Time to put a Wrap on Monday, while hiding the Halloween candy another dozen or two dozen times before the kids pick up its scent...
AR-Sen: DSCC Poll More Bullish on Lincoln Than Other Pollsters
I know the headline is a revelation on the order of "sun rises in east", but the DSCC has commissioned a poll in Arkansas, and unlike recent pollsters (including your pals here at Daily Kos), they find Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln in a fairly comfortable position. The new poll, from Benenson Strategies, gives Lincoln a double-digit advantage over both presumptive favorite Gilbert Baker (50-37) and state legislator Kim Hendren (51-37). Other polls have shown her within the margin of error, with some polls actually showing her facing a narrow deficit.
IL-Sen: Rasmussen Polls Land of Lincoln, Finds It Deadlocked
In their tour of the 2010 Senate races, Rasmussen Reports takes the temperature in the state of Illinois on this Monday, and they find it to be a dead heat. According to Rasmussen, presumptive Republican nominee Mark Kirk is tied with Democratic frontrunner Alexi Giannoulias, with both candidates checking in with 41% of the vote. Kirk has marginal leads over both Democrats Cheryle Jackson (43-39) and David Hoffman (43-33).
IL-Gov: Pat Quinn In Strong Position For Re-Election, According to SIU Poll
While they elected not to test head-to-head general election matchups, a new poll by Southern Illinois University makes it fairly easy to conclude that Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is in solid shape heading into 2010. For one thing, despite being faced with a very credible challenge in the Democratic Primary, Quinn doubles up his potentially formidable challenger, state Controller Dan Hynes (34-17). Also, Quinn has a 67% job approval rating, which is better in the state than even Barack Obama (who sits on a pretty amenable 64% rating in his own right). A couple of cautions about the poll: the primary subsets have obscenely high margins of error (only 89 Republicans were polled). The poll was also in the field for an almost absurd length of time (one full month).
FL-Sen: Details of Chamber of Commerce Mystery Poll Emerging
Last week, as the Florida Chamber of Commerce released a poll showing Republican Bill McCollum leading Democrat Alex Sink. At the time, rumors were rampant that the CoC was sitting on a poll in the Senate race whose results were potentially explosive. We know a little more now about that poll--apparently it showed that GOP primary insurgent Marco Rubio had pulled Crist well under 50%, shrinking Crist's lead down to just a 44-30 advantage. According to Taegan Goddard, both campaigns have confirmed the results of the poll, but the Chamber of Commerce in the Sunshine State will not confirm.
VA-Gov: New Poll Gives McDonnell Large Lead
Late in the afternoon, a new poll was released by Christopher Newport University on behalf of WVEC television and the Virginian-Pilot. In it, Republican Bob McDonnell had a sizeable fourteen-point lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds (45-31). There is reason to have some skepticism about the poll--one out of four voters still being undecided at this late stage of the race strains credibility more than a little bit. Also, this is the same pollster that last year had McCain up nine in a late September poll, while virtually every other pollster had it tied or Obama staked to a narrow lead.
THE MONEY CHASE: Looking At the Senate
The folks over at National Journal's Hotline have provided a convenient one-stop shop for third quarter U.S. Senate finance reports. Past editions of the Wrap have focused on many of the races, but there are a few surprises nestled in here, mostly from self funders who threw major dollars into the campaign kitty. Among the seven-figure self-funders include Stephen Pagliuca, who has thrown in $1.8 million in the special election to be held in Massachusetts, Jacob Meister, who threw in $1.03 million in his bid for the Democratic nomination in Illinois, as well as Republican banker John Chachas, who threw in $1.06 million in order to make a run at Senator Harry Reid in Nevada. Of course, the queen of self-funders is wrestling magnate Linda McMahon, who has already tossed in three million dollars in her bid to escape from the large field of GOP contenders in Connecticut. Also on the campaign finance front, if you are interested in what the third quarter FEC reports looked like on the House side of the ledger, take a look at the laudable efforts by the guys over at Swing State Project to compile those into one easy-to-read table.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- While it is not surprising to see that Creigh Deeds has earned the endorsement of the Washington Post, it is nonetheless welcome news for the Democrat. He has already put up an ad trumpeting his endorsement, which will run in vote-rich Northern Virginia.
- Republican DeDe Scozzafava (NY-23) has not had many good days lately, and this one is not much better. She is getting drilled from the left by the SEIU and from the right by the ever-vigilant band of merrymen from the Club for Growth. Meanwhile, former GOP leader in the House Dick Armey is coming to town, to endorse Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.
- Here's betting that you didn't even know that the Whig Party was alive, well, and running a slate of Congressional candidates....
- Most absurd political headline of the week, if not the year: In OH-02, Republican "Mean Jean" Schmidt is getting primaried...to her right. No, really, she is.
- My count might be a little off, but former Minnesota state legislator Steve Kelley (Democrat) is either the 387th or the 388th person to announce a run for Governor of Minnesota next year
- As was initially hinted at last week, the great insurgent Democratic story of 2006 (Connecticut Dem Ned Lamont) has endorsed the man he feels will the great insurgent Democratic story of 2010: Joe Sestak.