Presidential Performance in Congressional District: Where Democrats Lost Ground, And Why

Bumped. --mcjoan

Swing State Project is nearly finished with a remarkable crowdsourcing project in which the site's users have obtained precinct-level data for the 2008 Presidential election, and used it to calculate the performance of President Obama and Senator McCain in each Congressional district.

The project is nearly complete, so it gives us an opportunity to analyze the relative performance of Obama and McCain with previous party nominees John Kerry, Al Gore and George W. Bush.

As you might expect, Obama performed better than Kerry and Gore in almost every district, often significantly better. Given that he ran five points better than Kerry and Gore nationwide, picking up 53% of the popular vote, this should be little surprise.

Obama made history in some of these districts. He is the first Democrat in memory to win the Orange County-based CA-48, something not even Dianne Feinstein (the most successful California Democrat at the polls in recent years) has been able to do.

There are a few districts, however, in which Obama underperformed Kerry. Today, let's look at these districts, and explore possible reasons why this was the case, and what that means for Democrats going forward. The party, and President Obama, still seem to have a strong electoral future in many of these areas, and virtually no future in others.

As you might expect, the majority of districts where Kerry ran ahead of Obama are in rural, predominantly white areas of Appalachia and the South, along with Kerry's home state of Massachusetts and John McCain's home state of Arizona. There's one interesting exception, in New York City of all places.

Notably, there are four Southern states in which Obama beat Kerry in all Congressional districts. In Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia - the three Southern states which received the most attention from the Obama campaign - Obama lost no ground on Kerry in any district, not even the poorer, rural, predominantly white districts.

It seems there's quite a lot to be said for campaigning around the country; you're likely to do substantially better even in areas, and among demographics, that generally don't like you.

Obama also outperformed Kerry in every Mississippi district, perhaps due to the fact that there are so many blacks in Mississippi, a greater percentage than in any other state, that they carried Obama in each of the districts.

Without further ado, let's go district-by-district and survey the less exciting 2008 results.

ALABAMA

AL-05 Griffith (D): Kerry 39%, Obama 38%

We don't yet have numbers for a few Alabama districts, but it's a good bet that Obama outperformed Kerry in AL-03 (Mike Rogers).

So far, the only Alabama district in which Obama underperformed Kerry is AL-05, but despite his performance, Democrat Parker Griffith managed to keep a Democratic open seat.

AL-05 isn't a Democratic district, and it's going to be tough for Griffith to keep that seat. Still, it's not necessarily trending away from the party any more than other rural Southern white districts are.

ARKANSAS

AR-01 Berry (D): Kerry 47%, Obama 38%
AR-02 Snyder (D): Kerry 48%, Obama 44%
AR-03 Boozman (R): Kerry 36%, Obama 34%
AR-04 Ross (D): Kerry 48%, Obama 39%

In terms of trends, Arkansas was Obama's worst state, by Superman-esque leaps and bounds. The president underperformed John Kerry by six points statewide, and underperformed in every congressional district.

The drops seen in Marion Berry's district, and Mike Ross' district, were the largest anywhere in the country, and from a position of relative strength. Generally speaking, we expect to win districts where Kerry got 47-48%. Those are definitionally swing districts, no more divided under normal circumstances than the nation itself.

Last year, however, Obama finished under 40% in both of them.

Obama's performance in Arkansas can probably be chalked up to a number of factors - possible racial prejudice, lingering resentment from the primaries (when Obama faced off against former Arkansawyer Hillary Clinton), and the lack of a substantial statewide campaign in the state. Obama did not campaign there, and Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor was unopposed in his bid for reelection.

Obama's performance in Arkansas was so bad, even compared to other demographically and culturally similar states (like West Virginia or Tennessee), that it's difficult to chalk it up to any one factor, including racism. You don't see this kind of drop anywhere else, not even in the South. Granted, other Southern states showed modest gains for Obama because of large black populations...but Arkansas' black population isn't exactly negligible, at 16%.

It's possible that the state is just trending away from Democrats, but I believe that 2010 will be a perfectly decent year in the state (with Governor Mike Beebe and Senator Blanche Lincoln up for reeelection).

