Next Year's Model: New Hampshire Through Ohio

Part IV in a series of posts on the prospective elections for 2009 and 2010 tackles New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota and Ohio.

New Hampshire

The Senate race should be the biggest game in town next cycle. With former Governor Jeanne Shaheen having taken out Republican Sen. John Sununu in 2008, the party is enthusiastic about taking on three-term Sen. Judd Gregg, a former Congressman and Governor. Despite Gregg's long tenure in New Hampshire politics (he was first elected to the House in 1980) the state and national parties are bullish on the chances of taking him on. Gregg hasn't faced a serious opponent since his first Senate race in 1992, and a lot has changed since then.  

Both of the state's Democratic Representatives, Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01) and Paul Hodes (NH-02) have been mentioned as possible candidates for the seat. (So, too, has popular Governor John Lynch, but he has yet to personally evince any interest in the Senate, or in Washington, which is just as well). Of the two Reps, it's my personal opinion that Hodes would be a stronger candidate, though Shea-Porter would be a legitimate contender in her own right.

If neither one of them runs, nor Lynch, possible candidates could include Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, and Katrina Swett, wife of former Rep. Dick Swett and daughter of former Rep. Tom Lantos, along with a number of state senators, businesspeople, etc. We'll see how it shakes down, but the Reps are the big names at the moment.

As for Lynch, he'll presumably run for reelection as Governor, and cruise to victory.

If Hodes and Shea-Porter stick around, either one could face a decent challenge, depending on how good a year 2010 will be for Republicans. Of the two, Shea-Porter is more likely to get a strong challenge, in part due to the fact that her district is the more Republican-friendly of the two. She was reelected with 52% in a Democratic year in 2008. On the one hand, that's quite good considering she was one of the top incumbent Democratic targets in the country for the GOP. On the other hand, 52% is one of the lowest percentages for any Democrat reelected in 2008, even among freshman who had taken Republican-held districts (only Michael Arcuri did worse among those reelected).

I'd be surprised if Shea-Porter didn't face at least one more strong challenge, but I also think she's in much better shape to defend her seat. Among other things, her fundraising has improved quite significantly over time, and she's already raising money for 2010.

NEW JERSEY

One of the top (and only) races in 2009 will be the New Jersey Governor's race, where incumbent Governor and former Senator Jon Corzine (D) will be running for reelection.

He's expected to face former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, who has polled within single digits of the governor. Before you get overly concerned with that fact, though, consider that New Jersey has been a top Republican target for years, and they keep coming up with zilch.

Republicans though they could defeat Jon Corzine in 2000 and 2005, thought they could take out Frank Lautenberg in 2008, thought they could beat Robert Menendez in 2006, thought they had a shot in the 2002 Torricelli/Lautenberg Senate race and the 2001 Governor's race, and yet they've lost all of them.

Even the greatest Republican victories of the last twenty years - the election and reelection of Christine Todd Whitman - were won by the barest of margins. Whitman beat Jim Florio by exactly one point in 1993, and even with the advantage of incumbency she nearly lost to Jim McGreevey in 1997, again winning by only one point.

As for recent history, in 2008, 84-year-old Senator Frank Lautenberg hammered his Republican opponent Dick Zimmer, beating him 56-42 for the biggest victory of his career. Meanwhile, Barack Obama beat John McCain severely, 57-42.

So while Christie is a pretty good candidate, will probably run close to Corzine for most of the year, and certainly could defeat the governor, New Jersey has not been a particularly friendly state for Republicans the past thirty years, and he'll have to work against that.

There's no Senate race, but as for the House, the two New Jersey freshmen in Congress - Democrat John Adler and Republican Leonard Lance - will probably receive the most attention. Depending on the political tides over the next two years, either one of them - or neither one, or both - could be vulnerable in 2010.

Democrats have quietly made some noise in recent years about making a serious run at Republican Frank LoBiondo - State Sen. Jeff Van Drew has been mentioned as a possible candidate. We'll have to see, although LoBiondo's district does lean Democratic at the presidential level.

