Weekly Tracking Poll: The Predictable Election Bounce
by Steve Singiser
Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 10:50:03 AM PST
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/2/2009-11/5/2009. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NET CHANGE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PRESIDENT OBAMA | 55 (56) | 38 (36) | -3 |
| PELOSI: | 38 (39) | 53 (53) | -1 |
| REID: | 33 (33) | 56 (55) | -1 |
| McCONNELL: | 16 (15) | 66 (67) | +2 |
| BOEHNER: | 15 (13) | 63 (64) | +3 |
| CONGRESSIONAL DEMS: | 40 (41) | 53 (52) | -2 |
| CONGRESSIONAL GOPS: | 15 (14) | 70 (71) | +2 |
| DEMOCRATIC PARTY: | 42 (43) | 50 (49) | -2 |
| REPUBLICAN PARTY: | 23 (21) | 66 (68) | +4 |
Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.
The three week winning streak for Democrats in the Daily Kos State of the Nation tracking poll came to an abrupt end during election week, as the diverging poll numbers (Democratic net favorability increasing, GOP net favorability decreasing) reversed this week.
Across the board, Democrats saw their numbers take a 1-3 point hit on net favorability. The GOP, meanwhile, got a 2-4 point bump in their numbers, softening (though not wiping away) the losses they had suffered over the previous three weeks.
This is not totally unexpected, of course. The GOP has just been the beneficiaries of three days of fawning press coverage, and the traditional media has also taken great care to marry Tuesday's gubernatorial results in Virginia and New Jersey to President Obama and the national Democratic Party, all polling evidence to the contrary (more on this later, but some of the analysis of the 2009 elections has been exceptionally poor, to the point that one wonders if the "serious journalists" of America are merely lazy, or purposefully disingenuous).
Does this have real-world implications for 2010? Possibly, but it is not terribly likely. If these numbers continue to diverge through the end of the year, a real reconsideration of the two parties might be underfoot. If it fades after a week or two, then the bounce was just that--a transient bump in the poll numbers that is here today and gone tomorrow.
On thing that could eventually complicate matters for the Democrats is the fact that voter optimism about the way things are going in America has hit a plateau. That indicator has held steady in the low-40s right track/mid-50s wrong track since early in the summer. After a swift surge of optimism immediately following the Presidential inauguration, those numbers sagged a bit, and then flatlined.
The bounce this week did provide the GOP with one notable achievement. For the first time in six months, they actually crack the 30% threshold on our variation of the generic ballot test. They still trail the Democrats on this question by a five point margin (35-30), but that is the closest they have been since they had their late summer surge in the polls at the tail end of August and the first week of September.
On that generic ballot test it is worth noting that Democrats have more undecided votes to claim than their Republican opponents. 90% of Republicans are already on board with GOP candidates in 2010, while only 80% of Democrats are willing to say the same. That might speak to the mantra here at DK this week about the path to victory for the Democratic Party in 2010 going through its base.
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