Given the strength Democrats have shown in the state at other levels, however, they should feel fairly comfortable in Arkansas going forward. The state did not like Obama, but they gave decent support to Kerry in 2004, all things considered. Furthermore, all statewide elected officials (including the Governor and both Senators) are Democrats, as are three of the four Representatives. The party also enjoys substantial majorities in the state House and Senate to boot. They like Democrats fairly well in Arkansas, just not the current President.

If the universe doesn't cave in upon itself during Obama's first term, he ought to bounce back nicely within the state. He may not win Arkansas in 2012, but he should be back within single digits.

ARIZONA

AZ-01 Kirkpatrick (D): Kerry 45%, Obama 44%
AZ-02 Franks (R): Kerry 38%, Obama 38%

This is McCain's home state, so Obama's performance here doesn't mean a hell of a lot. He probably would have won the state if he were facing another Republican.

FLORIDA

FL-02 Boyd (D): Kerry 46%, Obama 45%
FL-05 Brown-Waite (R): Gore 46%, Kerry 41%, Obama 43%
FL-19 Wexler (D): Kerry 66%, Obama 65%
FL-20 Wasserman Schultz (D): Kerry 64%, Obama 63%
FL-22 Klein (D): Gore 52%, Kerry 52%, Obama 52%

Brown-Waite's district was included even though Obama outperformed Kerry, simply because Gore's numbers in the district, at 46%, were noteworthy. It will be interesting to see how Democrats perform there going forward, as Gore did pretty well eight years ago.

Boyd's district has generally been a swingish district; Gore got 47% in FL-02, Kerry 46%. The district includes the city of Tallahassee, as well as a good chunk of the highly conservative Florida Panhandle, and it borders Alabama and Georgia.

The numbers suggest that the district is slowly trending away from the Democrats, and this is probably true. Given the recent voting history, a white Democrat probably could have won FL-02 in 2008.

The numbers for the three Miami Democrats - Wexler, Klein and Wasserman Schultz - are pretty much where they were in 2004 and 2000. There was no major gain for Obama among these voters, which is interesting, but obviously two of the districts are still solidly Democratic and Klein's continues to lean Democratic.

Klein's district has given the same numbers to Gore, Kerry and Obama, the only district in the country to do so.

KENTUCKY

KY-05 Rogers (R): Kerry 39%, Obama 31%

This was the only district in Kentucky to show a drop for Obama, but it was one hell of a big drop - at eight points, one of the very largest in the country.

Kentucky was one of five states, along with Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, and initially Louisiana, which was part of the Clinton electoral strategy but not ultimately part of the Obama strategy. All these states were among the (very few) disappointments for Obama, whether due to racial apprehension, the decision not to campaign there, or other factors.

But while Obama gained on Kerry almost everywhere in Kentucky, he cratered in the Appalachian KY-05, which was actually Kerry's third-best district (of six) in the state. It is now the worst-performing Kentucky district at the Presidential level.

This district wouldn't appear to be a good bet for Democrats in the future.

LOUISIANA

LA-01 Scalise (R): Kerry 28%, Obama 26%
LA-02 Cao (R): Kerry 75%, Obama 74%
LA-03 Melancon (D): Kerry 41%, Obama 37%
LA-04 Fleming (R): Kerry 40%, Obama 40%
LA-05 Alexander (R): Kerry 37%, Obama 37%
LA-07 Boustany (R): Kerry 39%, Obama 35%

Democratic performance in every district in Louisiana dropped from Clinton in 1996 to Gore in 2000, and subsequently from Gore to Kerry. Obama managed to improve on Kerry in only one, LA-06.

That's a very unsettling trend for what used to be one of the most Democratic states in the South, a state Bill Clinton won twice.

In LA-02 (New Orleans), there's probably something of a Katrina and Rita effect. Elsewhere, the state is just trending hard away from national Democrats.

