Despite the fact that he conceded the election within hours of the polls closing on November 4th, and despite the fact that an analysis of the early absentees seems to indicate that there is no chance of a reversal of fortune, anointed GOP standard bearer Doug Hoffman has decided that he really didn't mean it when he conceded the election.
And who prodded that answer out of Hoffman? None other than Glenn Beck. When he wasn't fixated on the latest manufactured outrage on the right wing, that is:
BECK: Alright, so let me ask you two questions. Are you currently bowing to me at the waist? (LAUGHTER) Have you bowed, or will you bow, to anyone, at the waist? No? Okay, good. Second question for you, are you officially un-conceding at this moment?
HOFFMAN: Yes, if I knew this information at the election night, I would not have conceded.
BECK: So are you un-conceding?
HOFFMAN: If that’s possible, yes.
BECK: If the President can bow to an emperor and nobody says anything, yeah, I think you can unconcede.
Of course, Hoffman's rather unofficial retraction is meaningless. Owens was sworn in on November 7th. While the state had not made final certification in the race, this would not matter in this case because, as was stated at the time, the outcome of the race was not under contest. The same thing was done in California, where John Garamendi was actually sworn in before Owens, despite the fact that absentee ballots were still being tabulated in the 10th district. As in upstate New York, no one was challenging the outcome of the election.
This would seem, for logical reasons, to be a pretty tough thing to undo, no matter how much Glenn Beck is asking you to do it.
Furthermore, as Dave Weigel pointed out yesterday, the absentees still point to a Democratic victory, although with a slightly depleted margin.
As was pointed out here last week, two things are working against Hoffman: for one thing, the 10,000 ballot figure was almost certainly inflated. Indeed, it was: the total figure of returned absentee ballots appear to have been closer to 7500, according to the Weigel article. For another thing, the absentee ballots would have, in most cases, have been cast before the entire Scozzafava ordeal on the weekend before the election. Therefore, it was reasonable to conclude that Scozzafava would do considerably better than the 6% or so she notched on Election Day. And, indeed, she has done just that.
The first three counties to cast their absentees tell the story. In those counties, Scozzafava logged 20% of the absentee vote. This makes the math even tougher for Hoffman. Weigel applied the absentee ballot ratios from the first three counties to the remaining ballots (which, if anything, favors Hoffman, since he carried the three districts already tabulated). Owens would appear destined for a victory in the general vicinity of 2000 votes, which would be well beyond doubt.
Bill Owens will, absent a truly bizarre bit of electoral math, be the elected representative of the New York 23rd.
In spite of that fact, leave it to Doug Hoffman, with the assist of his "mentor" Glenn Beck, to add one little last bit of slap-your-forehead inanity to this bizarre special election.