NEW MEXICO

With Governor Bill Richardson now sticking around for the next two years, depriving Lt. Gov Diane Denish of two years of incumbency (and potentially spicing up New Mexico politics with a bit of Democratic scandal), the New Mexico has a small bit of good news after the worst year they've ever had.

They'll have to start rebuilding now, with Democrats in control across the board at the federal and state levels.

With Denish the presumptive gubernatorial nominee for the Democrats in 2010, and three Democratic Reps running for reeelection, one of the big questions is what former Rep. Heather Wilson will do. Wilson survived a number of tough challenges in the purple First District before retiring to lose a Senate primary in 2008.

If she runs for Governor, she'd be a pretty formidable candidate, but not necessarily favored against Denish. It's rumored that this is in fact what she will do.

If she doesn't, she might wait for a Senate run if and when Jeff Bingaman retires, or perhaps run for her old seat again, against Democratic Rep-elect Martin Heinrich. Highly touted Republican candidate Darren White wound up crashing and burning in 2008, losing by 10 points. He might run again, or perhaps run for another office in 2010. It's likely the Republicans will at least try to reclaim the seat, but now that they've lost it, it will be a tough slog to get it back.

On the other hand, it's a sure bet that is 2010 is even marginally good for Republicans, they'll take a shot at Democratic Rep.-elect Harry Teague in the Second District. Teague's district is quite Republican, at R+5.7, but nevertheless he won a genuinely impressive victory in 2008, beating restaurateur Ed Tinsley by 12 points, 56-44.

The district's Republican tilt alone will ensure that whoever they nominate (provided it isn't Tinsley) will be quoted decent odds, but Teague proved himself a pretty adept politician in 2008, and should be more than ready for the fight.

It's pretty impossible for things to get any better for Democrats in New Mexico; let's hope that everyone holds on in 2010.

New York

The big race is the Senate race, and we won't know what to expect from that until we know who Governor David Paterson will appoint to the seat. Whoever it is, though, will likely face a pretty strong challenge from Rep. Peter King.

I'm not, you know, particularly, uh, enamored, you know, of Caroline, you know, Kennedy as a, uh, Senator, and I hope Paterson appoints someone else. If she is the candidate against King in 2010, however, she'll have the advantage of having plenty of money to spend, and a famous name.

King, for his part, can paint her pretty easily as a Park Avenue liberal (which should work well upstate and on Long Island), as the scion of political royalty (in contrast to his own working-class background), and as an inexperienced politician (which she certainly seems to be).

Will it work? It might in theory, but King has his own liabilities for a statewide run. He's pro-life, which should ensure that he'll be thrashed in New York City. Besides, New York is a Democratic state, increasingly so over the past decade, and at this juncture it takes a pretty stellar campaign to win statewide, even against a weaker candidate.

Gov. Paterson will also be running for reelection. Rudy Giuliani has made noises about running for Governor, and I sincerely hope he does, because I don't think he'd have much of a chance of winning and I do think he'd be a lot of fun to kick around a little more.

I don't think it actually makes sense for Rudy to run - I doubt he'd like Albany, and after the spectacular fashion in which his presidential campaign crashed and burned I'd consider it a good move to stay away from cameras for a while.

If Rudy doesn't run, it's left to the Republicans to find someone in the State Senate, or something like that, who can wage a "Pataki-type" candidacy and take out the favored incumbent. The Republican bench in New York State is pretty much at its lowest ebb.

As for the U.S. House, there are a few Democratic freshmen they might want to try challenging. Rep.-elect Eric Massa is high on that list, as he represents one of the state's most Republican districts.

Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, if she wins up getting the Senate appointment (or runs for the seat in the 2010 primary) represents a district which could certainly be vulnerable if she's not running.

Democratic Reps-elect Dan Maffei and Michael McMahon are also possible GOP targets, though the party did such a spectacularly horrendous job of targeting McMahon this cycle that I can't imagine they'd be organized enough to take out an incumbent in that seat.

Democratic targets are limited since Republican Congressmen from New York are limited (there are only three left) but topping the list is the potential Peter King open seat. Democrats will jump all over it unless King changes his mind about not standing for reelection, and it should be a highly competitive race.

