Who'd of thunk? Maine, a state with more moose than Mormons, has
become the focus of the equal marriage rights battle and, by
extension, the battle for gay rights in the US. The campaign over
Question 1, a people's veto which would overturn Maine's enactment
last Spring of a law legalizing same-sex marriage, has given Maine its
15 weeks of fame.
And well-deserved of attention it is. A year ago, pro equal-rights
forces were caught off-guard in California by the ferocity and
direction of the attacks on equal marriage rights, and by the
enthusiasm bordering on fanaticism of their opponents.
Not so this time. This is a fight on neutral ground, on equal terms,
with both sides understanding the terrain, their opponents, and the
consequences of defeat.
This time, NO in Question 1 has a fully armed and operational battle station campaign organization, has been funded with a war chest that far exceeds per capita what was spent in California, is enabled by up to 8000 volunteers (one for every 75 likely Maine voters!)
and the latest in phone-banking technology, possesses advance knowledge of their
opponents tactics and advertising strategies, and is blessed with poignant
videos of their own. There can be no excuses made as in California for
failure.
Yet while polling is favorable, failure is still a possibility.
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While some polls show a decent lead for NO on Question 1, others show
the two sides neck and neck. And everyone is haunted by the spectre of California,
where the polls at the end bespoke of a tossup yet equal rights lost 52%-48%.
Besides the immediate effects on Maine's same-sex couples, what are
the stakes?
Success would mean that, for the first time ever in the history of
the world, equal marriage rights will have been instituted by a
vote of the people.
Success would announce that people's minds can be changed; that the
right kinds of advertisements, enough volunteers, and the right
organization can have a significant effect. And failure would suggest
that all the logic, campaigning and televised messaging in the world
isn't enough to change people's minds -- that the only real hope for
equal rights is to wait for the demographics of the United States to
shift -- for enough of the older generation to die off and today's
teenagers to become eligible to vote:
(Nate Silver suggests that support for gay marriage bans is decreasing
at a rate of above 2% per year.)
Success would create overwhelming momentum to attempt to override
California's Proposition 8 in 2010, providing that campaign with
enthusiastic volunteers and willing donors. Failure would likely mean
the collapse of those efforts until at least 2012, and possibly later.
Success would provide impetus to legislators in New York and New
Jersey to enact same-sex marriage legislation this fall, while failure
could provide just enough rationalization to allow those efforts to
languish for years.
Success would probably generate an energized effort to revoke the
military's Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT) policy by Congress. It would
put signifcant pressure on Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, Maine's
senators, to support that legislation as well as the repeal of the
Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA). And failure would likely have the
opposite effect. Snowe's and Collins' votes could prove critical in
obtaining the 60 votes in the Senate necessary to allow such bills to
come to a vote, and hence ultimately becoming law.
Equal rights for gays, lesbians, bisexuals and transgendered people has
been called the "the civil rights test of our generation."
Let's give it up for success.
And because I haven't seen them diaried previously, here are the
latest NO on Question 1 and YES on Question 1 ads to air in Maine.