Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 11/4/09

There are a small handful of items today to report, but (of course) most of today's political news is about Campaign 2009, and can be found all over the front page.

I guess now is as good a time as any to start looking at Campaign 2010.

Well, if you want to gloat for a second longer about the Democrats winning a House seat in territory a Democrat hasn't won since he won it by railing against Abraham Lincoln, then be my guest.

(Especially since the traditional media is all but ignoring it, since it doesn't fit into their tidy "Obama is doooooooomed" narrative)

On with the Wrap!

THE ROAD TO 2010: Cook Report Senses Mood...Shifts 7 Gov Races
Charlie Cook and his team seem to have learned a lesson from yesterday, and it isn't the "OMG!! Republicans Cool Again!! Democrats Dooooomed!!" tripe that much in the so-called liberal media trotted out. They surmised, correctly, that it is a really bad time to be the incumbent party in gubernatorial elections (a point made here on DK several months ago). To that end, they revised their 2010 race ratings for seven gubernatorial races, putting the incumbent party (even in open seat) in more peril. Four of the seats were Republican, three were Democratic.

KY-Sen: Could NRSC Golden Boy Grayson Be Getting Scozzafava'd?
A fascinating new poll was released on Election Day by the team at SurveyUSA (who, by the way, had an excellent 2009 polling cycle). They poll Kentucky, and they find Rand Paul out in front of GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson by three points in a GOP primary election. They also find, as they have before, Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo with a lead over Attorney General Jack Conway in the Democratic Primary, a fact confirmed by Conway's own internal polling. The odd thing: Paul and Mongiardo are weaker in the general election trial heats than the men they vanquish in the primary polling. The only Democratic path to a pickup there, at present, would be in a battle between Jack Conway and Rand Paul (Conway leads by 5 in such a matchup).

PA-Gov: Corbett About To Get Scozzafava'd?
Apparently concluding that both presumptive GOP primary frontrunner Tom Corbett and moderate Congressman Jim Gerlach are just not authentically conservative enough, right wing state legislator Sam Rohrer is looking to add his voice to the Republican gubernatorial primary in Pennsylvania. Rohrer has a reputation in Harrisburg for being staunchly conservative. The Democratic primary is already a multi-candidate mess, but Corbett looked like he might benefit from an easily dispatched challenge to his left from Gerlach, which would keep him clean for the general without having to burnish his right-wing bonafides. A challenge like Rohrer's, even if he is a little known state representative, could prove troubling for the frontrunner.

MA-Sen: Front-Runner's Privilege
In the Democratic primary for Ted Kennedy's open seat, polling has put Attorney General Martha Coakley clearly in the lead. That has enabled her to wait until this week to begin running ads on television, whereas rivals Mike Capuano and Steve Pagliuca have been advertising for some time now. - Laura Clawson

NH-02: Swetting It?
When Paul Hodes announced he was running for the open Senate seat in New Hampshire, it was widely assumed that Katrina Swett and her $900,000 cash on hand would get into the race to replace him. Heck, sources said she would in February. Then come June, she was seriously considering it. Meanwhile, Ann McLane Kuster has had time to build a campaign, amass $260k cash on hand herself, and get the EMILY's List endorsement. Now Swett is once again making noises like she's getting in, claiming that internal polling gives her a 20 point lead. If Swett runs, she'll position herself clearly to the right of Kuster, and can be expected to garner at least tacit support from some within the state's Democratic party establishment. Her fundraising prospects are dimmer than they were in her previous runs for office, though, given the death of her father, Tom Lantos. - Laura Clawson

IN OTHER NEWS....

• In one little bit of 2009 housekeeping, apparently Republican Susan Hutchison has formally conceded to Democrat Dow Constantine in the King County Executive's race, a race that drew a bit of attention here at Daily Kos.
• Interesting local flavor from Colorado: will the Hoffman/Scozzafava fiasco in New York mean that the NRSC will no longer back Jane Norton's candidacy in Colorado. It sure looks like it.
• One of the more amazing stories you'll read out of the 2009 Election Night. Guess every vote does count.
• Right-winger Jim DeMint wants to get all "Scozzafavy" in California, backing the insurgent Republican over the establishment candidate in the battle to face U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer.