As we reach (an unusually wet, at least here in SoCal) midweek, we have quite a few political stories to ponder as we descend the hill towards the weekend....
NJ-Gov: Yet Another Poll Has It Deadlocked, Obama to Jump Into Race
Two big headlines out of the Garden State today (well, three, if you count the new ethical imbroglio in which Christie has managed to get caught up). A new poll was released by Quinnipiac this morning has two characteristics common to every poll taken in the state in the last two weeks: Corzine is closer now than he was in the previous poll, and the race is an absolute coin-flip. The net result is a Christie lead of just a point (41-40-14). Meanwhile, in news that should fire up Corzine supporters, the President will be making a return appearance to the state next week, stumping in Hackensack for the Democratic incumbent.
PA-Sen: Sestak Beats Toomey, Specter Loses To Him, According to Ras
A new survey released late in the day by Rasmussen confirms a trend that has been noticeable over several recent surveys. The long-promulgated meme that Specter, as a former Republican, is somehow more electable than Joe Sestak, continues to take a beating. In the new Rasmussen poll on the Pennsylvania Senate race, incumbnent Senator Specter trails likely GOP nominee Patrick Toomey by five points (45-40), while challenger Sestak actually leads Toomey by a point (38-37). In campaign finance news, Specter announced a haul of 1.8 million dollars for the quarter, which also gives him over 8 million in cash on hand.
FL-Gov: GOP Poll For Chamber of Commerce Gives GOP Modest Lead
There is an interesting poll floating around in the Sunshine State that was conducted for the Florida Chamber of Commerce by little known Cherry Communications. Alas, it was not this part of the poll that was terribly intriguing. According to the Chamber, Republican Bill McCollum has a seven-point edge over Democrat Alex Sink (42-35). This is slightly closer than the Chamber's previous poll over the summer. The intriguing aspect of the poll is still only rumor, and it is on the Senate side of the electoral ledger....
FL-Sen: Chamber Sitting on Tightening Poll Numbers??
...Where you have to read between the lines, but the St. Petersburg Times is saying "We've heard some Buzz about very interesting Marco Rubio vs. Charlie Crist numbers in a new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll". This, of course, is little more than speculation on my part, but another 20-30 point lead would not be considered "very interesting." They must have numbers which put Rubio within striking distance. There is one other interesting component of the Chamber's poll vis-a-vis Governor Charlie Crist. The CoC poll gives Crist pretty darned good approval numbers (62/28). This is a decline from the Chamber's previous survey, when Crist had a glowing 67% job approval. Where this gets really curious is the fact that Insider Advantage released their own Crist job approval numbers, and they found them to be extremely different from the CoC poll. Insider Advantage had Crist's job approval spread at a fairly woeful 48/41. This, of course, is far worse than anyone else has shown.
NY-15: Charlie Rangel Might Be Primaried By Former Staffer
In an interesting twist that might speak to the ethics woes plaguing the longtime Congressman, New York Democrat Charlie Rangel is facing potential primary challenge from the man who was his campaign director earlier in the decade. His name is Vincent Morgan, and he works now as a community banker. He is quoted as saying, "It's time to think about what comes after Charlie. We need a change." Rangel is currently under an ethics committee investigation.
VA-Gov: McDonnell is Anti-Anti-Discrimination
Shorter Bob McDonnell: As governor I will permit discrimination toward gay and lesbian people.
Longer Bob McDonnell is, well, longer. He's hoping you've stopped listening by the time he answers the question.
(Via AmericaBlog) -- (Laura Clawson)
THE MONEY CHASE: On Deadline Eve, More Campaigns Show Their Cards
Lots of financial reports to mull over as we approach the October 15th deadline to submit third quarter fundraising figures to the FEC. The theme for the day was monstrous third-quarter hauls from challengers in the 2010 election cycle. The big number came from former Congressman Steve Pearce in NM-02, where he hauled in over $500K for the quarter. Democrats had their own reasons to crow today: in PA-15, Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan made it clear that he is dead serious about taking down fourth-term incumbent Republican Charlie Dent, as Callahan amassed a total over $345K for the quarter. Across the country in CA-03, physician Ami Bera followed up an eye-popping second quarter (just under 300K) with an even stronger 3rd quarter ($335K). Bera is one of a handful of Democrats challenging Republican Dan Lungren, who was elected with just 49% of the vote last year. At the statewide level, there were a pair of eye-poppers, but going in different directions. In Texas, where Kay Bailey Hutchison is expected to resign to pursue the governorship, Democrat Bill White had another solid quarter, logging $1.5 million for the quarter and bringing himself over $6 million for the cycle. On the other side of the coin was incumbent Democrat Chris Dodd in Connecticut, whose 3rd quarter total of $900K is likely to be less than two of his Republican rivals (Rob Simmons and Linda McMahon). In Dodd's defense, he did have to leave the campaign circuit during the August break as he was recovering from cancer surgery.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- More hard-to-fathom Democratic "bipartisanship", as Democrat Bart Stupak throws down twenty five hundred dollars to get Republican Zach Wamp elected Governor of Tennessee (actually, this is apparently personal friendship at work).
- As alluded to briefly above, Linda McMahon is going to spend lavishly from her own pocket, and she is also trying hard to portray herself as the lamentable victim of a gang-up attack from the other Republicans in the race. It will likely be hard to feel twinges of sympathy for someone who has already spent over two million bucks in the first few weeks of her campaign.
- Michael Steele might be learning. After seeming to endorse Illinois Senate candidate Mark Kirk (and then having to retract said endorsement), Steele seems to have found the right formula. He said the requisite nice things about longtime Utah incumbent Senator Bob Bennett, but made it clear that Utahns would be the ultimate "deciders" of Bennett's fate.
- As Mr. "Pull the Plug on Grandma" himself, Chuck Grassley (R-IA), deals with flagging poll numbers, he also finds a potentially explosive Democratic candidate contemplating a bid: former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack.
- Speaking of Iowa, former Governor Terry Branstad is apparently going to make his comeback bid official this Friday.
- This morning, Politico threw out a pretty unbelievable scenario: can Democrats score the upset in the November special election to replace John McHugh in NY-23 because the Republican nominee runs out of cash?