NC-Sen: Baseline Poll Looks Good For Democrats
Mon Jan 12, 2009 at 09:35:04 AM PST
Our most recent poll from Research 2000 pits Democrats Roy Cooper, the current Attorney General of North Carolina, and Richard Moore, the state's former Treasurer, against the state's senior Senator Richard Burr.
As expected, Burr is going to have a tough race on his hands if Moore or Cooper runs, a scenario which would present yet another major headache for newly minted NRSC chair John Cornyn.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines).
Burr (R) 45
Cooper (D) 43
Very nice-looking numbers for the two Democrats. Nearly two years out, both of them have the incumbent under 50%, and Cooper is just two points shy of the Senator.
Unsurprisingly, Moore's numbers aren't quite as strong as Cooper's - while Cooper was handily reelected as Attorney General in 2008, Moore suffered a loss in a rather acrimonious primary for Governor (fortunately for Democrats, the winner of the primary, Beverly Perdue, is Governor today).
Still, Moore's strong numbers indicate that Democrats have a good shot at the seat even if Cooper, the consensus top choice for the race, decides against a run.
Both Moore and Cooper were among the names mentioned for a potential 2008 race against Elizabeth Dole, and both passed. They're probably kicking themselves now (along with a plethora of North Carolina Democrats), since the ultimate candidate, previously little-known State Senator Kay Hagan, wound up winning an impressive 9-point victory over the incumbent.
It's not always that easy - despite an initially low profile, Hagan turned out to be an outstanding campaigner and candidate, and her messaging (along with the DSCC's) was pitch-perfect in that state. Add to that that Dole, once under the gun, proved to be as ineffective on the stump as she was in the Senate. Burr will surely be expecting, and ready for, a spirited challenge. Finally, 2008 was an exceptionally good year for Democrats in North Carolina, and it's unlikely the 2010 political environment will match it.
That said, however, Burr can't take this race lightly - he's well within the danger zone for incumbents, and his exceptionally weak favorables of 47/46 indicate that he's ripe for the picking.
Race tracker wiki: NC-Sen
NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS – JANUARY 2009
The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from January 5 through January 7, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 287 (48%)
Women 313 (52%)
Democrats 258 (43%)
Republicans 204 (34%)
Independents/Other 138 (23%)
18-29 107 (18%)
30-44 198 (33%)
45-59 192 (32%)
60+ 103 (17%)
White 426 (71%)
Black 132 (22%)
Other 42 (7%)
Raleigh/Durham 186 (31%)
Charlotte 204 (34%)
Greensboro/WS 119 (20%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roy Cooper? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 16% 25% 16% 5% 38%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 41% 21% 38%
MEN 38% 25% 37%
WOMEN 44% 17% 39%
DEMOCRATS 59% 10% 31%
REPUBLICANS 21% 36% 43%
INDEPENDENTS 37% 19% 44%
18-29 44% 18% 38%
30-44 40% 22% 38%
45-59 42% 21% 37%
60+ 38% 23% 39%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Richard Moore? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 14% 23% 19% 8% 36%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 37% 27% 36%
MEN 35% 30% 35%
WOMEN 39% 24% 37%
DEMOCRATS 53% 15% 32%
REPUBLICANS 19% 44% 37%
INDEPENDENTS 34% 24% 42%
18-29 40% 23% 37%
30-44 37% 29% 34%
45-59 37% 27% 36%
60+ 35% 29% 36%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Richard Burr? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 14% 33% 32% 14% 7%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 47% 46% 7%
MEN 52% 44% 4%
WOMEN 42% 48% 10%
DEMOCRATS 32% 61% 7%
REPUBLICANS 67% 28% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 45% 10%
18-29 44% 48% 8%
30-44 48% 45% 7%
45-59 47% 47% 6%
60+ 49% 44% 7%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Roy Cooper the Democrat and Richard Burr the Republican?
BURR COOPER UNDECIDED
ALL 45% 43% 12%
MEN 49% 41% 10%
WOMEN 41% 45% 14%
DEMOCRATS 14% 74% 12%
REPUBLICANS 83% 6% 11%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 40% 13%
WHITE 60% 28% 12%
BLACK 7% 82% 11%
OTHER 10% 70% 20%
18-29 41% 45% 14%
30-44 47% 42% 11%
45-59 44% 44% 12%
60+ 49% 41% 10%
RALEIGH/DUR 40% 49% 11%
CHARLOTTE 49% 38% 13%
GREENSBORO/WS 51% 37% 12%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Richard Moore the Democrat and Richard Burr the Republican?
BURR MOORE UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 40% 14%
MEN 50% 38% 12%
WOMEN 42% 42% 16%
DEMOCRATS 14% 71% 15%
REPUBLICANS 84% 5% 11%
INDEPENDENTS 49% 35% 16%
WHITE 62% 25% 13%
BLACK 6% 81% 13%
OTHER 10% 69% 21%
18-29 41% 42% 17%
30-44 48% 39% 13%
45-59 45% 41% 14%
60+ 50% 38% 12%
RALEIGH/DUR 41% 47% 12%
CHARLOTTE 50% 35% 15%
GREENSBORO/WS 52% 34% 14%
