House Leadership Deciding Now on Public Option

House Leadership met this afternoon to make the decision on the merged bill that will be the one they take to the floor. An announcement on their decision is scheduled for tomorrow morning at 10:00 eastern, but we'll probably be hearing leaks any time now.

What we'll probably hear is that the public option will be based on negotiated rates, rather than the robust public option based on Medicare rates plus 5% that the progressive caucus has been supporting. I say probably, because the whip count on this has been all over the place. Yesterday, Greg Sargent raised some panic over a whip list showing that the robust public option didn't have the votes. However, that list is now being disputed by its source, Majority Whip Clyburn [update, to be clear, Clyburn's staffer, Kristie Greco, didn't publicly dispute the numbers Greg reported].

The names on the list do raise questions. For example, Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) is listed as a no. But Altmire says he's told leadership that he's fine with a Medicare-based public option. He opposes the bill as it stands because of cost and because it includes an income surtax.

Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) is listed as "leaning no," even though she and Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) co-authored an op-ed earlier this month supporting the "robust" option. It was titled, "Why We're Breaking With the Blue Dogs on the Public Option."

It's been a completely moving target, which is why you haven't seen any whip lists for calls appearing in the blogosphere. It's just not been at all clear who we should be calling. Which is how it works when you get down to the last handful of people on a bill of this magnitude. Some are just constitutionally opposed to being nailed down on a position and some are trying for their own quid pro quo and want to keep a negotiating position open.

The numbers are so close on these votes, House leadership is in a bind of trying to figure out exactly what could pass. The numbers are so close that Chris asks a key question, whether the House can actually pass a bill if, as seems likely now, they go with negotiated rates.

This is going to anger quite a few members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Some of them might not vote for passage now, because they consider the public option too weak.

This matters because there are around 18-25 Democrats who will vote against the bill from the right, pretty much no matter what at this point. With every Republican likely to vote against the bill, this means that opposition from 15-22 Progressives would sink the entire bill.

Even though all eyes are on the Senate, the House is far from decided. Right now, it simply is not guaranteed that there will be enough votes to pass any health care bill through the House of Representatives, due to opposition from both flanks of the Democratic Party.

So who are Pelosi and Obama going to lean on to make this happen? The Blue Dogs who have been doing their utmost to water reform down as much as possible, or the Progressives who have been committed to make reform real?