On balance, a very quiet day out on the campaign trail. Two polls (besides our own, of course), and only a smattering of major campaign news.
DE-Sen: PPP Has Race Close, But With Castle in the Lead
The good news: both of the pollsters who have done multiple polls in the high-profile Delaware Senate race have seen movement in the Democratic direction. The bad news: while Susquehanna showed major movement (from Castle +21 in the Spring to Biden +5 last week), the team over at PPP shows movement that is, at best, incremental. After leading the Democratic state Attorney General by eight points in March, PPP has longtime GOP Congressman Mike Castle leading Beau Biden by six points (45-39). What is keeping Castle afloat, incredibly, is a fairly sizeable reservoir of support for Castle among Democrats. Particularly hard to fathom after a 2009 where Castle marched in lockstep with Eric Cantor and the hard-right leadership of the GOP.
AR-Sen: Rasmussen Gets Dramatically Different Take on Lincoln
This will register as a surprise to absolutely no one, but Rasmussen also polled the Natural State this week (yes, that is one of its nicknames), and they get a drastically different conclusion in the race. They have Lincoln losing to any of the four GOP contenders, by margins ranging from 3-7 points. Rasmussen did not poll a potential primary challenge from popular state Lt. Governor Bill Halter. Speaking of Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Tom Jensen over at PPP writes an interesting analysis of her dilemma, as she heads into a tumultuous 2010 campaign year.
NY-01: When A Twenty Point Lead Means...Vulnerability?
A new internal poll is making the rounds in New York's Long Island-based 1st Congressional District. Despite the relative one-sidedness of the poll, it is being limned by the GOP as good news for their challenger. The poll, conducted by McLaughlin and Associates on behalf of GOP challenger Randy Altschuler, shows Tim Bishop leading Altschuler by twenty points (46-26). The GOP is crowing about the poll, pointing out that Altschuler is barely known and that Bishop is below the 50% threshold for incumbent vulnerability. Furthermore, the poll issued a generic ballot question and found the generic GOP candidate leading the generic Dem by four points (38-34).
IN OTHER NEWS....
- IN-Sen: An interesting leading headline on the campaign trail today, as former southern Indiana Republican Congressman John Hostettler has announced that he will challenge Democratic incumbent Senator Evan Bayh in 2010. This is being viewed as a sign of supreme confidence on behalf of Republicans, who are targeting even incumbents who are preceived as invulnerable, like Bayh. They might be overstating the appeal of Hostettler, who never won comfortably in a turbulent dozen year tenure in the House before being destroyed in 2006 by Brad Ellsworth in an election where Hostettler failed to crack 40% of the vote. One of Hostettler's biggest liabilities as a statewide candidate, and one that confounded the NRCC and his allies in the House, was a chronic inability to raise campaign cash, compounded by a fairly principled refusal to accept PAC money. Bayh is sitting on a massive campaign warchest, and Hostettler's entry seems unlikely to move the needle on his likelihood of earning re-election.
- FL-Sen: In politics, they say all media attention is good media attention. Here is one story that might disprove that maxim. Florida's GOP Governor (and Senate aspirant) Charlie Crist lent his voice to a recorded message giving out the number for Florida KidCare. Unfortunately, some of the digits got transposed, and the end result was the Governor of Florida encouraging prospective KidCare applicants to call up a service line which would introduce the callers to "hot and horny girls."
- OR-Gov: While most political observers make Democrats the betting favorite to hold onto the Governor's mansion in Oregon (currently occupied by Ted Kulongoski), it is worth noting that the leading fundraiser in the race so far, is, indeed, a Republican. Former NBA baller Chris Dudley, despite only considering the race over the past several weeks, has already raised $340,000 for the effort, which even beats former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber, who leads the rest of the field at $280,000. One caveat to the impressive haul--more than half of it can be attributed to just three donors, including a six-figure donation from Dudley's former agent.
- MN-06: It now appears very likely that it will ten months until we know the name of the Democrat who will be challenging Michele Bachmann in central Minnesota's 6th district. Yesterday, former Independence Party statewide nominee Maureen Reed announced that she would not abide by the results of the state party convention, which presumably would have favored Democratic State Senator Tarryl Clark. Reed has raised impressive cash, but Clark would have a convention edge given that Reed ran as a candidate outside of the Democratic Party as recently as 2006.
- IL-10: Voters in the district being abandoned by Republican Mark Kirk will have an interesting contrast in their Democratic candidates, if a joint forum involving the two leading candidates today is any indication. While both candidates (2006/08 Nominee Dan Seals and state legislator Julie Hamos) agreed on both favoring the public option and transporting Guantanamo Bay detainees to Illinois. But they disagreed on the extension of the Bush tax cuts (Seals supports the extension, Hamos is less enthusiastic) and the expansion of the troop commitment in Afghanistan (Hamos supports it, Seals does not).
- PA-Gov: Two interesting details out of the Keystone State, as we head into the weekend. Democratic candidate (and Allegheny County Executive) Dan Onorato knows how to generate interest. His campaign is teasing a major endorsement this weekend, but is apparently tight-lipped about the endorser. Shrewdly, it is in Philadelphia, as Onorato tries to shore up his support on the opposite side of the state. Meanwhile, one Pennsylvania newspaper, Lancaster's Intelligencer Journal, has added to what is apparently a growing chorus of newspapers that think Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett should either resign as A.G., or give up the gubernatorial race. They cited another recent election (and a key Corbett rival) to make the point:
Republican Congressman Jim Gerlach, who is challenging Corbett for the gubernatorial nomination, has said it was wrong for Corbett to have accepted contributions from those he has since charged. He has said that Corbett should step down as attorney general if he intends to continue to run for governor.
Citing the example of Virginia Governor-elect Bob O'Donnell, who stepped down from his post to run for governor this year, Gerlach has said Corbett should do the same.
We agree.
Overseeing the Bonusgate prosecution requires a full-time attorney general. Running for governor is a full-time job.
Corbett should make a choice.