CA-Sen: Middling numbers for both Boxer, Schwarzenegger

At this point, I'd bet against Arnold actually running for Senate, but if he were in fact to do so, here are the numbers pitting him against California's junior Democratic Senator, Barbara Boxer:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines).

Boxer (D) 49
Schwarzenegger (R) 40

Neither candidate should be exactly thrilled about these numbers.

For the Governator, the best news is obviously in the toplines; he's within single digits of a three-term incumbent, and has her under 50%. That certainly indicates that she's vulnerable, and that Ah-nold might have a shot.

Well, except for the fact that he has little room to grow - his name recognition is near-universal, 93% of respondents have an opinion of him, and his abysmal 42/51 favorable/unfavorable numbers suggest that a majority of Californians agree that this Terminator is an obsolete model (yeah, I saw Terminator III, sue me).

Boxer's own favorables aren't great (48/46), but at least they're positive. In fact, Arnold's favorables are bad enough - and the toplines not quite good enough - that this polling would seem to suggest Arnold not be a Running Man for any office in 2010.

On the flip side, Boxer's top-line numbers (as stated) are pretty uninspiring, and they certainly show she's vulnerable. As the political climate is likely to get worse between now and 2010, Boxer could have a real race on her hands if the GOP can find a good enough candidate.

There's the rub, however; they don't exactly have a wealth of good candidates for the seat. Two of the stronger ones - Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman - are likely running for Governor, which leaves the field emptier, and Arnold himself, as stated, doesn't look all that strong against Boxer.

Another reason for optimism - despite Arnold's vaunted moderation and purported strength among Democrats (which helped him to a big reelection victory in 2006), Boxer gets more support from Republicans than Arnie does from Dems.

Overall, the potential is there for the GOP to at least throw a good scare into Boxer; they need to find the right candidate. With Arnold's favorables in the proverbial toilet, he doesn't seem to be the Predator they're looking for. What they should do is find a likable, effective and moderate member of the State Assembly or Senate with room to grow - a Kay Hagan type, say - or a city mayor like San Diego's Jerry Sanders (a prominent supporter of marriage equality). The problem there, however, is that running statewide in the nation's largest state - especially against a three-term Senator - requires gobs of money - particularly for a Republican, particularly for a lesser-known candidate.

So we'll have to see what the California GOP comes up with. Boxer and Dianne Feinstein have been solidly entrenched for the bulk of the past two decades, and this might be the GOP's best shot in a while to take one of them out. At this point, though, that seems easier said than done.

CALIFORNIA POLL RESULTS – JANUARY 2009
                                                                 
The Research 2000 California Poll was conducted from January 5 through January 7, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  287 (48%)
Women                313 (52%)

Democrats            263 (44%)
Republicans          198 (33%)
Independents/Other   139 (23%)

White                390 (65%)
Black                 54 (9%)
Hispanic             102 (17%)
Asian                 35 (6%)
Other                 19 (3%)

18-29                101 (20%)
30-44                181 (30%)
45-59                192 (33%)
60+                  126 (17%)

Northern              37 (6%)
Central              108 (18%)
LA County            144 (24%)
Bay                  126 (21%)
Southern             185 (31%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Arnold Schwarzenegger? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 10%         32%         37%         14%          7%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 42%         51%          7%

MEN                 45%         49%          6%
WOMEN               39%         53%          8%

DEMOCRATS           31%         64%          5%
REPUBLICANS         60%         31%          9%
INDEPENDENTS        38%         55%          7%

18-29               38%         55%          7%
30-44               41%         52%          7%
45-59               43%         50%          7%
60+                 46%         48%          6%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barbara Boxer? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 12%         36%         35%         11%          6%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 48%         46%          6%

MEN                 45%         50%          5%
WOMEN               51%         42%          7%

DEMOCRATS           66%         29%          5%
REPUBLICANS         27%         69%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         45%         10%

18-29               51%         43%          6%
30-44               50%         45%          5%
45-59               47%         47%          6%
60+                 43%         49%          8%

QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Barbara Boxer the Democrat and Arnold Schwarzeneggerthe Republican?

                   BOXER   SCHWARZENEGGER  UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         40%         11%

MEN                 42%         48%         10%
WOMEN               56%         32%         12%

DEMOCRATS           80%         11%          9%
REPUBLICANS         13%         77%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        43%         42%         15%

WHITE               40%         48%         12%
BLACK               83%          7%         10%
HISPANIC            63%         29%          8%
ASIAN               58%         35%          7%
OTHER               47%         43%         10%

18-29               52%         36%         12%
30-44               51%         39%         10%
45-59               48%         41%         11%
60+                 46%         43%         11%

NORTHERN            50%         37%         13%
CENTRAL             42%         48%         10%
LA COUNTY           56%         33%         11%
BAY                 62%         29%          9%
SOUTHERN            39%         48%         13%