NY-Gov, NY-Sen: Paterson Screwed, Gillibrand Not So Screwed

The competent-governance lesson for today: when faced with a major political decision such as making an appointment to the United States Senate, don't handle it in such a way that the process winds up pissing everybody off.

We can now see our way clear to a 2011 when Kirsten Gillibrand is still in office, and David Paterson is not, which would be a nakedly clear reminder that political success is not always about what you do, but how you do it.

Quinnipiac. 2/10-15. Registered voters. MoE 4.6% for Democratic primary, 3% for general-election matchups.

Democratic Primary

Andrew Cuomo (D) 55
David Paterson (D) 23

General Election

David Paterson (D) 43
Rudy Giuliani (R) 43

Andrew Cuomo (D) 51
Rudy Giuliani (R) 37

This does not smell like victory for Governor Paterson.

Cuomo is blowing the incumbent out of the water in the primary, sporting a 30-point lead and cruising at 55%. Little Andy is also doing just fine in a hypothetical matchup with the Ford Pinto of Republican presidential candidates, skating over the magic 50% line and with a double-digit lead over Mayor Sex On The City.

As for Paterson? When a state which gave Obama 63% of the vote likes the walking, sometimes talking mountain of fail that is Rudy Giuliani as much as they like you, it might be time to start exploring other career opportunities.

It appears that folks are actually angrier at how Paterson handled the appointment, than at the appointment of Kirsten Gillibrand herself:

Voters disapprove 52 - 35 percent of the way Paterson handled the appointment of a U.S. Senator to fill Hillary Clinton's seat. Disapproval is similar across the political spectrum.

...

While voters are not happy with the process, they do approve 45 - 33 percent, with 22 percent undecided, of Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand as U.S. Senator. Even Republicans approve 42 - 33 percent.

Gillibrand's numbers are favorable, though most don't know her. She gets job approval numbers of 28/10, and favorability of 24/9 favorable/unfavorable.

As for her electoral prospects:

Democratic Primary

Carolyn McCarthy (D) 34
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 24

General Election

Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 42
Peter King (R) 26

Most voters don't know Gillibrand especially well, but while she starts in the hole against McCarthy, she's in much better shape than Paterson is in his prospective primary. McCarthy is only at 34% and only leads by 10 points. Gillibrand is considered a superior fundraiser and campaigner, so there's plenty of opportunity for her to climb against McCarthy.

Against Republican Peter King, Gillibrand sports a 16-point lead, which is 16 points wider than Paterson's own margin in his general-election matchup.

Gillibrand has work to do to increase her familiarity to New York voters, but Paterson has a bigger problem; voters know him, and they want somebody else.