It may not be the best of times, but it is not the worst of times either.
Things are happening all over on the equal marriage rights front, even if
it appears that doom and gloom are the emotions of the moment.
In the category of obscure, but really good news
Portugal will be legalizing same-sex marriage soon!
Sources close to Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates,
who is forming a new government following September elections, said
Oct. 23 that legalizing same-sex marriage will be one of the new
team's first actions.
In the category of encouraging, but not quite good enough news:
Washington State's Referendum 71, 'everything but marriage', has increased its
lead to 53% - 47%. Compilation of results on election night only showed it leading by 51.5% - 49.5%, but the margin has been increasing slowly but steadily as more ballots are being received and counted (Washington has by-mail only voting, and ballots only need to be postmarked on election day, they don't need to have arrived by then).
It is likely that by the time all the ballots are counted, Washington residents will have passed this measure by as large or larger a margin than Maine residents rejected Question 1. Is this because Washington is a more liberal state? Or because Maine has a higher percentage of Catholics than Washington? Or because the issue was not the word
'marriage' in Washington? I'll leave that to the experts, who will likely debate ad nas um. Now we can look forward (?) in a couple of years to a huge battle over a law to substitute a real marriage contract for 'everything but marriage' civil unions.
In the category of "Be careful what you ask for" warnings we have:
A new California poll showing
A small majority of California voters supports the right of same-sex
couples to marry, but by a much larger margin, voters oppose efforts
to place the issue back on the ballot next year...
Overall, 51 percent of California voters favored marriage rights for
gay couples, and 43 percent were opposed.
Strikingly, however, almost three in five Californians did not want to
revisit the issue in 2010, just one election cycle after it last hit
the ballot.
Based on outcomes vs. polling in California and Maine, 51-43 isn't
good enough to insure victory, especially if the average Californian
doesn't want to deal with the issue again so soon.
In the category of "What do we have to lose?" we have:
In New York State, Governor Patterson is asking for a vote in the State Senate
on equal marriage rights (the Assembly has already passed the bill).
"It is an issue that in many ways speaks to the very foundation of our
democracy," Paterson said of gay marriage. "I would like it addressed
as immediately as possible, because justice delayed is justice denied.
I am asking the members of the New York state Senate on both sides of
the aisles to take up and pass the marriage equality legislation this
week."
If the Senate does not vote, equal marriage rights will not pass, and
we won't know who is against us. Whereas If the Senate votes and it
fails, we will know exactly who is against us and can prepare
challenges to their re-election. And if the Senate does vote, and it
passes, it will be an amazing victory -- one of the largest States in
the Union will be committed to equal rights.
Why failure would be disappointing, I can see little real downside to
a vote even if we are not assured of victory.
In the category of "No one knows what is going on" we have:
The New Jersey legislature will or will not vote on equal marriage rights.
"New Jersey is at the very top of our list, and it's going to happen
in the next few weeks if it happens at all," said Maggie Gallagher,
the president of the National Organization for Marriage, which opposes
same-sex marriages.
The campaign is in full swing, with ads on both sides being aired. Here's
a new one from the good guys:
If they don't get a bill to the Governor's desk before Corzine leaves
office in January, there will be no hope of enacting legislation for
four years, since the new Governor, Christie, said he will veto any
equal marriage rights bill.
And finally, the winning category is "Block by Block, Calloused District by
Calloused District", the most promising news of all:
Washington DC is proceeding apace to pass equal marriage rights
legislation. The bill is scheduled to be marked up and moved out of committee tomorrow. A final vote should come before the end of the year!
At that point Congress would have 30 days to nullify the law, but no
one anticipates them being able to do so.