Not a referendum on Obama

Ignore the exit poll topline numbers, since those are always bunk. However, the issue stuff is always much better, and while the numbers might shift some as the data is massaged to reflect the actual results, these numbers are well within the exit poll's margin of error:

• Per CNN, voters in Virginia did not see their state's gubernatorial race as an opportunity to voice opposition to Barack Obama. A 55 percent majority of voters said that the President was not a factor in their vote, and an additional 18 percent indicated their vote in Virginia was one of support in the President. Just 24 percent of voters indicated that their vote was one of opposition to President Obama. The numbers out of New Jersey are not terribly different, with 60 percent saying that Barack Obama played no role in their gubernatorial vote, 19 percent saying that their vote was one in support of the President, and 20 percent saying that their vote was in opposition to President Obama.

  Concludes CNN, this is not a referendum on Barack Obama.

• Chuck Todd reports that Barack Obama's approval rating among Virginia voters stands at 51 percent (just under the 52.6 percent of the vote he received in the state last November) and 57 percent in New Jersey (almost exactly the same as the 57.1 percent of the vote he earned in that state last November). In other words, exit polling indicates President Obama has not really lost supporters over the past year.

This is not a nationalized election. Democratic special election victories in early 2004 had no bearing on the beating we took that November, while a solid Republican showing in MA-05 in 2007 had no bearing on the trashing they took in November of 2008. These were not nationalized elections, and focused mostly on local issues.

Republicans will spin any gains as a repudiation of Obama, but they risk the same level of delusion that I suffered when I thought winning special elections in South Dakota and Kentucky meant anything more than "good Democratic candidates running on local issues beat shitty Republican ones."

In Virginia, McDonnell (R) was by far a better candidate than the Democrats' Deeds. And while NJ Gov. Jon Corzine continues to suffer from approval ratings in the 30s, the race is only competitive because the Republican has turned out to be a horrendous candidate. Incumbents with approval ratings in the 30s have no business winning reelection.

All that aside, the race I most care about tonight is Question 1. I'd immediately trade the rest away in a heartbeat to preserve equality in Maine.