Amanda is right.
The people who are demoralized so much that they check out are probably not the same people writing or reading political blogs. They’re probably the least political of the bunch, the people who get no pleasure from the game and only want results. That’s why they’re the most likely to focus their ire on the nebulous “Democrats"---the more in the know you are, the more likely you are to realize that more Democrats are on the side of right than not on this issue, and that it’s a coalition of conservative Democrats and Republicans that are the main obstacle. It’s the people least interested in the details who are likely to say, “No matter who I vote for, my life doesn’t get any better, so why bother?” We’ve known all along that the greatest danger for Democrats is that they pass a bill so weak that the public at large doesn’t appreciate it. It’s when the public appreciates legislation that Democrats can really shine, because they can work to protect popular legislation against Republicans. But in order to do that, they have to pass it.
Pointing this out feels like a threat, and that seems mean, especially when a lot of Democrats are trying really hard to do the right thing. But it’s not a threat. It’s just the ugly truth, and it’s better to have it out on the table than to delude ourselves about it. Few people can make good decisions with less information, and I really don’t think that liberal Democrats, who have a tendency to want to see the best in people and be conciliatory much of the time, are really working in their or our best interests if they don’t understand how much the Democratic majority hangs in the balance if they fail.
In our weekly poll last week, 80 percent of Republicans are definitely or probably going to vote. For Democrats, it was just 55 percent. Those aren't bloggers or political junkies, it's rank and file Democrats, and they're seeing no reason to turn out and vote. Those voters were promised some pretty basic items, and they delivered big for the Democratic Party -- super majorities and a White House landslide. Democrats pissed away their mandate with a series of corporate bailouts, but nothing for main street. The signature Democratic policy item -- health care -- has been hijacked by Lieberman, Lincoln, Baucus, Snowe, and Ben Nelson, to the detriment of pretty much everyone else, all with the full support of a "bipartisan" obsessed White House.
I'm going to vote, and you guys are too. We're not the problem. Heck, in the generic congressional ballot, Democrats still have a decent lead, 37-33. The problem are the marginally engaged Democrats, and without them, we're going to get creamed next year. According to that latest poll, only 39 percent of 18-29 year olds will definitely or probably vote. 39 percent. And why should they? They're likely to get stuck with an expensive mandate to reward insurance companies by purchasing their overpriced, under-delivering products. African Americans are only 32 percent definitely or probably likely to turn out, and 42 percent for Latinos. While 61 percent of men -- who skew heavily Republican -- are definitely or probably going to turn out, that number is just 51 percent for women -- who skew heavily Democratic.
See the point? No one is arguing that Democrats shouldn't turn out. We're terrified that they won't. And whether they vote or not is dependent on what Democrats can deliver in DC. Right now, it's not much of anything, and if this keeps up, Democrats are in deep shit.