KS-Sen: Tiahrt Is In

Whoooo, doggies! Another exciting GOP primary on the docket pitting the relatively sane against the unrestrained maniacs!

In this corner, weighing in at a svelte 180 pounds*, the lean machine from Western Kansas, heart of the heartland, soul of the soulland...Jerry "Iron Man" Moran!!!

And in THIS corner, weighing in at 215 pounds**, the wild warrior from Wichita, Thunderous Todd Tiahrt!!!

"As I travel across Kansas listening and sharing my vision for a more prosperous state, I have been encouraged to take my leadership to the United States Senate in 2010," Tiahrt said at an event in Topeka, according to a statement issued by his campaign.

"I am resolute in my determination to take on tough battles in Washington to get things done for the great people of Kansas," he said. "I stand before you today announcing that I am now a candidate for the United States Senate."

So with two Republicans squaring off in the primary, what's the lay of the land look like for them?

Well, Moran is...not a moderate, certainly, but a reasonable, thoughtful guy who occasionally bucks party orthodoxy. He voted against No Child Left Behind, and against the troop "surge" in Iraq. He also had this delicious quote earlier in the week:

The day after filing to run for U.S. Senate, Rep. Jerry Moran told a Wichita audience that President Obama may be easier to work with than President George W. Bush was.

In a speech to the Agri-Business Council of Wichita, Moran said Friday that he's seeing "a different approach" from the White House and welcomes it after years of partisan fighting.

"The times I interacted with President Bush, generally, I'd get summoned to the White House because I disagreed with something that the president was for," said Moran, a Hays Republican. "He kind of lectured. It was about 'are you with me or against me' in the days of President Bush."

Now, that sounds pretty reasonable to most of us...and I'd imagine most Kansans get the sentiment behind it, conservative though they might be.

Not the kind of thing that might go over well in a GOP primary, though.

Tiahrt, however, fits into the mold of the man he seeks to succeed, retiring Sen. Sam Brownback - he might even be sufficiently conservative that he could be beaten by a Democrat.

"Tiahrt running for seat is ironically helpful for Democrats," said Burdett Loomis, a professor of political science at University of Kansas and longtime observer of state politics. "If Tiahrt gets the nomination, the Democratic nomination is really worth something to anyone who could track funding. Tiahrt is perceived as quite a social conservative, and he doesn’t have terrific recognition outside his district. Moran has a much broader identification around the state."

Who might that Democrat be? The A-list of Democratic candidates pretty much starts and ends with Kathleen Sebelius; it's not easy to find great candidates for Senate when not a single Democrat has won election to the Senate in John McCain's lifetime.

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) reportedly is weighing a Senate bid. Sebelius's candidacy would provide the eventual Republican candidate with a tough race against a popular Democrat -- and give Kansas Democrats an extraordinary opportunity to send one of their own to the Senate. The only Democrat ever elected to represent Kansas in the upper chamber was Sen. George McGill. McGill won a race to fill a vacant seat in 1930, then won a full term in 1932 but lost a reelection bid in 1939 and failed to reclaim a seat in three subsequent tries.

The Governor has to deal with the state's budget woes before turning her attention to the Senate race...and she's also in the mix for Secretary of Health and Human Services, now that Town-Car Tom is on the outs.

Though Tiahrt is the avowed right-winger in the race, Moran actually starts out with an edge in the primary:

Rep. Jerry Moran starts as the frontrunner for the GOP Senate nod in Kansas, according to new polling done for his campaign. Moran, who has held the massive central-western 1st district since 1996, holds a 41 percent to 25 percent edge over fellow Rep. Todd Tiahrt in a poll conducted by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies. "While it is still very early in the primary campaign, it is currently a lot better to be Jerry Moran than it is to be Todd Tiahrt," Bolger wrote in the polling memo.

This brings us, finally, to the prospect of two open House seats in Kansas.

Forget about Moran's seat. At R+20, it's virtually hopeless to try and win it against all but the most repulsive Sali-esque right-wingers.

Tiahrt's own seat is pretty tough - R+12.2 - but it has been represented by Democrats in the past, including Tiahrt's predecessor, former Congressman (and Secretary of Agriculture) Dan Glickman.

It will be tough going, but there are a few good potential candidates; KS blogger Kansas Jackass offers the names of State Reps. Raj Goyle (who defeated a Republican incumbent by 12 points in 2006 and cruised to reelection in 2008) and Jim Ward, and Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer.

Fortunately, as with the Senate race, there should be a bitter primary on the Republican side. Hopefully in each race, we'll have a candidate strong enough to beat the tough odds we've always faced in the state.

* - I have no idea if this is true, or how much Jerry Moran weighs
** - Same with Tiahrt.