MO-Sen: Speculation Swirls With Bond Out

With the announced retirement of Missouri's senior Senator, Christopher "Kit" Bond, who is prepared to hang up his spurs after four terms in Washington, the field is wide open for Bond's potential replacement in both parties.

The most prominent likely Democratic candidate - and probably the only person in either party who could clear the field in her primary - is Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. A 2010 race makes a lot of sense for Carnahan, daughter of Governor Mel Carnahan, Senator Jean Carnahan, and sister of Rep. Russ Carnahan. She gets a free shot at the race without having to abandon her current job, she's one of the most prominent Democratic politicians in the state and she polled strongly even when pitted against Bond.

Ben Smith at the Politico seems to think a Carnahan run is likely:

On the Democratic side, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, daughter of the late Sen. Mel Carnahan, will likely be the nominee. One Democratic operative said she has already been preparing for a Senate campaign – even before Bond announced his retirement.

Carnahan won more than 1.74 million votes statewide in 2008 — more than any other statewide Democratic candidate in Missouri history.

If she doesn't run, there's a good chance her brother Russ will, and Kansas City Congressman (and former Mayor) Emanuel Cleaver might explore a run. State Auditor Susan Montee is another possibility, and there may be still others (perhaps an enterprising State Representative or Senator like 2008 Congressional candidate Judy Baker, or a former statewide elected official like Roger Wilson or Joe Maxwell).

On the Republican side, however, it looks to be full-on chaos.

Former U.S. Senator Jim Talent, still smarting from his 2006 loss to Claire McCaskill, looks poised to run:

Two Republican operatives close to former Sen. Jim Talent say he is likely to run for the Missouri Senate seat of retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.).

One Republican operative close to Talent said that he has been "itching to run" since losing to Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) in 2006, and is eager to make a political comeback.

He won't be alone. Also apparently mulling a run:

• U.S. Rep. Sam Graves, one of the more controversial figures in the state party.
• Former U.S. House Majority Leader Rep. Roy Blunt. He's been in Washington dog's years, but he's still only 58.
• Former Congressman (and failed 2006 gubernatorial candidate) Kenny Hulshof. Hulshof got absolutely waxed in the governor's race by Democrat Jay Nixon, so he may be persona non grata in the state party.
• Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman. She lost in the Gov primary to Hulshof (she would likely have been a stronger general-election candidate), and may want to get back in the game.
• Current Missouri House Speaker Rod Jetton.
• Current U.S. Attorney and former House Speaker Catherine Hanaway.
• U.S. Rep. Jo Ann Emerson.

I don't think any candidate, including Talent, has the juice to clear the field, so it looks to get ugly.

I think I've found the perfect GOP candidate, however. He's young, handsome, and represents a fresh face for a divided Missouri GOP. He believes in "values", which surely both moderates and hard-core righties can agree upon. He gained valuable political experience from a failed 2006 run in the Ninth District.

His name even sounds like "Barack Obama", so he could become a fearsome general-election candidate appealing to Democrats and Republicans alike.

He is called Brock Olivo, and the Republicans should start recruiting him right away. I think it'll work out swimmingly for the GOP and good old Brock.

Seriously, though, the GOP is likely to have a pretty messy primary on their hands, while there's a chance Robin Carnahan could clear the field on our side. This would be a very, very good outcome for the Democratic Party.

But regardless of what happens, expect a tight race through November 2010. Consider the recent statewide results in Missouri:

MO-Sen 1998: Kit Bond (R) 53%, Jay Nixon (D) 44%
MO-Sen 2000: Mel Carnahan (D) 50%, John Ashcroft (R) 48%
MO-Gov 2000: Bob Holden (D) 49%, Jim Talent (R) 48%
MO-Pres 2000: George W. Bush (R) 50%, Al Gore (D) 47%
MO-Sen 2002: Jim Talent (R) 50%, Jean Carnahan (D) 49%
MO-Sen 2004: Kit Bond (R) 56%, Nancy Farmer (D) 43%
MO-Gov 2004: Matt Blunt (R) 51%, Claire McCaskill (D) 48%
MO-Pres 2004: George W. Bush (R) 53%, John Kerry (D) 46%
MO-Sen 2006: Claire McCaskill (D) 50%, Jim Talent (R) 47%
MO-Gov 2008: Jay Nixon (D) 58%, Kenny Hulshof (R) 39%
MO-Pres 2009: John McCain (R) 49%, Barack Obama (D) 49%

It's a good bet this one will be fairly close.