the Governor’s race.

• Businesswoman Darla Moore.

• State Representative (and Afghanistan veteran) James Smith

• State Senators Vincent Sheheen and Joel Lourie.

None of these would start out as the favorite against DeMint (or, for the Governor's race, against Republican potential candidates Rep. Gresham Barrett, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, or Attorney General Henry McMaster), but conventional wisdom suggests that several of them could make it a race.

The GOP seems content to leave Democratic Rep. John Spratt alone, and Barrett's open seat is way off in the Republican desert and unlikely to draw much of a Democratic challenge.

This leaves Henry Brown and Joe Wilson as the only Congressmen with any chance of being challenged; I sincerely hope Linda Ketner and Rob Miller, who both did a fine job in 2008, decide to run again.

And I hope DeMint gets a serious challenger. May be wishful thinking, but you never know.

South Dakota

Incumbent Governor Mike Rounds is term-limited, and Senator John Thune is up for reelection.

I would not expect Thune to get much of a challenge. As for the Governorship, it is probably Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's if she wants it (she's been elected statewide with good margins ever since winning her first race in 2003).

If she runs, Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepriem would be a contender for her open seat - he may run for Governor if Herseth Sandlin stays put. There could be several others in the Democratic primary as well - the entire Democratic slate of candidates for 2010 is dependent on what Herseth Sandlin does.

For the Republicans, State Sen. Dave Knudson is already in the governor's race, and more candidates are sure to come out of the woodwork, particularly if Herseth Sandlin gives her seat up to run for Governor.