Rep.-elect Chris Lee of NY-26 might also face a decent challenge (please, God, no more Crazy Jack Davis). The one seat which will almost certainly be left alone is John McHugh in NY-23.

NORTH CAROLINA

There's no Governor's race here, but there should be a fantastic Senate race, one of the best anywhere, as Democrats gear up to challenge freshman Sen. Richard Burr.

After Kay Hagan defeated Elizabeth Dole by nine points - and Barack Obama won North Carolina, and Larry Kissell won NC-08, and Bev Perdue was elected Governor - Democrats are riding very high in North Carolina. The archconservative Burr is the biggest and most obvious target, as most of the remaining Republican House seats are out of range for the Democrats in a normal year.

Possible candidates for the seat include Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper and former State Treasurer Richard Moore, both of whom opted against running for Senate in 2008 and no doubt regret it now. From the state's Congressional delegation, Reps. Heath Shuler and the more progressive Brad Miller are also possible candidates.

Any of them would have a shot against Burr - Cooper is probably the strongest of all candidates - but regardless of who the candidate is, it won't be an easy race. The seat has changed hands every election since 1974, which certainly speaks to the volatility of North Carolina politics. Other than Jesse Helms, no North Carolina Senator has been reelected in the past 40 years. Nevertheless, North Carolina is still not exactly a blue state, and especially if 2010 is a better year for Republicans than the last two election years, Burr will have some added strength heading into reelection.

At the House level, Larry Kissell will top the target list for Republicans, and if Heath Shuler runs for Senate, his open seat will be hotly contested as well. Outside of those, I wouldn't expect any seat to receive heavy attention from the state and national parties.

NORTH DAKOTA

There will be either one extremely hot race in 2010, or nothing.

Whether anything interesting happens here is dependent on whether Republican Governor John Hoeven (one of, if not the most popular politicians in the state), decides to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan, who has won three Senate elections in a historically Republican state.

It would be a knock-down, drag-out fight if Hoeven got in, and doubtless one of the most watched Senate races anywhere. If he does not run, however, Dorgan should be reelected fairly easily. One thing which might push Hoeven to run is that he would get a free shot at Dorgan, having been reelected in 2008 and consequently not having to abandon the Governorship if he declines to run.

There's also the chance Dorgan might retire, which would make Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy the default choice for the seat (unless Hoeven ran, which could doom Pomeroy and lead him to opt against a run). If that sort of domino effect does occur, we should see an exciting race for the open seat.

OHIO

Whether or not incumbent Sen. George Voinovich winds up retiring, the Democratic pool of potential Senate candidates is very wide and very strong.

Rep. Tim Ryan has been touted for years as a possible Senator, and has reportedly evinced interest in running (he opted against such a run in 2006 against Mike DeWine, for the seat that ultimately went to "Downtown" Sherrod Brown).

Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher has also been pushed for the seat, and would be a pretty strong candidate in his own right. The list gets more speculative from there, but possibilities include Reps. Betty Sutton and Zack Space.

As for the Governor's race, Ted Strickland will be running for reelection. His once-considerable popularity has dipped a bit, but he'll stand a very good shot at reelection regardless.

No one has declared yet on the Republican side, but former Congressman (and Bush OMB director) Rob Portman is one potential candidate. There will undoubtedly be others as well (what's John Kasich up to these days?)

Strickland will start as the favorite; how he fares depends largely on how bad the next two years are economically, especially since Ohio has been hit particularly hard by the downturn.

At the House level, things should be pretty stable - it's possible there might be some kind of Republican challenges to Democrats Steve Driehaus, Mary Jo Kilroy and Zack Space, or Democratic challenges to Repubs Jean Schmidt, Pat Tiberi and Steve LaTourette.

It may be more likely, however, that aspiring Reps wait until after the 2012 redistricting when things may be a bit more clear (Ohio will likely lose two seats). Control of redistricting is pretty much up in the air, so both parties will likely focus resources on gaining full control at the state level.