GOP looks great in South, not so much in the rest of America

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Obama with a 57-40 approval rating, which almost mirrors our own Research 2000 55-37 number. Other polls are in similar favorability territory: Fox has it at 55-41, Gallup at 56-40, Quinnipiac at 53-47, NBC/WSJ at 56-33, and so on.

Here's what those other pollsters don't do, however -- break down their samples by geography. We do. Just from last week's edition:

Obama favorability

            Fav   Unfav

All          55    37

South        27    68
Rest of USA  67    24

NE           82     7
Midwest      62    30
West         59    32

Democratic Party favorability

            Fav   Unfav

All          41    51

South        21    72
NE           62    26
Midwest      44    48
West         44    50

Republican Party favorability

            Fav   Unfav

All          21    67

South        48    37
NE            6    87
Midwest      10    78
West         12    75

Republicans are already celebrating their massive 2010 victories, yet the data is brutal for them. Sure, Obama is down off his highs. But so what, if Republicans can't raise their own numbers?

Since January 8, Dems have gone from +8 net favorability to -10 -- an 18-point drop. Republicans have gone from -28 to -46 -- an 18 point drop. And really, I'd rather be the party at -10 than the one at -46. Yet it's the Republicans prematurely chortling about their big 2010 victories. Such a funny, funny group of people.

Of course, the mid-terms are going to be a base election, and the thinking is that Republicans are more energized. And in August, it sure seemed as if there was an intensity gap. But we've fought hard for the public option, and we've made headway. DC Dems would've tossed the public option aside in a heartbeat the way they did single payer had we not remained engaged. Now, thanks to the heroics of the House progressives who've stood firm in the face of intense pressure, we may get the kind of legislation that WILL excite and energize the base ... AND demoralize a teabagging movement that already seems to be losing steam. Indeed, their disruption schtick is already wearing thin with the media and public, and the've got nothing else to fill the void while losing the battle for public opinion on health care and Obama's presidency.

Here's one more set of geographic numbers for your persual:

Generic Congressional Ballot

            Dem   GOP

All          35    29

South        21    47
NE           51     8
Midwest      37    26
West         36    28

That six-point spread looks tight until you look at the geographic breakdowns. Look at what Republicans face in the Northeast, where they're trying to hold a Senate seat in pick up a couple of House ones. Dems also have a double-digit lead in the Midwest, a fierce battleground in 2008, and likely to repeat in 2010. The West is expected to be pretty quiet in 2010 (other than a couple of seats in California, ID-01 and maybe CO-04, NM-02, and MT-AL, I can't think of anything else that could be competitive out here), but even here Dems have an 8-point lead.

Republicans trail in virtually every issue in every credible poll, and that's with the South boosting their numbers. Throw geography into the equation, and you realize that yes, the GOP remains a Southern regional rump party, and while their prospects in their home region look pretty darn good, the same can't be said for the rest of America.