Various outlets, Bloomberg, CBS, Politico, are reporting that Reid will announce that the bill going to the floor will include a public option, which will likely be the opt out.
Thrush at Politico:
Reid, who spoke with virtually every member of his 60-member caucus this weekend, currently has between 56 and 57 votes for a proposal to create a national insurance plan but allow states to opt out of it, according to Democratic aides.
A public option with a "trigger" – supported by the White House and Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) – has between 58 and 59 backers. It could be floated as an alternative if the opt-out measure fails to obtain the 60 votes needed for cloture, sources said.
I don't know where Thrush is getting his vote count on triggers. As Sam Stein reports, Feingold has said no to them. Likewise, Sherrod Brown on CNN's State of the Union says "the trigger simply doesn’t work."
Roland Burris has already said he won't vote for a bill without a strong public option. Bernie Sanders certainly wouldn't support it. Greg Sargent mulls the question over at Plum Line, add Jay Rockefeller to the list of Senators who have "strongly voiced opposition to the trigger." So there's potentially five pretty solid votes against a triggered public option. Out of those 30 Senators who signed Brown's letter to Reid demanding a public option in the bill, there's likely to be another seven who will oppose triggers, making it's passage on the floor questionable.
At any rate, we'll know more about what the base bill is going to be in just a few minutes. You can watch it streamed live at CSPAN.
Update 1: Consensus reached in caucus, and with White House. The public option not a silver bullet, but key to providing competition. Best way to move forward is public option with opt-out. States can determine if it works for them. Will include in bill that will be submitted. Sending it to CBO.
Update 2: Strong public polling on public option makes it a good idea. The people want it.
States will have to 2014 to opt out.
Trigger not being scored by CBO.
Update 3:Q: why not triggers? A: Public option with opt the fairest solution.
What about Snowe? Will continue working with her.
Update 4: Wha??? Co-ops in the bill too? Why not, as long as there's also public option, if it makes Conrad happy.
Update 5: Always looking for Republicans. "It's hard to find them. We'll have to do this on our own." Only two moderates left to try to work with.
Update 6: Hasn't asked the WH to make any calls to get votes on this. "It hasn't been necessary."