The GOP brand

MSNBC's First Read:

the GOP’s brand is still a mess. According to the poll, just 25% have a positive opinion of the party (compared with 42% for the Dem Party), which ties the GOP's low-water mark in the survey and which is a worse score than it ever had during the Bush presidency. (Honest question: Can the party still blame Bush for their problems if their numbers have gotten lower since he left the scene?) In addition, only 23% approve of the way in which congressional Republicans have handled health care (compared with 43% for Obama). And looking ahead to the 2010 midterms, 46% prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 38% who want a GOP-controlled Congress. Last month, Dems held a 43%-40% advantage. Also, don’t miss this: Despite being out of office and (relatively) out of the news, Sarah Palin’s fav/unfav in our poll has dropped from 32%-43% in July to 27%-46% now. In fact, her numbers now are nearly identical to Nancy Pelosi’s (26%-42%). By the way, both Palin and Pelosi are more popular than the Republican Party.

Here's the full WSJ/NBC poll (PDF). Yes, the more the GOP ties into the Glenn Beck/teabagging crowd, the worse its numbers get. It's a point that we've been making repeatedly for some time, and it's nice to see this starting to bleed into old media. And while MSNBC still doesn't seem to get it, because their polling doesn't ask it, the GOP is in even worse shape because what scant favorability it enjoys comes mostly from their rump regional base in the South. From our own polling:

Republican Party favorability

            Fav   Unfav

All          21    67

South        48    37
NE            6    87
Midwest      10    78
West         12    75

That may be a good sign for the GOP's chances in Southern races, but Republicans outside of their stronghold have an uphill battle against their own party's brand. It's noxious, and it'll be difficult to make gains in 2010 if your efforts to drag down your opponent's numbers aren't matched with efforts to raise your own.

Since January 8, Dems have gone from +8 net favorability to -10 -- an 18-point drop. Republicans have gone from -28 to -46 -- an 18 point drop. And really, I'd rather be the party at -10 than the one at -46. Yet it's the Republicans prematurely chortling about their big 2010 victories. Such a funny, funny group of people.