A conservative-to-moderate Democrat can still run well in Louisiana, especially if they happen to be a Cajun (see Mary Landrieu, Mitch Landrieu, Charlie Melancon and Don Cazayoux). We'll see how Democrats who don't fit this profile perform in the state going forward. It was tough sailing for Obama in 2008, but perhaps four years of a successful administration will help him, and other Democrats, in 2012.

Massachusetts

MA-04 Frank (D): Kerry 65%, Obama 64%
MA-09 Lynch (D): Kerry 63%, Obama 60%
MA-10 Delahunt (D): Kerry 56%, Obama 55%

MA-02 Neal (D): Gore 58%, Obama 59%
MA-03 McGovern (D): Gore 59%, Obama 59%
MA-05 Tsongas (D): Gore 57%, Obama 59%
MA-06 Tierney (D): Gore 58%, Obama 59%
MA-07 Markey (D): Gore 64%, Obama 65%

Here's the most fascinating thing about Massachusetts: Gore's margin over Bush was bigger than Obama's margin over McCain in every district but two, John Olver's (MA-01) and Mike Capuano's (MA-08).

Then again, Gore's numbers beat or matched Kerry's in all eight of those districts, as well - and Massachusetts is Kerry's home state!

It's difficult to say why this is, but as a Massachusetts native (and expat), here are a few theories:

1. The number of persuadable Bush voters is very low in Massachusetts. It's very possible that everyone who could be persuaded to vote Democratic had already been sold on the party by 2000, and that the small Republican bloc left at that point comprises the Republican base.

2. Bush in 2000 was an exceptionally weak candidate in MA - he was widely seen in the state as incurious, less experienced, less intelligent and less secular than his Democratic counterpart (shocking!), in a state where those things count for something.

In 2004 he was the wartime incumbent, and as for 2008, McCain may just be a far more appealing candidate to Massachusetts voters than the 2000 edition of Bush. If someone put a gun to my head and made me choose, I would certainly pick McCain to be president before Bush.

3. There was perhaps a Deval Patrick effect. For better or worse, Obama was somewhat identified within the state with Governor Deval Patrick, a strong Obama supporter with a somewhat similar profile (fairly young, African-American, highly intelligent, relatively limited experience in government prior to taking office).

Patrick has been considered a disappointent as Massachusetts Governor, and that may have damped Obama's numbers a bit.

Overall, however, Massachusetts is obviously as Democratic as they come, and Obama and Kerry losing a couple points off of Gore's high-water mark in 2000 doesn't mean much.

NEW YORK

NY-09 Weiner (D): Gore 67%, Kerry 56%, Obama 55%

This district is one of the most Caucasian districts in that section of New York City (straddling Brooklyn and Queens).

Democratic numbers here have dropped quite a lot since the 2000 high-water mark. At one point, it was possible to chalk that up to a "9/11 effect", but that would not explain why Obama's numbers didn't at least partially bounce back from 2004 levels (as happened in NY-13, Mike McMahon's district).

Obama did well in NY-09, but he was probably expected to do a little better. This should be an interesting district to watch in 2012. Obviously it is still solidly Democratic.

OKLAHOMA

OK-02 Boren (D): Kerry 41%, Obama 34%
OK-03 Lucas (R): Kerry 28%, Obama 27%

Lucas' district is just hopelessville for Democrats.

Boren's district used to be the most Democratic of all Oklahoma districts and the only one actually represented by a Democrat. Obama dropped significantly in the Second, however.

Oddly enough, the district borders Arkansas, the other area where Obama dropped substantially from Kerry levels.

Obama picked up substantially in OK-05, though, which kept his statewide numbers at Kerry levels. If Democrats can maintain that kind of performance in Oklahoma City, it may be possible to make some noise either in OK-05 when incumbent Republican Mary Fallin runs for Governor, or at the statewide level, assuming that Oklahoma Democrats can start performing well in OK-02 again.

PENNSYLVANIA

PA-04 Altmire (D): Kerry 45%, Obama 44%
PA-12 Murtha (D): Kerry 51%, Obama 49%
PA-18 Murphy (R): Kerry 46%, Obama 44%

The Appalachian areas of Western Pennsylvania generally were not kind to Obama, relative to Kerry. The exception is PA-03, Kathy Dahlkemper's district.

