Thursday has been a day of great intrigue in the Empire State as it relates to 2010 electoral politics. First, fairly early in the day, came this bit of breaking news, courtesy of Danny Hakim at the New York Times:
Former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has decided not to run for governor of New York next year after months of mulling a candidacy, according to people who have been told of the decision.
His decision is a blow to many Republican leaders, who had viewed Mr. Giuliani as the strongest potential candidate in a year in which voter anger and anti-Albany sentiment appeared to be swelling.
Later in the article, Hakim made clear that Giuliani was not closing the books completely on his involvement in the 2010 elections, but merely that he was closing the books on a gubernatorial bid.
It remains unclear whether the former mayor is considering any other political race in 2010. Some have urged him to take on the newly installed Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand, who has never run statewide and is still introducing herself to voters in parts of the state.
Which, according to the New York Daily News, is exactly what Giuliani has elected to do:
A source familiar with Giuliani's thinking said the failed presidential candidate has been telling people he plans to run against Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in 2010 to fill out the remaining two years of Hillary Clinton's term.
If elected, the source said, he could use that as a stepping stone to run for President in 2012 - rather than run for re-election to the Senate.
This makes sense for Giuliani on several levels: recent polling has shown Giuliani trailing likely Democratic candidate Andrew Cuomo, but leading Gillibrand in a Senate matchup.
Also, Giuliani's ego is certainly up to another national bid from President, and a winning Senate campaign is certainly a better launching pad for such ambitions than a losing gubernatorial bid.
Of course, should he run for the Senate, his victory is nowhere near assured. Despite being a nominal challenger, he enjoys, at present, a vast name recognition advantage over Gillibrand which would certainly dissipate over time.
Other sources, including CNN, are reporting that Giuliani is undecided about his 2010 plans. This flurry of revelations, however, make it likely we will be hearing something from him in the very near future.