TN-Gov, TN-03: Bill Frist won't run, Zach Wamp will

Meow!

Former U.S Senator Bill Frist announced late Sunday evening that he will not be a candidate for governor of Tennessee in 2010. Frist issued a statement to the Associated Press stating that "After significant reflection and conversations with loved ones, I have decided to remain a private citizen for the foreseeable future."

The move by Frist dramatically opens up the Republican field, as a number of GOP gubernatorial aspirants had said that they would not make the race had Frist run.

Among those who have said that they would run with Frist out is Congressman Zach Wamp of Chattanooga, District Attorney Bill Gibbons of Memphis and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam.

Remember Bill Frist? It seems just ages ago that the Cat-Killer himself was the man holding court over the United States Senate, providing medical diagnoses for Terri Schiavo via video feed and various other exciting manuevers like that.

How the mighty have fallen; once tabbed as a future Presidential nominee, the former Senate Majority Leader now won't even sign on to take the reins of his own state.

It's rather fortunate for Democrats, as Frist was the one guy who would likely have cleared the Republican field, and he would have been the most formidable opponent for Team Blue in the 2010 election.

So this leaves who? Well, this guy, for one:

Rep. Zach Wamp (R) announced Monday morning that he would run for governor in Tennessee in 2010, creating an open House seat in what should be a safe Republican district.

For the time being, forget about Wamp's seat. TN-03 has a robust "old PVI" of R+8.5, meaning that it would take some pretty freakish circumstances for a Democrat to be competitive here. It's not impossible (see Travis Childers and MS-01), but it's also not exactly likely.

How competitive would Wamp be statewide? Quite competitive, one would think, particularly if 2010 favors Republicans more than the last two cycles have done. Wamp is a reliable conservative (and was a rising star in the House, among the rabid conservative faction), so he shouldn't have base problems. He might lose some of the moderates, though, especially as he'll have to outwingnut the other folks in a contested GOP primary.

Both of the Democrats being tipped to run are centrists/conservatives - Rep. Lincoln Davis, and former Congressman, Senate candidate and current MSNBC contributor Harold Ford Jr. Of these two, Ford is the further to the left, although he's certainly no liberal lion - he gets a lot of well-deserved criticism, but it's likely (and unfortunate) that he will be the liberal option in the Governor's race.

In a general election against Wamp, both of them would probably have a shot - Ford came very close to winning statewide in 2006 against Bob Corker, Wamp may or may not be a tougher foe. A lot depends on whether Wamp actually wins the primary, how much he has to stretch to the right to do so (and risk losing the center), what kind of political climate 2010 will see (if it's neutral, that's OK, but if it goes back to, say, 2002 levels, that's very bad).

We'll see how things shake down.