Your Abbreviated Pundit Round-up

Sunday opinions, analysis, and wonkery.

WaPo:

But recent debate -- some scientists say the Earth hasn't warmed as predicted over the past 10 years -- show that climate science is still science, with researchers drawing different lessons from the same data. The problem is that it plays out before an audience that won't wait for certainty.

Politicians say, " 'We need to reduce the uncertainty,' and I think that's contributed to a certain mind-set where [climate scientists] try to reduce the uncertainty" when they talk about their research, said Judith Curry, chair of the school of Earth and atmospheric sciences at Georgia Tech. "I'm a little bit worried about that political pressure," she said.

But the climate establishment -- including the U.S. government's top scientists on the subject -- say that nothing in the e-mails disproves their bedrock ideas. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are still gathering in the atmosphere and trapping more of the sun's heat, and the consequences of that will still be dire in the long run, they say.

John Fund: Democratic Congressman are not obsessed with health care reform because they think it's a good idea. Democratic Congressman are obsessed with health care reform because you think it's a good idea.

Frank Rich:

Obama’s speech, for all its thoughtfulness and sporadic eloquence, was a failure at its central mission. On its own terms, as both policy and rhetoric, it didn’t make the case for escalating our involvement in Afghanistan. It’s doubtful that the president’s words moved the needle of public opinion wildly in any direction for a country that has tuned out Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq alike while panicking about where the next job is coming from.

Nicholas Kristof:

The battle over health care focuses on access to insurance, or tempests like the one that erupted over new mammogram guidelines.

But what about broader public health challenges? What if breast cancer in the United States has less to do with insurance or mammograms and more to do with contaminants in our water or air -- or in certain plastic containers in our kitchens? What if the surge in asthma and childhood leukemia reflect, in part, the poisons we impose upon ourselves?

Thomas Friedman:

President Obama certainly showed leadership mettle in going against his own party’s base and ordering a troop surge into Afghanistan. He is going to have to be even more tough-minded, though, to make sure his policy is properly executed.

And since every President wakes up wanting and needing my advice on how to execute policy, let me give it to him.

David Broder:

The rejection of Obama's argument by the leading candidate in an overwhelmingly Democratic state shows how much the president has failed to convince his fellow partisans that he is right about the biggest national security policy decision of his tenure.

It is symptomatic of a bigger problem; Coakley and her rivals are emblematic of widespread Democratic dissent on Afghanistan.

Reminder to Broder (CNN 12/2-3/09 via Polling Report):
Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war in Afghanistan?"

Favor 46
Oppose  51
Unsure 2

Regardless of how you feel about the war in general, do you favor or oppose President Obama's plan to send about 30,000 more U.S. troops to Afghanistan in an attempt to stabilize the situation there?

Favor 62
Oppose  36

There are three very public groups of people that cannot deal with uncertainty: politicians (who must show they are in charge - see the Senate), pundits who exploit uncertainty (see John Fund), and pundits who must be certain because they give advice for a living (see Friedman) or see their job as setting narrative (see Broder.) They are responsible more than anyone for distorting discussion and debate, and are always looking for the "Democrats are not republicans in disarray" narrative. In the meantime, passions on Afghanistan are nowhere near what they were on Iraq or are on health reform and domestic issues.

UPDATE: Since the MoDo column is being discussed here's the link to the "you didn't invite me" bitterness.