NY-Sen: Kennedy's slow fade continues

Quinnipiac Univ. 1/8-12. Registered voters. MoE 2.4% (12/23/08 results)

Who do you think Governor Paterson should pick to replace Hillary Clinton in the United States Senate - Caroline Kennedy, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Carolyn Maloney, Steve Israel or someone else?

Cuomo 31 (29)
Kennedy 24 (33)
Gillibrand 5 (4)
Maloney 6 (n/a)
Israel 2 (n/a)
Someone else 18 (24)
DK/NA 14 (10)

In truth, no candidate gets dominant support, which would argue for a caretaker appointee. But given Gov. Paterson's recent remarks, I suppose that ship has sailed. So with the two big fish -- Cuomo and Kennedy -- the shift in the past three weeks is stark -- a +11 gain by Cuomo, from a narrow deficit to a fairly significant advantage. And why this big drop?

11. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable 57 (55)
Unfavorable 10 (11)

12. Is your opinion of Caroline Kennedy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

Favorable 39 (46)
Unfavorable 29 (17)

Cuomo is wildly popular, and has weathered this process well, with marginal improvements in his numbers. Kennedy, on the other hand, has suffered a 19-point drop in her favorability numbers.

These numbers confirm what PPP saw last week.

Last month almost twice as many Democrats said they wanted to see Kennedy appointed to the Senate as said they preferred Cuomo. Now he has a 20 point advantage within the party.

If Kennedy does receive the appointment it's safe to say she'll need to do some mending of her reputation.

In the PPP polling, Kennedy led Cuomo 44-34 in December, and trailed him 54-34 last week. Kennedy's high-powered consultants and PR rollout has been an unmitigated disaster. The more people see of Kennedy, the less impressed they become. It's a startling collapse, but ultimately, the Kennedy attraction was based on her pedigree and little else. As people got a look beyond the powerful last name, there was little else to commend her.

We've got our own R2K polling of New York in the field right now, and we'll hopefully have results ready to go tomorrow.