Quinnipiac Univ. 9/22-28. All voters. MoE 3% (7/22 results)
Democratic primary
Specter (D) 44 (55)
Sestak (D) 25 (23)
Don't Know 28 (19)
This is not too far off our last poll in August, which had Specter 48, Sestak 33 (compared to 56-11 in May). The R2K poll seemed to push people a little harder than this one, but regardless, everyone is showing a tightening race. In fact, Quinnipiac suggests that as people become more aware of Sestak, they're getting off the Specter bandwagon and slotting into the undecided column. Let's test that theory:
Specter:
Favorable 42 (45)
Unfavorable 46 (44)
Sestak:
Favorable 21 (23)
Unfavorable 8 (7)
So much for my theory. 70 percent of voters don't know who Sestak is, and there's no real change in either candidate's favorabilities. Looks like Specter supporters, for whatever reason, are just deciding to give Sestak a chance, but not because they are becoming disenchanted with Specter. Weird. Whatever the reason, I'll take it. Sestak's upside is huge given his poor name recognition, and with plenty of time left before the primary, Sestak can afford to gradually chip away at Specter's numbers, and apparently the best way for him to do so is to simply introduce himself to voters. OpenLeft asked Quinnipiac for primary matchups among voters who knew both candidates. They numbered just 163, so big MoE, but still:
Democrats who have heard of both candidates
Sestak 43
Specter 39