Obama performed extremely well in the eastern half of the state, which generally canceled out this effect.

At other levels, however, Democrats did well here in 2008. Altmire won what was expected to be a tough reelection bid quite handily, and Kathy Dahlkemper picked up a House seat from a Republican incumbent with remarkable ease.

So Obama's performance in western PA shouldn't stop Democrats from campaigning hard in the region, nor from taking a shot at Tim Murphy (PA-18) if the right candidate comes along.

SOUTH CAROLINA

SC-03 Barrett (R): Kerry 35%, Obama 35%

Bush's margin over Kerry was actually smaller than McCain's over Obama. This is a ridiculously tough district for Democrats, and that won't change any time soon.

TENNESSEE

TN-01 Roe (R): Kerry 31%, Obama 29%
TN-02 Duncan (R): Kerry 35%, Obama 34%
TN-03 Wamp (R): Kerry 38%, Obama 37%
TN-04 Davis (D): Kerry 41%, Obama 34%
TN-06 Gordon (D): Kerry 40%, Obama 37%
TN-08 Tanner (D): Kerry 47%, Obama 43%

Some tough numbers here, especially in the Dem-held districts.

When Tennessee native son Al Gore was on the Presidential ticket in 2000, he actually got 49% in Davis and Gordon's districts, and 51% in Tanner's. Numbers have since cratered in all three.

It's still possible for Democrats to do well in these districts, including black Democrats. Harold Ford Jr. won Tanner's district and narrowly lost Davis' in his 2006 Senate race.

Tennessee would be one candidate for a substantial Obama bounceback in 2012, provided he doesn't destroy the world by then.

TEXAS

Because Bush was the native-son candidate, we used his numbers against Gore (a stronger candidate than Kerry, and a Southerner) as a better barometer, in an attempt to cancel out some of the native-son factor.

TX-01 Gohmert (R): Gore 33%, Obama 31%
TX-04 Hall (R): Gore 34%, Obama 30%
TX-08 Brady (R): Gore 31%, Obama 26%
TX-11 Conaway (R): Gore 25%, Obama 22%
TX-12 Granger (R): Gore 36%, Obama 36%
TX-13 Thornberry (R): Gore 26%, Obama 23%
TX-14 Paul (R): Gore 36%, Obama 33%

These are the megachurch areas. Obama underperformed Kerry in two of these districts, Gohmert's and Brady's.

Democrats probably aren't going to do much in any of these districts at a high level (federal, statewide or presidential). This is the part of the state, and the country where we've been getting slaughtered for decades.

There is a bright side. Generally, Obama did significantly better than Gore and Kerry in most Texas districts, and there have been some very, very good trends in some. One example is Kenny Marchant's district (TX-24), where Gore lost 68-32, but Obama was very near a single digit-loss, losing the district 55-44.

West Virginia

WV-03 Rahall (D): Kerry 46%, Obama 42%

West Virginia generally sees pretty good Democratic performance, at the federal and statewide levels, but not this year. That shouldn't change too much, and the state should still favor Democrats at most levels (if not the top level).

Here's a weird quirk: the West Virginia district which most strongly supported Obama is held by a Republican, Shelley Moore Capito. Obama got 44% in WV-02, Capito's district.

Overview

So, every district in the country in which Kerry outperformed Gore Obama is in either McCain's home state, Kerry's home state, Appalachia, the South, or NY-09.

One of these things is not like the other, of course, and any theories on the Kerry/Obama numbers in NY-09 are welcome.

As for the South and Appalachia, not all Democrats are doomed in these areas (though some are trending away from the party) and not all parts of these states were hostile to Obama (who won Florida, and surged in Texas).

Two of the reasons most often cited for Obama slippage are racism and general demographic shifts away from the Democratic Party. Four years of a reasonably successful Obama administration should do quite a bit to counter some of the former, so hopefully the numbers in 2012 should give us an indicator of where, and to what extent, the latter was a factor.